Now it's the Chinese Millionaires in Richmond banding together and threatening to sue.

In our last post (Chinese Millionaires In Beijing Upset Canada Terminating Investor Program, Threaten to Sue) we told you about how the Federal Government of Canada, in last month's Federal budget, had cancelled the International Investor Program (IIP).

Under the scheme, would-be migrants worth a minimum of $1.6 million loaned the government $800,000 interest-free for a period of five years. The simplicity and low relative cost of the risk-free scheme made it the world's most popular wealth immigration programme.

In response 10 investor applicants  in Beijing held a news conference to plead to the Government of Canada not to dismiss the pending 45,500 applications that had been frozen in the system.

Their desire? Process those applications before terminating the program. Those investor applicants (some of whom had applied five years ago) also stated that they were discussing their options with lawyers in Canada and whether to sue for compensation for the years they had been waiting.

Well now it appears it's not just applicants in Beijing who keen to litigate.

40 Chinese community groups in the Vancouver suburb of Richmond gathered this week to also protest the cancelation of Program - and to discuss their own plans to sue the Federal Government.

According the the Richmond News:

Chinese community groups gathered in Richmond to protest the cancelation of the Investor Class Program in last month’s federal budget, and to consolidate their efforts to fight, and potentially sue, the government.

Banners with messages such as, “We love Canada. We are willing to contribute” and “Say no to the latest changes of immigration policy” provided the backdrop Wednesday for the six-person panel, which addressed the crowd about the economic implications of cancelling a program which expedites immigration for the wealthy.

Chris Ho, an immigration lawyer, who was the only speaker to address the crowd in English, pointed out the mixed messages being sent by the government in regards to investment and immigration.

“The immigration minister had announced ... that a new investor program would be coming. That was in January of 2014. In February, we have the minister of finance announce that the program is being cancelled.”

In justifying the cancellation, Minister of Immigration Chris Alexander is reported as saying, “there is also little evidence that immigrant investors as a class are maintaining ties to Canada or making a positive economic contribution to the country.

“Overall, immigrant investors report employment and investment income below Canadian averages and pay significantly lower taxes over a lifetime than other categories of economic immigrants.”

Ho argues that the minister has no evidence. “Do we have a very conclusive study or information that can point us to that? I don’t think so,” he said.

But the paying of tax isn't the only angle the group is pursuing. There is, in their words, "the issue of expectations":

“There is a doctrine called legitimate expectation. This is not new. For someone who has already filed an application, they would expect someone to deal with the application. You can’t just cancel the application without doing anything.”

The groups also speculated on the economic impact of the cancellations:

Steve Kou, a representative from the business community, gave his speech in Chinese, but later answered questions in English about the economic impact of the lost of the investor program.

“If the cancellation happens, there are no new direct investors in Canada or B.C. So if there is no more money coming to Canada, the growth rate will slow further,” said Kou.

Kou stated that the cancellation would have a huge impact on the B.C. economy, in almost all areas, starting with real estate.

“The first area would be real estate. If you cannot immigrate to Canada, why buy the properties here?”

And in an attempt to leave no racist card unplayed, the groups also threw out this beauty:

Sophia Huang, another lawyer on the panel, challenged the government’s attitude, stating that Chinese immigrants came to Canada 125 years ago as railroad builders, and paid a head-tax, which was recently apologized for, but now they are saying “please don’t come.”

“We are saying, ‘Listen, you need to communicate with us better. We would like to come here, this is our country, not only your country, it’s ours. Our Chinese ancestors built this.’”

The coalition, supported by more than 40 community organizations, is calling for supporters to vote for people who will speak for the Chinese voice. It is also threatening a possible class action lawsuit for those affected by the immigration changes.

Oh my.

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Tues Post #2: Chinese Millionaires In Beijing Upset Canada Terminating Investor Program, Threaten to Sue

Last month, while we were enjoying a bit of a break, one of the bigger news stories was the fact that Canada axed the Immigrant Investor Program (IIP).

The announcement, delivered by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty as part of the government's new budget, meant that an estimated 45,500 mainland Chinese in the queue for visas in Hong Kong would have their applications "eliminated" and their fees returned.

The program had been in a state of limbo since 2012, when applications to the scheme were frozen.

Under the scheme, would-be migrants worth a minimum of $1.6 million loaned the government $800,000 interest-free for a period of five years. The simplicity and low relative cost of the risk-free scheme made it the world's most popular wealth migration programme.

But as Flaherty noted in his budget speech which axed the program:

"For decades, [the investor scheme] has significantly undervalued Canadian permanent residence, providing a pathway to Canadian citizenship in exchange for a guaranteed loan that is significantly less than our peer countries require."

The Immigrant Investor Programme, which has brought about 185,000 migrants to Canada, was instrumental in facilitating an exodus of rich Hongkongers in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown and in the run-up to the handover. More than 30,000 Hongkongers immigrated using the scheme. About 67,000 mainlanders have migrated to Canada under the IIP.

Many believe that influx flowed largely to Vancouver and was instrumental in rapidly inflating our current housing bubble.

