tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post6506356967210841740..comments2024-03-08T08:55:52.985-08:00Comments on Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest: When the truth is found to be lies, and all the joy within you dies...Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-63522954562182951882010-06-03T21:57:04.271-07:002010-06-03T21:57:04.271-07:00the pm paper price will collapse, you will see phy...the pm paper price will collapse, you will see physical shortages as the paper contract of gold falls until they are all cash settleted.<br />08 was your opportunity to see this. long physical short paper.<br /><br />In the event of a large enough default, the entire world of paper gold trading will be forced into full cash settlement. The question will be presented: "if there isn't enough gold around to settle these commitments, then there isn't any point in letting the price rise further to effect still no metal settlement",,,,,,, "This was a contract trading market anyway, not a gold market"! Further, the international banking industry, in accords with their governments, will enforce a kind of "position limit" on the amount of gold liability they or their customers can carry. Both long and short. It will have nothing to do with the exchanges, rather it will be a bookkeeping problem being addressed by the banks. Still, it will impact the illusion price we use for gold,,,, downward. The net effect of this will be just the opposite of what paper gold players expect as positions are "force liquidated" prior to even a "cash settlement". This sudden dumping of major contract commitments onto the markets will drive the cash settlement price of gold,,,,, ?.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-17484297471389223512010-06-02T21:28:20.887-07:002010-06-02T21:28:20.887-07:00I take it you are talking about P.M.s ("once-...I take it you are talking about P.M.s ("once-in-a-multi-generational opportunity is about to present itself"). You qoute Sinclair and have an open spot price running on your site. Unlike the "Garth" who is always disparging us as bullion bunnies or tin foil hatters. Garth you can not eat stocks or bonds all that ink will kill even a politcian. Prepare for an explosion in P.M.s this summer or fall or spring pssst when ever it happens don't forget you heard it from me first.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-53011582285242688782010-05-31T23:42:35.031-07:002010-05-31T23:42:35.031-07:00So what will 'explode in value' in this en...So what will 'explode in value' in this environment?<br /><br />Also, what will the future hold for this blog once the 'massive correction' is well under way? I hope you keep talking real estate primarily, but evolve into something unique and helpful.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />MikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-44826391836400966492010-05-31T18:19:12.791-07:002010-05-31T18:19:12.791-07:00so if the government gave the banks 100-200b then ...so if the government gave the banks 100-200b then isn't that almost the same as cmhc buying the mortgages, its not like the banks are taking the risk yet. <br />with the only difference being that the banks are making a bit more with the raise in interest rates and they forced the gov to change the laws a bit for a min of 10to1 leverage and lowering how much people can borrow based on their income.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-80188792254740436242010-05-31T18:10:04.916-07:002010-05-31T18:10:04.916-07:00CMHC stopped *buying* mortgages directly - yes... ...CMHC stopped *buying* mortgages directly - yes... that was the "IMPP" program where Flaherty gave $100B-$200B or so to the banks.<br /><br />CMHC definitely has not stopped *insuring* highly-leveraged and extended-amortization mortgages.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-10341545075133570872010-05-31T16:25:14.059-07:002010-05-31T16:25:14.059-07:00according to http://www.chpc.biz/index.htm the CMH...according to http://www.chpc.biz/index.htm the CMHC stopped buying mortgages in april 2010 which is why the banks raised the 5 year fix to now follow the 10 year CDN bond.<br /><br />CMHC quit buying mortgages out of the market on April 1st and so banks, now have to rely on the Bond Market to value debt.<br /><br />wondering if this is true because i haven't seen a link for this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-41673852313802159522010-05-31T06:07:43.770-07:002010-05-31T06:07:43.770-07:00Great post... those are some seriously scary estim...Great post... those are some seriously scary estimates from that mortgage broker in the article (average age of first-time buyer being 25-32, average income $45k, and this is 70% of the market!).<br /><br />I will correct one point though:<br /><br />"average equity as a share of home value was down to 6% — from 48% in 2003"<br /><br />This is not an accurate statistic. It is an often-misquoted number from this blog post:<br /><br />http://americacanada.blogspot.com/2009/07/cmhc-and-our-government.html<br /><br />Bigger chart here:<br /><br />http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_0YOsyi5WbLY/SmTDnZtunCI/AAAAAAAAAFs/Ry833Eeho_0/s1600-h/Home+Equity+5%25.Bmp<br /><br />The values show in that chart are not actual market data -- they are some goofy "what if" scenario that CMHC put in a report to try and show the concept of mortgage holders gaining equity over time. I believe that CMHC wanted to show this as a positive thing, but that chart has been used on countless blogs to try and show a sudden decline in down payments.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com