Tues Post #1: Media Manipulation? You decide.

Took a break for the long weekend, but let's pick up where we left off.

On Thursday we talked about all the hype in the real estate world with the upcoming Chinese New Year.

We told you about an article in the Vancouver Sun:  Realtors prep for Lunar New Year upswing in sales - In previous years, industry gets a bump during holiday time in China.

 “It’s hard to say what’s going to happen this year, but I expect we will see a bump in sales activity during the month of February,” said Cameron McNeil, president of project-marketing firm MAC Marketing Solutions.

Take note of that company, MAC Marketing Solutions. We'll be coming back to that shortly.

For now, back to the Sun article

McNeil said Asian buyers have been more active in the Metro Vancouver market in recent weeks than they were through the middle of 2012.

Asian buyer have been more active in the Metro Vancouver market in recent weeks?

We laughed at that on Thursday.  Smacks of media created hype to us, another lame attempt to generate phantom demand as a lever to encourage buyers to "buy now before the Asian surge prices you out of the market".

McNeil said his salespeople are seeing an increase in activity, including from Chinese buyers.

“To me, (Chinese buyers) are a leading indicator,” McNeil said. “What I mean is, when Chinese buyers are active, it is a little bit of a bellwether (for the overall market), and the Chinese are active.”

Buyers are taking their time, McNeil said, but for developments in good locations with “fair values, prices aren’t coming off and are selling very well.”

He added that locations with established neighbourhoods, good schools and proximity to rapid transit are popular

As frequent poster, Bo Xilai, noted:

Yeah, I can see wealthy Mainland Chinese buyers consider proximity to rapid transit as being SUPER important to their buying decision.

Why take the Bentley when you can ride the Canada Line?

Maybe Mr. MacNeil is trying to get his real audience – brokeass first time home buyers – off the fence.

That is exactly what we think the entire 'media campaign is all about, manipulating local first time home  buyers off their collective butts to get into the market.

All weekend long, articles appeared promoting this thread.

Perhaps the best was this one over on CTV. The title of the news piece: "Year of the Snake nets condo sales: developers"


CTV takes us to the Maddox condo development in downtown Vancouver. Maddox is being marketed by MAC Marketing Solutions... yes, the same MAC Marketing Solutions from the Vancouver Sun article on Thursday.

In the Maddox display suite, CTV introduces us to two potential Asian buyers.

Chris Lee, who moved to Vancouver from China two years ago, said she and her sister are looking to buy a hip downtown condo, and now that their parents are in town for two weeks celebrating Chinese New Year, they have financial help. 

“If we like this place we have to tell them and they make the decision,” Lee said. “Usually Chinese people like to buy during this time.” 

Condo developers embraced the influx of offshore buyers, with some companies bringing in additional Chinese-speaking staff to help sell units.

Chris does all the talking, but the two sisters are identified in the story. They Amanda Lee and Chris Lee.

So let's summarize here for a moment.  

The market is in a deep slump, but we get a big media blitz for Chinese New Year telling everyone the market is suddenly "alive in recent weeks with Asian buyers." Asian buyers who are looking for the same sort things in real estate that local buyers are looking for.

At the heart of the media blitz is MAC Marketing Systems. They conveniently back up their media campaign with two classic children of wealthy Asian parents, parents who are coming to town to buy them a condo for CNY.

See?  The market is alive and well... the overseas Asians are buying again, are you going to be left out?

Hmmm.

Not so fast though. These 'overseas wealthy Asians' might not be as 'overseas' as we have been lead to believe.

I know when I first saw this clip, the spidey senses were a-tingling. Didn't we see something like this last year when one of Cam Good's salespersons posed as a groupon condo buyer for Global TV? 

Other skeptics were having their doubts too. Over on VCI, Saint Patrick dug up an interesting profile on linkedin (click on image to enlarge):

Yep... you read that right.  

Coincidence of coincidences, MAC Marketing Solutions has an Administrative Assistant named Amanda Lee who not only works for MAC Marketing Solutions - but her current background says she's attached to the Maddox Downtown condo development. 

You don't say?  No ethic issues here, move along... I'm sure it's just a coincidence.

The weekend was topped off by an interesting email in my in-basket which I have only gotten around to reading early this morning.  It is from Matthew Black, a reporter from CBC-TV:

Hello, 

My name is Matthew Black and I'm a reporter with CBC Vancouver TV. 

I 'm looking to a 'myth busting' style piece on the supposed spike in real estate sales during Chinese New Year. I was quite interested by your blog posts on this subject. 

Would you be available to chat sometime today? I can be reached at 604.XXX.XXX or on my cell at 778.XXX.XXX 

-Matthew Black CBC News Vancouver

Appreciate the email, Matthew.  But the reality is that an anonymous blogger may not be the best interview for a TV reporter (kinda defeats the whole 'anonymous' thing).

