Thurs Post #1: You gotta know when to hold... know when to fold. Speculators bailing and taking a loss - UPDATED

We've covered properties in Vancouver that are listing 23% below assessed value and houses in Richmond selling for 25% below assessed value, but there are other less dramatic sales taking place that are worth noting.

More and more we are hearing stories about speculators abandoning their 'investments', cutting their losses and getting out of the market.

A couple of examples for you.

First up is...

3341 West 33rd Avenue in Vancouver

It's billed as perfect for Investors or Builders:

Investor or Builder Alert! This house is situated on a large 56' x 130.59' lot in a wonderful neighbourhood. Main floor features include a gracious entrance with cross-hall living room and dining room, oak floors, leaded glass windows, a comfy kitchen and den with 3 bedrooms up, recreation room, office and another bedroom down, this house offers great accommodation. Close to excellent schools (St Georges, Crofton House, Prince of Wales), shopping, parks and Dunbar Community Centre. Move in, rent out or build your dream home on this 7313 sf property.

Presumably this is why someone bought the property in February 2012 when they snapped this house off the market for $1,958,000. I guess they thought they got a good deal because the property is assessed at $1,986,100, so they bought it for below assessed value (click on images to enlarge):

But the buyer's bullish sentiment has turned because as you can see in the above screen shot, the house has been back on the market for $1,988,000.

Lucky for him, a greater fool has been found.  He bought for $1,958,000 and he sold it this week for $1,933,000.

That represents a loss of $100,000 in less than 9 months.

And while it isn't a property selling for 23% below assessed value, it is an example of how a house has sold twice this year below assessed value, each time lower than the time before.

Another example of a speculator getting burned is...

3475 West 26th Ave in Vancouver

From the description:

True quality and attention to detail is the best way to describe this beautiful 4 bed, 3 1/2 bath Dunbar Craftsman home. Showing better than new with open living gourmet kitchen, beautiful hardwood floors, mouldings & built-in cabinetry.Very generously sized bedrooms incl. huge master with bright and spacious en-suite and walk-in closet. Quality features include in-floor radiant hot water heat on all 3 levels, built-in speakers for sound on main & upper floors, granite counters throughout and newly renovated basement with 8 1/2 ft. ceilings, bar, surround sound & full bath. Basement has its own outside access and could be easily suited. Extremely private professionally landscaped back garden and 2 car garage. Steps to Lord Kitchener Elem.

Now this house was only built in 2003, so no developing or upgrades to be done here. So you have to figure when our latest speculative investor grabbed this one, he was simply hoping to play the flip.  

In 2011 he paid $2,410,000.

Assessed value? $2,286,000.

It was sold this month for $2,185,000.

That's a loss for our speculator of $225,000 off the original purchase price, a cost in commission of $66,000 and property transfer tax of $46,000.  Total loss: $337,000 in 16 months.

Then there is...

4490 Blenheim Street in Vancouver

From the description:

BEAUTIFUL BIG LOT AT CORNER of W 29TH AVE & Blenheim in PRESTIGEOUS MacKenzie Heights area! Lot SIZE 56.10X122, UPDATED home with newer kitchen and S/S appliances, newer flooring & bathrooms, newer double-glazed windows, functional layout with 4 generous sized bdrm up, elegant living and dining rm, 2 bdrm suite in bsmt is great for mortgage helper. CLOSE TO ST. GEORGE'S & CROFTON HOUSE PRIVATE SCHOOLS, PW HIGH SCHOOL, UBC, shopping and transit. To hold or build a 4790 sf new home, MUST SEE!

4490 Blenheim is only assessed at $1,716,000...

... but it was one of those properties where you really get to see the speculative rolling of the dice.

4490 was bought in July 2011 for $1,920,000.  That's right, in July 2011 they paid $200,000 MORE than assessed value.

In January 2012 our speculator tried to flip the property by listing it for $2,380,000.  But no greater fool was forthcoming.

It finally sold this month for $1,630,000.

With realtor commissions and property transfer tax, that's a loss of over $400,000.

In all three cases the sale price is not a stunning drop below assessed value, but unlike Boomer Trigger types (who have sold dramatically below assessed value and still reap a healthy profit), these are speculators who are cutting their losses and getting out of the market.

And that's point.  It's another canary in the proverbial coal mine.

Experienced investors are starting to accept they have mistimed the market.

Rather than hold and wait, they realize the future is only going to get worse and the collapsing market is  not going to turn around anytime soon.

So these guys are taking the hit and getting out before it get's worse.  More significantly... they aren't lining up to buy 'investment' properties either.

In it's own way, it will have a significant impact on our market as well.

(hat tip to Makaya on VCI for these 3 examples)

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