They say all advertising is good advertising... how about a little notoriety?

'There's no such thing as bad publicity.' 

It's a famous phrase often associated with Phineas T. Barnum, the 19th century American showman and circus owner. Barnum was a self-publicist of the first order and never missed an opportunity to present his wares to the public.

The idea that no publicity can do harm is clearly open to question.

For someone seeking notoriety and a somewhat scandalous reputation, like Mae West in days gone by, or Paris Hilton in our era, that may be true.

Realtors often crave notoriety though. How else do you explain the antics of Cam Good or Ian Watt?

And certainly Watt has leveraged the car cam and youtube to that end.

So what happens when you set out to utilize youtube for attention and exposure, and you suddenly achieve a sudden surge of exactly what you were looking for... wouldn't it be cause to celebrate?

On Saturday we introduced you to Mary Cleaver and told you about several videos she had posted.

It appears her folksy youtube chat about the merits of Real Estate vs the stock market is garnering lots of attention. Specifically her dismissal of the mainstream media's commentary on the housing bubble and a pending collapse.

But is it too much attention?

After being bombarded with comments, Cleaver first disabled her comments section on youtube... and then she deactivated her youtube account altogether.

For the record, the youtube video description in her post (May 2012) where she countered the 'housing crash' stories on CBC's National back by insisting Vancouver isn't in an overheated market stated:

Contrary to general statements made regarding the real estate market in Canada, the Vancouver housing market is far from over-heated. April stats tell a story of lots of inventory and fewer sales than in both March of this year and April of 2011. With the exception of parts of East Vancouver, much of the city is in a balanced market and trending toward a buyer's market. Buyers find themselves with plenty to choose from, time to make a good selection, prices in many areas stable or even lower than in the last year or two, and historically low interest rates. For Greater Vancouver statistics for April, go to www.dexterrealty.com. For more information and to contact Mary, go to www.marycleaver.com

And her post in January 2012 offered this advice:

Q: I’m renting right now and thinking about buying my first condo, but price is a big concern. Is this a good time to buy?

A: I’ve had several questions asking about affordability in Vancouver. When it comes to housing, those two words are rarely spoken in the same breath. We live in one of the most beautiful, temperate, culturally diverse, exciting cities in the world. It should come as no surprise that it is expensive to live here and that housing prices are high compared to most regions in Canada.

The easy answer is that it is a good time to buy property when it is a good time for YOU. Are you keen to begin building equity and pay yourself instead of your landlord. Do you have a down payment saved or can you borrow money from a family member? Is your employment relatively secure?

There are several programs available to first-time home buyers that can save you money. Details on these incentives would fill a whole other column, but your REALTOR® can go through them with you and help you take full advantage.

But you want to know whether now is a good time in comparison to sometime in the future, so let’s look at current market conditions first, and then at interest rates.

What is the market for condos like? Is there a lot of supply? How does that affect prices?

Over most of the last ten years, Vancouver has been a seller’s market. Anyone who’s been in the market to buy property during the hottest times knows all too well how that goes: seeing 19 pairs of shoes at the front door at an open house; dealing with the stress of multiple offers; bringing our home inspectors along with us to showings, and listings that are sold before we even get a chance to see them. I very clearly remember the frustration of searching for my home during one of those times in recent history.

But Vancouver is not a seller’s market right now. We determine what type of market we are operating in by dividing the number of homes available for sale by the number of properties that were sold last month. That calculation gives us the number of months’ supply.

A Seller’s Market = 0- to 5-month supply

A Balanced Market = 5- to 7-month supply

A Buyer’s Market = more than a 7-month supply

Vancouver is presently a balanced market, though we are leaning a bit toward a buyer’s market in many housing segments including apartment strata units. In the city of Vancouver, there are almost 20% more listings on the market than there were this time last year. If you’re shopping for a home in much of the city right now, you will find that you have choices, a lot less pressure, and a bit of time to make a good decision. Average prices for strata units are presently very close to what they sold for two years ago – they have come down a bit since the spring. This is obviously great news for buyers.

