Recently we played a speculative game about when will we hit the 20,000 total listings mark for Vancouver Inventory (a summary of the predictions will be posted tomorrow).
But what about monthly inventory?
On the right we keep track of the total inventory numbers published by Paul B each and every day as well as keeping month end totals.
On January 3, 2012 we started with 10,671.
On the close of the first day of the next month, Feb. 1, 2012, we had a total of 13,368 (an increase of +2,727 from Jan. 3rd)
On March 1, 2012: 14,912 (+1,544)
On April 2, 2012: 16,o74 (+1,762)
On May 1, 2012: 17,122 (+1,048)
And the totals for May currently stand at 18,800, an increase of + 1,678 so far this month.
In fact May is on track to contain the 2nd highest increase in Inventory this year.
So what about June?
Anyone care to take a guess at what will be the total increase/decrease in listings at the close of the day on July 3rd, 2012?
(July 2nd - the first monday of the month - is a holiday in lieu of the Sunday stat so not totals for that day).
Will June eclipse May or will the pace soften?
If you don't have a Blogger ID, please attach a moniker so we can identify the prediction. All submissions entered in the comments section (or via email) before June 1st will be considered.
So what say you?
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As of July 3 total listings will be 20,050. A constant increase but at a slower pace.
ReplyDeleteThis months increase looks like it will come in around +1,700 - 1,900. What will the increase be over the month of June, pipewrench
Delete1200 +/- 100
DeleteThis has to slow soon. People will pull out the hope card and let listings expire rather than re-list at a lower amount.
Problem for sellers is that the bubble has popped and buyers are using a calculator instead of their imagination to dictate decisions.
With travel restrictions on the Chinese, and the crash full on there, I would expect this to start accelerating .... esp as the ones in the know should be putting up their places on the market. Im going to go toppy, and say:
ReplyDelete... 2242
...V
That's a hard one. I am interest to see what happens if we break through the 20 000 total inventory mark. Will that make the headlines? Will that be the moment people realize that this year is different and that the increase in listings is more than the usual spring surge? I find that most people don't know what is going on until they are fed it through the mass media and then do they really know what is going on anyway? So I wait to see what the masses will be told if we break through that milestone.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that we will see an increase of 1778 if things carry on business as usual and no mention of the total inventory. If Vancouver's total available inventory becomes "news" then I think we will see an increase of 3189 for the month of June
Just a guess!
Randolf
+2778 (need that to hit my June 1 20,000 prediction)
ReplyDelete+1855 (Ash)
ReplyDeletelittle old bank run
ReplyDeleteIn Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, foreign deposits have fallen by an average of 52 percent, and foreign government bond holdings by an average of 33 percent, from their peaks. The same move in Spain and Italy, taking into account the fall that has taken place already, would imply a further $272.17 billion and $270.9 billion in capital flight respectively,
Not good at all folks.
I am guessing 1900-2100! That should give some nice downward pressure.
ReplyDelete