Days go by...

I'm itching to talk more about inflation and Quantative Easing as the investment community sits on pins and needles in anticipation of QE 2 on November 3rd, but let's switch back to real estate here in the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest.

Days go by and still no movement from sellers or buyers.

Cruise through Yaletown and you can't help but marvel at all the developments moving along, soon to come onto the market. Developers must be freaking out.

For four consecutive months real estate numbers have been abysmal. Not only are they down 40% from the same time last year (and October is shaping up to make it 5 months in a row), but the totals are the lowest in the last 10 - 15 years.

But that horror show is nothing compared to what is shaping up in the new units category for October.

Thanks to Inventory, who as posted numbers in the comments section once again over on VCI, we learn that October's numbers for brand new condos, townhouses and houses are absolutely falling off a cliff.

As of October 25th, total new units sold for the month sits at 131 which is an astonishing 70% below last years totals.

Zeroing in on new condo sales total sales as of October 25th is sitting at 62, which is 71% below last years totals.

The slow melt continues and sales of new units are completely cratering. It's 5 months and counting... the days go by.

Oct New unit sales

1994 = 379
1995 = 492
1996 = 450
1997 = 321
1998 = 266
1999 = 325
2000 = 212
2001 = 257
2002 = 336
2003 = 813
2004 = 490
2005 = 705
2006 = 391
2007 = 428
2008 = 158
2009 = 445
2010 = 131 (as of Oct 25: -70%)

Oct New Condo sales

1994 = 181
1995 = 322
1996 = 253
1997 = 159
1998 = 134
1999 = 217
2000 = 84
2001 = 130
2002 = 165
2003 = 606
2004 = 354
2005 = 478
2006 = 195
2007 = 262
2008 = 94
2009 = 219
2010 = 62 (as of Oct 25: -71%)

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Hitting the snooze button...

Last Thursday we commented how real estate sales in Vancouver are on track for another dismal month.

If the trend holds out, sales will once again be among the lowest in the last decade - the fifth consecutive such month.

But as the Vancouver Housing Blogger noted in the comments section of the Vancouver Condo Info blog (VCI), "not only will sales be the 2nd lowest over the last 10 Octobers, but listings will be the lowest in the last 5 years. If it were a hot market, sales would be booming. They’re not."

That's a stunning situation. Low listings and low sales.

Sellers are yanking their listings off the market and waiting until 2011. The hope is that the dearth of listings will re-ignite the market.

But with interest rates at their lowest levels in history, where are the buyers?

In 2009 prices had dropped by 10%. Emergency level interest rates combined with the 10% price drop drew many into the market.

But prices have not begun to drop yet.

As I have already mentioned, many observers anticipate ongoing minor price drops through October, November and December. Then, in the first half of 2011, you will probably start to see speculators, boomers, foreign holders, overextended locals and developers all come to the market.

By then we will probably be looking at 8-10 consecutive months of the worst sales in over a decade.

As VHB noted, "the Vancouver real estate market has hit the great snooze button."

Will the market wake up in Spring 2011 with a giant hangover?

Meanwhile in West Vancouver...

This isn't to say we aren't seeing price reductions, especially at the high end (where are those wealthy Asian buyers who will keep luxury prices where they belong?)

This Arthur Erickson built home at 1812 Palmerston Avenue was originally constructed as a four-bedroom family home but was renovated into a three-bedroom by the previous owners.

Sold in 2003 for $2,375,000, it has been laguishing for sale on the market for over six months with an asking price of $5,695,000.

Recognizing the current state of the market, the seller came down on his asking price and the home has sold for $4,750,000.

That's a drop of 17%.

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The slow melt meets the winter freeze.

So we're just about halfway through the month of October and we're on track for a 5th consecutive month wherein real estate sales are down more than 40% from last year.

And it's not just a case of comparing data to an outstanding sales year in 2009. Sales are on track to total 2,188 units for the entire month. Compare that to the totals over the past decade:

• Oct-2009 - 3704
• Oct-2008 - 1364
• Oct-2007 - 3028
• Oct-2006 - 2722
• Oct-2005 - 3099
• Oct-2004 - 2735
• Oct-2003 - 3765
• Oct-2002 - 2866
• Oct-2001 - 2379

Once again, with the exception of 2008, we are on track for the worst sales month in the past decade.

This comes as banks once again cut their five year rates so that mortgages are now among the lowest levels in history - and still real estate sales are sucking wind.

It comes at a time when wealthy Asians can come in and buy what they want without competition from locals - and still sales lag.

Nothing seems to be greasing the wheels of the market right now.

I wonder how many realtors will feel like they're getting a rock in their Hallowe'en sack this year?

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