But there’s even more good news for buyers, this time in the area of interest rates which, somewhat surprisingly, remain at an all-time low.

First-time buyers will often borrow as much as they can afford and are most comfortable with a fixed-rate mortgage so they know that their payments will not increase over the length of the term. Today’s qualified buyers can lock in for as little as 3.39% on a five-year, fixed-term mortgage. Historically, this is about as good as it gets.

So, there is choice in the market, prices have come down from their highs of earlier this year, and interest rates are at all-time lows. Assuming that you’re in a position to buy, the only reason to wait would be if you believed that prices were going to come down even more. But trying to time the market precisely is simply not possible and prices could well increase while you’re waiting.

Real estate prices in Vancouver go up over time. Historically, if you bought a home that you lived in for several years; you made money when you sold. There is no reason to believe that will not be the case for you now. This would hold true even in a seller’s market with average interest rates. The fact that market conditions and interest rates are in your favour is a significant bonus, and those conditions won’t last forever.

I came across this quote yesterday that illustrates the point:

“Don’t wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait.”

As you can see, Mary had strong views which she wanted to share. So why run and hide when her message starts getting attention?

In the blogosphere she has achieved her goal of publicity... and gained a little notoriety in the process.

But rather than revel in the spotlight and push her message, she has run away from the attention.

Barnum would be so disappointed.

==================

Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
Click 'comments' below to contribute to this post.

Please read disclaimer at bottom of blog.

Wilfully blind, voluntarily ignorant?

Two days ago we told you about an article in BC Business Magazine that heralded "The Real Estate Mania is Over."

The article observed.:

History shows that Vancouver has always been a real estate boom-and-bust city. Now that the most recent mania appears to be over, with sales falling and prices threatening to follow, there's no reason to think that's going to change.

They told us...

Fear and worry are rampant in Vancouver these days: the mighty real estate market is struggling. Whether it is in a tailspin or due for a monstrous crash is the subject of endless dinner conversations, office cooler chats and online messages.

But ultimately BC Business Magazine dismisses the inevitable crash saying:

Was this a massive bubble? Slightly. When prices rise that much, we’re nudging bubble territory. But bubbles imply resulting crashes, and I don’t believe we’re going to have one. Of course, prices will drop a bit, but an American-style catastrophe isn’t going to happen.

All the evidence and the author concludes 'I don't believe we're going to have a crash'?

There's a moral here.

The doubters will only believe it's a bubble if we have a crushing crash.

Until the crash occurs, no manner of charts, theories, or tales of congruent circumstances (leading to this very outcome in other countries) will convince them until prices actually collapse. To them... real estate always goes up.  It may have 'little pull backs', but it always goes up.

Always.

Nothing personifies this wilful blindness like realtor Mary Cleaver. Introduced to us yesterday via Garth Turner's blog, Mary is one of those who have swallowed the Kool-aid in pitcher sized gulps.

For your enjoyment pleasure, two videos from Ms. Cleaver.

The first is from January 2012 and Mary explains why buying real estate is far better than the stock market:

Next, our pixacious airhead attempts to counter the 'housing crash' stories on CBC's National back in May by insisting Vancouver isn't in an overheated market. From the youtube video description:

Contrary to general statements made regarding the real estate market in Canada, the Vancouver housing market is far from over-heated. April stats tell a story of lots of inventory and fewer sales than in both March of this year and April of 2011. With the exception of parts of East Vancouver, much of the city is in a balanced market and trending toward a buyer's market. Buyers find themselves with plenty to choose from, time to make a good selection, prices in many areas stable or even lower than in the last year or two, and historically low interest rates. For Greater Vancouver statistics for April, go to www.dexterrealty.com. For more information and to contact Mary, go to www.marycleaver.com

And now the video...

As I said, until the crash occurs no manner of charts, theories, or tales of congruent circumstances will convince people like Mary of what is coming until they see, with their own eyes, prices actually collapse.

And when they do, you can bet all Mary will be able to muster is: Who could have known?

Maybe we need to do our own youtube or car cam video to explain it to her?

==================

Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
Click 'comments' below to contribute to this post.

Please read disclaimer at bottom of blog.