CMHC insists there will be no housing crash in Canada

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) insists there will be no housing market crash in Canada.

CMHC has been saying for some time that it expects housing prices in most local markets will grow more slowly than they have been recently.

The Ottawa-based federal agency isn’t calling for a major decline, but its latest forecast suggests next year will be somewhat softer than estimates CMHC issued in June while 2012 may be somewhat stronger than previously expected.

(In other words, they keep getting it wrong and have to 'revise' their forecast constantly)

Mathieu Laberge, CMCH’s deputy chief economist, said:

“Balanced market conditions in most local housing markets will result in a slowing in house price growth”

Is that why they call it right now? A 'slowing in house price growth'?

(Prices never go down, you see... growth simply 'slows')

Contrast this with the normally always upbeat and optimistic Ozzie Jurock. On August 4th, Jurock pulled no punches in analyzing what is currently happening in the real estate market.  Rather than spin the numbers, he offered a very succinct (and negative) take on the drop in the average price.

The real estate market is down 12% on the average price - July over July ... but down a whopping 20% in price over May 2011!!!

July 2012 - $669,000 to July 2011 - $762,000: down 12%

July 2012 - $669,000 to May 2011 - $834,000: down 20% !!

Volume is down too. Listings are higher.

As Ozzie succinctly notes, the average is down 12% on a simply year to year comparison, but go back a couple of months more and it's down a full 20%.

So if a 20% decline in prices is a 'softening', what will they call a decline of 50%?

One thing we know for sure... they won't call it a 'crash'.

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