Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Hey... did you hear? The Vancouver R/E decline is OVER!

Tis true folks. According to the real estate 'pumper-in-chief', CREA's Cameron Muir, "the number of new residential listings in the province has fallen 30% since April. With fewer new listings, total active listings are now on the decline, signaling that an end to the buyer’s market may be on the horizon."

Woohoo... perhaps Andruff was right and it IS time to pack in the blog.

Meanwhile let's turn our attention to the inflation that isn't (because government doesn't count it anymore).

The quantitative easing and stimulus money are working their way into the commodity sector which is allowing the dogs of inflation to slip their leashes and work their havoc.

Take a look at the way food prices are being driven to unseemly high levels once again just as they were in 2008.

Corn is coming up on $5.00, wheat is more than $7.00, soybeans are over $10, sugar is over $0.24/pound, cotton is closing in on $1.00, coffee is up near $2.00 pound wholesale (which is a 13 year high), cattle are just shy of $1.00/pound, bellies are trading over $1.50/pound for fresh product.

What does it all mean? It means the consumer is on the verge of watching his disposal income be decimated by high food prices. In Canada this comes at a time when most Canadians are living paycheque to paycheque and are saddled with the highest levels of household/mortgage debt ever. Disposable income is at an all time low. In the USA, a record number of Americans are on food stamps and are either unemployed or underemployed.

The only saving grace is that energy prices have not YET begun moving up alongside the rest of the commodity complex. But it's only a matter of time. When the crude complex gets involved you will see home heating bills, home cooling bills, industrial energy costs and gasoline prices join the list of soaring costs nationwide.

But don't worry. None of this counts towards the Consumer Price Index anymore. Thus... there is no inflation.

The technical term is 'Cost Push Inflation'. And it's insidious havoc is silently taking root.



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1 comment:

  1. Global TV did a piece on the housing market and had some R/E agent on with her 'client' saying most of the good deals over the summmer are gone, blah, blah blah. The Cam was interviewed with the usual 'here we go again' BS. Ridiculous! Also in any decline, it is never straight down; there will be upticks along the way, but the overall trend will still be evident.
    You are right about the food prices; my wife and I have noticed higher prices in the local markets over this time last year.