tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post8703371326988407521..comments2024-03-08T08:55:52.985-08:00Comments on Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest: Shooting the messengerUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-1610338745539828282012-11-05T13:10:13.326-08:002012-11-05T13:10:13.326-08:00Anyone can see that this is just the beggining of ...Anyone can see that this is just the beggining of RE inventory build up. It will compound tear over year from now on. Then on top of that if we have a slight increase in interest rates? Watch out. It will be a slow bleed not a big pop I predict. <br /><br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-58240343719538407092012-11-05T08:10:06.922-08:002012-11-05T08:10:06.922-08:00Prospective studies and retrospective studies have...Prospective studies and retrospective studies have their own problems. But overall, anyone who has been trained in good experimental design and actually has done _real_ research, will agree with you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-87049765674293133002012-11-04T21:56:55.040-08:002012-11-04T21:56:55.040-08:00"No offence. An argument has to be supported ..."No offence. An argument has to be supported with empirical data. It has to be evidence based and done prospectively, not retrospectively , (You can take any statistics and manipulate the information to support a story, if done after the fact- retrospectively)"<br /><br />I spent 15 years as a scientist doing basic and R&D research. The whole scientific method is based on retrospective analysis and forming a hypothesis that is typically based on previous evidence and knowledge (housing bubbles have been caused by easy credit and correct), proposing an experiment (looking at sales data) which not only proves or disproves your hypothesis but hopefully a window into why, and then you do the experiment. You form a conclusion based on the evidence not the other way around.JRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-44523317612301507972012-11-04T18:18:22.039-08:002012-11-04T18:18:22.039-08:00"Everything is a result of supply and demand....<i>"Everything is a result of supply and demand. "</i><br /><br />It turns out this particular comment is correct. But not in the way the author thinks.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-84941938683589204132012-11-04T18:07:28.490-08:002012-11-04T18:07:28.490-08:00It would be a simple exercise to collate and parse...It would be a simple exercise to collate and parse the data this person wants, alas the data are behind a firewall and available only to those with connections to Realtors.<br /><br />Until that changes and the sales data are made public, don't be surprised if the portrayals of the market appear biased.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-39248948777004245062012-11-04T17:33:47.271-08:002012-11-04T17:33:47.271-08:00I forgot to mention almost the entire print indust...I forgot to mention almost the entire print industry in the city. <br /><br />Read a local paper and check out how many real estate ads there are. They are the only ones keeping these papers alive...Land Baronnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-68016202419059305112012-11-04T17:16:47.310-08:002012-11-04T17:16:47.310-08:00The entire rainbow of people are leaving! Once RE ...The entire rainbow of people are leaving! Once RE prices start to crash the whole region will be screwed as there is no other major industry to support the population.<br /><br />Too many people in Van are employed by the RE industry: <br />Realtors,mortgage brokers,construction workers,landscapers,interior designers, architects, home improvement stores, lawyers, notaries, home/building inspectors...and all the offshoots of those professions. <br /><br />What did I miss? ;)<br />Land Baronnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-70044470403159270642012-11-04T16:25:11.537-08:002012-11-04T16:25:11.537-08:00in realtor speak, it's coded language - white ...in realtor speak, it's coded language - white people leaving is of little consequence, they think..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-66996296732679171782012-11-04T15:50:38.400-08:002012-11-04T15:50:38.400-08:00The only thing better than a representative sample...The only thing better than a representative sample is data on the whole damn population.<br /><br />Take it from a benchwork scientist- a large sample is good. The whole population is enough.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-85435823429603961292012-11-04T13:58:18.893-08:002012-11-04T13:58:18.893-08:00"(There are many more people coming into BC, ..."(There are many more people coming into BC, then leaving, and not just immigration statistics)"<br /><br />Say what? Actually BC is losing people inter-provincially. Land Baronnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-51140757360611478942012-11-04T13:08:48.775-08:002012-11-04T13:08:48.775-08:00Mr. Shameless Realtor Shill just listed a bunch of...Mr. Shameless Realtor Shill just listed a bunch of knife catchers and held them up as examples of winners at the game of life.<br /><br />whatever floats your boatRusty is Amusednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-77398568269385714152012-11-04T12:49:09.662-08:002012-11-04T12:49:09.662-08:00This person had aceess to all sales and yet presen...This person had aceess to all sales and yet presented a random set of picks. Could have easily presented the average for all sales and not made exactly the error that the data points presented were purported to be making.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-63556983645264136282012-11-04T12:41:30.356-08:002012-11-04T12:41:30.356-08:00It occurs to me that Will sets up a bunch of straw...It occurs to me that Will sets up a bunch of strawman arguments, but then can't even knock them down successfully.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-28670376722719384052012-11-04T10:09:56.419-08:002012-11-04T10:09:56.419-08:00The Province just ran an article on how heavily in...The Province just ran an article on how heavily indebted BC'ers are.<br /><br />Average individual in BC is almost $38,000 in (non-mortgage related) debt.<br /><br />Almost 45% got there by "overextension, financial mismanagement, and unexpected expenses."<br /><br />Says a lot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5936637281134795592.post-59713790582707058322012-11-04T08:56:50.748-08:002012-11-04T08:56:50.748-08:00> It has to be evidence based and done prospect...> It has to be evidence based and done prospectively, not retrospectively , (You can take any statistics and manipulate the information to support a story, if done after the fact- retrospectively) <br /><br />OK, fine. Let's find lets say ~100 randomly chosen currently listed houses each of the cities of the GVRD. Then follow them until they are sold. Anything that doesn't get sold is simply taken off the list (the bias this introduces will be noted.)<br /><br />Let the data set speak for itself.<br /><br />Village whisperer- you gonna take this guy up on his challenge?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com