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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Everyone's a bear now - even Ozzie Jurock?



As mentioned several times over the last week, everyone seems to be coming to the realization that the Real Estate market is in for a correction.

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with the Bank of Montreal says, “while the timing of said slowdown remains up in the air (and it’s no foregone conclusion it will start this year), it is highly unlikely that Canada’s housing market can continue its recent winning ways.”

Porter’s colleague at BMO, senior economist Sal Guatieri, doesn’t expect the “nastier” turn, saying in a separate report that the market is losing steam, and that valuations remain a worry, but that there will still be “modest gains” in overall sales this year, along with steady prices.  "If you listen closely you can hear the sound of air seeping out of Canada's housing balloon," Guatieri said.

Jacques Marcil, senior economist of Toronto-Dominion Bank, believes housing markets will weigh on the economies of British Columbia and Ontario and he projected a “significant correction” this year, noting that the hot Vancouver market probably peaked in 2011.

Even the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported this week that sales last year climbed 5.9% from 2010, but slowed at the end of the year. Sales in December fell 12.7% from the same month a year earlier. And while prices were still up by 7.6%, the REBGV tells us they were 1.5% below their peak of June, 2011.

But perhaps most astonishing is to see even Ozzie Jurock cast disparaging words on the ever inflating real estate market.

Jurock headlines that Vancouver prices are the same this December over last December but then goes on to give you some very bearish analysis which includes some very uncharacteristic negative comparisons:

"Well, YES (Vancouver prices are the same this December over last December) ... BUT the December average price of $ 691,000 is a whopping $141,000 or a full 17% lower than the May 2011 average price, which clocked in at $834,000. In fact overall sales decreased 13% over last December but a WHOPPING 34.1% decrease over the 2,515 residential sales in December 2009. Sales of detached properties a decrease of 18.1% from the 769 detached sales recorded in December 2010, and a WHOPPING 30.2% decrease from the 902 units sold in December 2009."

Jurock even goes on to offer you some very bearish advice.  "If you are a seller - list now! Prices usually rise January to May as do sales... and fall after that. If you are a buyer... take your time... the market will not run away from you."

Imagine if everyone were to follow Ozzie's advice, i.e. a rush of listings while buyers patiently wait and stay away?

It could make for a very interesting spring.

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3 comments:

  1. The operative word is "whopping". Thesaurus needed STAT!

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  2. Ozzie has profited very handsomely from pumping the real estate market and getting many investors into bad investments and getting over leveraged.
    This man has no conscience. He changes his tune very easily!!!! In this case, I agree with Ozzie but I wouldn't trust anybody who has profits off the real estate market. They have vested interests.

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  3. What is Jurock's motivation for this analysis? Does he just not want to look foolish now that a likely decline in the market is being acknowledged by everyone else too?

    ReplyDelete