Ian Young, who writes for the South China Morning Post, attempted to quantify what the elimination of the program might mean for Vancouver real estate:

High property prices are the defining factor of life in this city. Yet despite a wealth of punditry, few have tried to actually calculate the potential impact of the demise of the millionaire migration scheme, which has brought tens of thousands of rich Chinese and others to Vancouver. 

So here goes.

From 2005 to 2012, the federal IIP brought 36,951 rich people to British Columbia. That’s an average of 4,619 per year, representing 1,340 households at current averages under the scheme. A 2011 study showed 90.4 per cent buy homes, suggesting 1,211 actual purchasing households per year have been removed from the Vancouver market by last week’s decision (since almost the totality of BC investor migrants live in its largest city). This is equivalent to only 4.25 per cent of the 28,524 residential sales in greater Vancouver last year.

At this stage it’s crucial to note that reducing the sheer number of sales doesn’t necessarily move a market down (the worst week of the 2008 stock market crash saw record trading volume in New York). But extracting buyers who pay above prevailing prices certainly does.

And I can think of six “known unknowns”, five of which will undoubtedly increase the impact of those 1,211 lost households.

First the relatively good news - for owners, anyway. We don’t know how many would-be IIP arrivals will find some other way of getting to Vancouver. Some will. Most probably won’t, because if options other than a years-long queue for the costly IIP existed, they would have taken them.

And now for the five scary bits, that will assuredly magnify the impact of those lost purchasing households.

• 1. Investor migrants are rich, so they buy more costly properties, and it’s the price of expensive detached homes that fuel Vancouver’s market. Condo and townhouse prices rose by a third from 2005 to 2012, but detached prices doubled. Under the most recent IIP benchmarks, principal applicants must have been worth a minimum of C$1.6 million. Compare that to the Vancouver average household worth of C$662,600 (Environics Analytics).  

• 2. Some IIP households buy more than one property in Vancouver. 

• 3. Some high-value purchases have a cascade effect through the market. For example, when a Chinese investor immigrant pays C$3 million for an elderly widow’s rancher on Cambie Street, that sale triggers the purchase of a three-bedroom townhouse in Kitsilano and down payments on condos for her two adult children. Such things happen - not always, but sometimes.  

• 4. Now for one of the two biggest concerns. Our calculations so far only cover actual arriving immigrants. But how many of the 65,000 would-be immigrants who were dumped from the IIP queue last week had already bought in Vancouver? Of the applicants from 2009-2011 who made up the bulk of the backlog, 62.8 per cent were bound for BC. That’s an estimated 11,866 households. Not only have these households been removed from the pool of future purchasers, it’s reasonable to assume that some will soon be liquidating existing Vancouver holdings.  

• 5. The final unknowable is human nature. Already talk of an impending disaster in the market is a feature of Chinese-language forums. How many non-IIP owners will head for the exits too, and how fast will they do so? 

To be sure, there is no way of telling how much these five factors will come into play. But let’s make some conservative assumptions regarding the first three. Imagine that homes bought by IIP households cost twice as much as the average residential sale; considering that the rich Chinese who make up 81 per cent of Vancouver’s investor migrants are concentrated in expensive neighbourhoods of Richmond and the Westside, that’s not a stretch. Now imagine that each home-purchasing IIP household buys not one, but two properties (over how many years? Irrelevant, since the effect will be annualised over time). And let’s say that an IIP purchase triggers another purchase that would not otherwise have occurred in 25 per cent of cases.

The annual effect of the extraction of those 4.25 per cent of sales doesn’t look so insignificant anymore. On a dollar basis, our scenario balloons the figure to 21.25 per cent in lost sales per year. This estimate applies across the entire market; the effect will be magnified in the Westside and Richmond.

The actual impact remains to be seen and it's a story local real estate watchers are following very closely.

Which brings us to todays developments (and you gotta love this).

At a news conference in Beijing yesterday, 10 IIP investor applicants pleaded to the Government of Canada not to dismiss the 45,500 applications that had been frozen in the system.  Their desire?  Process those applications before terminating the program.

It seems while waiting for their approval, many of those 45,500 applicants had already come to Vancouver, bought homes and had enrolled their children in schools here.

Father-of-two Yu Qingxin, who manages commercial buildings, schools and hospitals in China, said he had already bought a house in west Vancouver for nearly $2 million Canadian dollars ($1.8 million) in preparation to emigrate… 

Another applicant, Du Jun, said he had moved his child out of the Chinese school system to a Canadian school near Beijing. Now, after two years studying at this school, it is almost impossible for his child to return to the Chinese education system, he said.

But now, with the termination of the IIP and the pending applications terminated, investor applicants (some of whom had applied five years ago) are discussing their options with lawyers in Canada and whether to claim compensation for the years they had been waiting.

Immigration consultant Larry Wang said that Canadian government's policy was "unjustified" and the investor applicants want Canada to "correct its mistake."

"They are not refugees. They can have a very good life in China. They just want to have a better life in Canada," said Wang, a Beijing-born Canadian.

Wang said it was Canada's right to stop its investor program, but it should not disqualify candidates who had already applied.

Umm… perhaps the issue here is that those applicants shouldn't have considered their application a fait accompli?

If you moved to Canada before being approved and then you application was, in effect denied, is Canada really to blame for your gamble?

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