But if you're up for it, I'd be willing to bet Amanda Lee would make a great focus for a 'myth busting style news piece.'

If the CTV Amanda and the MAC Marketing Solutions Amanda are both one and the same, why is the media standing by while the public is blatantly manipulated by the real estate industry in this fashion?

See if you can get her parents too. I understand they're in town this week.

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca Click 'comments' below to contribute to this post.

Please read disclaimer at bottom of blog.

Chinese New Year is upon us... will real estate sales surge? - Updated

This coming Sunday is Chinese New Year.

And Chinese New Year (CNY) has been an annual harbinger of a sales surge in our little Village on the Edge of the Rainforest... at least up until last year.

In 2012 CNY was a dismal flop. Declining market conditions back home combined with the negative images from the Japan Tsunami cast a pall across the CNY euphoria.

But with some semblance of a recovery in the economy, and press reports of fleeing capital in the midsts of a Chinese corruption crackdown, many have been eagerly anticipating another CNY surge.

And that's the thrust of an article in todays Vancouver Sun,  Realtors prep for Lunar New Year upswing in sales - In previous years, industry gets a bump during holiday time in China.

Sales in Metro Vancouver’s real estate markets have slowed, but realtors are still gearing up for the Lunar New Year period when, in recent years, the region has seen a bump in transactions associated with an influx of visitors for the holiday.

“It’s hard to say what’s going to happen this year, but I expect we will see a bump in sales activity during the month of February,” said Cameron McNeil, president of project-marketing firm MAC Marketing Solutions.

However, McNeil said Asian buyers have been more active in the Metro Vancouver market in recent weeks than they were through the middle of 2012.

By the end of 2012, property resales had declined 23 per cent to 25,032 transactions within the region of Metro Vancouver covered by the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, and realtors were describing the market as a standoff between buyers and sellers.

Asian buyer have been more active in the Metro Vancouver market in recent weeks?

Oh?

Now it must be said that the daily sales stats are not an accurate reflection of what went on that particular day.  They can be delayed weeks at a time.  But those numbers have been abysmal.  So the first reaction is to scoff at the statement.

It wreaks of another lame attempt to generate phantom demand as a lever to encourage buyers to "buy now before the surge prices you out".

McNeil said his salespeople are seeing an increase in activity, including from Chinese buyers.

“To me, (Chinese buyers) are a leading indicator,” McNeil said. “What I mean is, when Chinese buyers are active, it is a little bit of a bellwether (for the overall market), and the Chinese are active.”

Buyers are taking their time, McNeil said, but for developments in good locations with “fair values, prices aren’t coming off and are selling very well.”

He added that locations with established neighbourhoods, good schools and proximity to rapid transit are popular.

The message here is clear: Chinese buyers are a leading indicator and realtors are here to tell you "they're buying." The implication? Get ahead of the curve before prices start going up again.

As one comment at VCI noted (hat tip Bo Xilai):

Yeah, I can see wealthy Mainland Chinese buyers consider proximity to rapid transit as being SUPER important to their buying decision.

Why take the Bentley when you can ride the Canada Line?

Maybe Mr. MacNeil is trying to get his real audience – brokeass first time home buyers – off the fence.

And that is exactly what the entire "news piece" is all about.

Comically - after the big pump - the stage is set to soften the inevitable disappointment.

On the Chinese zodiac, 2013 is the year of the snake, but McNeil said that factors little in anyone’s buying plans.

Lunar New Year is one of the times of the year when the Chinese visitors who are drawn to Vancouver tend to come, which is something the real estate industry noticed and catered to with receptions and sales events. The result, McNeil said, has been “quite a few transactions out of that time period.”

Albert Leong, managing broker for the Macdonald Realty Westmar office in Richmond, added that China shuts down for Lunar New Year, which gives executives and business owners time to take a break from their companies and travel.

“At the same time, they come here with some money,” Leong said, and those inclined to spend some time in Vancouver might buy property.

However, Leong is also sensitive to China’s internal economics, which haven’t been as strong as in previous years as the economies of its customers in Europe slow down and the United States struggles to bounce back.

And his impression is that there are fewer Chinese coming to Metro Vancouver.

“I think they are in recession just because their customers, the U.S. and Europe, are doing less business (with China),” Leong said. “I think for the government, the incentive is there to keep everyone home and keep their own economy (growing).”

The CNY period is upon us and sales data over the next few weeks is going to paint a very telling story.

Four sales days after the first of the month and we already have a net inventory increase of almost 600 new listings (an average increase of 149 per day).  If net daily listings were to increase at this rate, February would close with an astounding increase in inventory of (+2,832), a total which would eclipse any increase seen in 2012.

Those planeloads of vacationing Chinese nationals better start buying quick. 

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
Click 'comments' below to contribute to this post.

Please read disclaimer at bottom of blog.