Tuesday, April 23, 2013

The latest from Richmond: sales expected to continue to languish due to "lack of buying interest"

Yesterday we shared with you realtor Larry Yatkowsky's stats which show inventory is hitting highs not seen in years, a pattern which Yatkowsky suggests might be "the hint of the century" about what's going to happen to the market.

Meanwhile, in Richmond, realtor James Wong is out with his latest monthly report on real estate. Wong regularly gives blunt market analysis for his readers and his latest mid-month report is no different.

Wong notes March had a much better sales performance than expected, but his prognosis is still bleak:
Richmond Home sales for March, 2013 at 280 units were 28% higher than the previous month sales of 219 homes. The much better sale performance was expected as seasonally the spring market upswing began in March. It came as a surprise that the total active listings in March, 2013 was about the same number of homes for sale in February. The overall months-of-inventory (MOI) at 9.74 was a slight improvement compared to 10.24 months in February. The drop in MOI was due to the improvement in the average 3-month sales for detached homes, townhouses and condos.
Richmond Real Estate Market Outlook:
The Months-of-inventory (MOI) in Richmond at 9.74 continues to favor buyers. 
Overall, the market sentiment is subdued, while home prices are expected to continue drifting lower due to the lack of buying interest.

Home sellers can take consolation that the pace at which new listings coming into the market in the first quarter of 2013 was more tempered than the same period for 2012. The current negative market sentiment will dampen buying interest, while the over supply of homes will drive home prices lower.

Richmond detached homes are expected to continue languishing due to the lack of buying interest.

There are currently 608 detached homes for sale in Richmond at prices above $1,000,000. With average past 3 months sale around 31 homes, the MOI is at 28.8 months. And for homes above $1,500,000, there are 350 homes available for sale. At an average past 3-month sale of 11 homes a month, there are 31.8 months of supply for homes over $1,500,000.

Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
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Please read disclaimer at bottom of blog.


  1. 3 sales in a month is 50% better then 2 sales for the previous month. Not that I disagree with anything he is saying but things need to be put into context historically.

  2. I wonder what Owen Biglund thinks? Dork!

  3. 958 houses in Richmond are $1 million and above. Because the local salaries cannot support the potential sales (20% down, $172,000 household income), it may take years (3-5 years, my guess) for foreign investors to absorb these houses.

  4. Are there any financial institutions that will actually provide an uninsured mortgage for that amount with that level of income?

  5. http://usawatchdog.com/real-estate-pump-and-dump-scheme-fabian-calvo/

    Do you think there will be a knock on effect of this in Canada?

  6. Foreign investors will chase the market up. When the market is trending downwards, they look else.

    This leaves the locals to absorb the inventory. Well, locals can't afford so guess what will happen? The moldy structures either sit and sit and sit or prices need to come down.

  7. Is this the same James Wong that said we were going to 2006 prices? In 2009? Prescient:


  8. In theory, he would've been right, if only the Federal gov't left amortizations at 25 years instead of increasing them to 40 years. What we're experiencing now would've happened in 09/10, but was just delayed due to manipulation.

  9. If you discount government intervention in your analysis of Canadian RE markets you're not paying attention.

  10. anyone out there have a recommendation for a real estate agent in the richmond area?

  11. Of course nothing over a million is selling. My colleague is a very well off lawyer, in his peak earning years, probably in the top 5% of earners in GV. He's looking to buy but can't afford anything over a million due to the 20% down payment. If he can't pay that, hardly anyone can. That million plus market is fecked, and not just in Richmond.

  12. 5542 Cornwall Drive - prime terra nova area in Richmond. Sold April 3, 2013 $1.095m. Tax assessment $1.417m. Owner is a real estate agent. On the market since April 2012. Originally asking $1.338m.

  13. Whisperer,

    Have a look at Garth's blog. More people in the FIRE industries playing silly buggers with the media.

    Don't they get it? It's a small, small, online world.

    1. It's almost becoming a sport, isn't it?

    2. hey, but as long as you put those "notes" at the bottom of the article "clarifying" things... you can print as much bullshit as you want.