You have to know when to hold them...

Today the 'official' July 2010 real estate sales statistics were released for both Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

And as we posted on the weekend, the picture is not pretty.

How ugly is it, you ask?

“We didn’t anticipate this level of change,” said Deanna Horn, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board President.

Of course the inability of the Real Estate Boards to 'anticipate' is almost considered a joke on the real estate blogs, as this post over on VREAA illuminates.

As expected, the Greater Vancouver Residential Benchmark price is down for the third consecutive month:

April, 2010: $593,419
May, 2010: $590,662
June, 2010: $580,237
July, 2010: $577,074

Sales in July fell 45% from the same month last year, and prices have fallen 2.8% since peaking in April... not quite a 'crash' by any stretch of the imagination, but the endgame is clearly afoot.

According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) the supply of properties for sale has increased so significantly that the decline in sales now threatens to pull prices lower, with inventory levels 33% higher than this time last year.

In fact, the REBGV now calls Vancouver a “buyer’s market,” which seems odd because clearly people aren't buying.

Is this a temporary lull or the start of a significant drop in real estate values? That, of course, is the central question being debated by the R/E bulls and bears.

Once again I feel compelled to cast an eye towards Bob Rennie, Vancouver's anointed condo king.

His stunning marketing moves to slash prices by 40% in both the Okanagan and for condos in Vancouver at the luxury Fairfield Estates serve as a bellwether.

The market is changing and he is responding by attempting to stay ahead of the curve. Either Rennie is throwing away massive potential profits or he is facilitating significant reductions in advance of a bloodbath starting in earnest.

When the 'crash' starts with 40% reductions from the market's biggest player, the prognosis in Camp Rennie can't be very bright.

A good gambler knows when to hold... and when to fold.

And Rennie does not appear to be willing to up the ante.

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca

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July Stats

Over the course of the month we have blogged about dramatic reductions in real estate prices in the Okanagan, and Bob Rennie bringing dramatic reductions to the Fairmont Estates condos in downtown Vancouver.

Next week the R/E sales numbers for the month of July will be released and they will not paint a pretty picture.

Over at the blog Vancouver Condo Info, contributors to the comments section have been bringing us some of the numbers. I invite you to persue the comments section for all their contributions.

If the data is accurate, final sales numbers for total unit sales are down 45% from July 2009. The total number of unit sales is the 2nd lowest in a decade.

Here are the total unit sales for the month of July since 1995:

July = UNITS
1995 = 1978
1996 = 2100
1997 = 2303
1998 = 1816
1999 = 2181
2000 = 1710
2001 = 2737
2002 = 2759
2003 = 4140
2004 = 3114
2005 = 3825
2006 = 2802
2007 = 3955
2008 = 2215
2009 = 4197
2010 = 2297

Meanwhile the story in new home sales is even more dramatic. New home sales in July 2010 compared to July 2009 are down an astonishing 70%. The total number of new home sales for July 2010 is the lowest since 1995.

YEAR= UNITS
1995 = 296
1996 = 442
1997 = 350
1998 = 311
1999 = 298
2000 = 205
2001 = 288
2002 = 221
2003 = 488
2004 = 343
2005 = 724
2006 = 445
2007 = 503
2008 = 215
2009 = 441
2010 = 129

Earlier this month we profiled how the benchmark price on the west side of the City of Vancouver had dropped a dramatic $91,000 in the month of June.

Well the west side continues to get hammered.

According to figures supplied by real estate agent Larry Yatkowsky:

• Median price on the west side is down 8.6% in July (and almost 13% in the last 2 months),
• Average price is down 12.7% in July alone,
• Sales are down 60% from June,
• And price reductions have been 4 times greater than sales.

Mr. Yatokowsky offered the following comments on the current real estate market;

"The predominant factor is the slow drop in the number of listings combined with continuing price reductions. Prices appear to be dropping steadily and the number of listing mandates that are failing to sell are increasing. How many ‘failed to sell’ listings will we see in the weeks ahead – the numbers are climbing? How many come back to market to ‘try again’?

A great number of sellers still want to sell but buyers are reticent to jump in – they remain uncertain except for one thing – just are not ready to pay the prices sellers are asking. What is known is that the stronger hand being played by buyers is currently winning. Until sales begin to increase we can expect this state of market to continue. In the days and weeks ahead is that sellers will be forced to make further and substantial price adjustments before that happens."

And so it goes...

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca

Click 'comments' below to contribute to this post.

Please read disclaimer at bottom of blog.