It's been 8 months since the HPI peak... how does Vancouver compare?

The image above is from an interesting chart posted by Observer over on Vancouver Price Drop.

As faithful readers know it has been eight months since we hit what now appears to have been the peak of our housing bubble (using the industry's franken-number, the HPI).

So it begs the question... how does Vancouver compare to US cities  when they were 8 months into their housing collapse?

That chart you see above plots the progress of Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington, Miami, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Boston, Minneapolis, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and... Vancouver.

Vancouver is represented by the green line with the green circle:

The other cities identified as such:

Each starts at what is now accepted as their peak. Observer has combined the data from Vancouver West, Vancouver East, North Vancouver, West Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby and New Westminster to provide a representation of the metro Vancouver area.

 The data is taken from the MLS HPI

To give you a sense of what is happening in our housing bubble, after 8 months Vancouver has plunged faster than all those other cities did at the 8 month point of their drop (with the exception of  Miami).

That's a chilling statistic.

Here is the full graph with the other cities plotted over 48 months as their collapses played out fully.

Where will our's be in a year and a half?

When you consider that realtor's like James Wong believe the market looks ripe for a very meaningful correction in the months ahead, it gives you pause to consider the broader picture with grave apprehension.

(click on image to enlarge):

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