BIV: A Closer Look at Olympic Village Property Values

Business in Vancouver Magazine is out today with a shocking series of slides taking a closer loop at Olympic Village property values.

In the first one, the average change from assessed values in 2011 to 2014 is down almost a stunning 20%:

Breaking down the properties, the average price drop per unit is a whopping $221,546.  The largest price drop is $627,000 for one unit:

Based on floors, from units on the 10th floor and up, prices are down -33%. Mid floors (5th - 9th floor) are down 22% and Lower floors (4th and below) are also down 22%.

BIV also gives a breakdown of the smaller to bigger units:

It's a stunning look at property values in the former Olympic Village.

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HouseGate: The logical mind asks - Is freedom of the press under attack from the Vancouver Mayor's Office?

Last Friday Frances Bula said:

Okay, this is Friday fluff, but whatever. I feel I must contribute to the ongoing deep investigations into Mayor Gregor Robertson’s change of abode... No one seems to see Robertson’s move, from a single-family house near Emily Carr elementary in central Vancouver to a smaller place in Kits near the beach, as symbolic of the prototypical Vancouver downsizing. Instead, it seems to have turned into massive theory-building about how it has something to do with the Point Grey bike lane. Or his federal-election ambitions. Or something.

This seemingly vacuous controversy spawned from our original post which simply made note of the fact that the Mayor's home was on the market.

It's important to note that in that post we only mused on whether our not his worship was cashing out of our City's massive housing bubble.

So how did this morph into a political controversy?

It was the Mayor's office who transformed this story into something to do with the Point Grey bike lane.  They responded the next morning with this press statement that directly tied the issue of the Mayor moving to the Point Grey bike lane:

  

Our post was made on Tuesday night.  The next morning, with lightening speed, the Mayor's office issues a press release confirming that the house was for sale and that the Mayor had already purchased a new house.

The Mayor's office then specifically linked the new purchase to the Point Grey/Cornwall bike corridor. So serious was this tie-in that the press statement came complete with a legal opinion from the City Solicitor and an admission that this announcement had been weeks in the making.

Then came the next domino.  The press release stated:

They recently purchased a new home in Kitsilano within a block of York Street. For security reasons we don’t disclose the specific location.

Security reasons? Naturally a media frenzy erupted trying to root out these reasons. Within hours Business in Vancouver newspaper was out with breaking news via this tweet:

BIV released a story which profiled the exact location of the Mayor's new house.

It was news because the location revealed that the Bike lane controversy was even greater than originally reported.  He wasn't moving "somewhere in Kits a block away from York Street." The Mayor was moving right next to the most contentious area of the Point Grey/Cornwall route - Point Grey Road - and it appears this info was known in advance of the public opeen house.

This was huge news.

News which the Mayor's office not only created, but compounded by waiting to reveal it.

Why had they waited to acknowledge what they themselves had deemed would be a potential conflict of interest weeks earlier?

Was this news held back so it wouldn't come out during the public information open houses meetings on the Point Grey/Cornwall Bike route proposal?

Was the news only acknowledged in response to our blog post because the Mayor's office hoped they would never have to actually acknowledge the moveuntil long after the fact?

The exact location of the Mayor's new residence has been transformed into an important component of the conflict-of-interest debate specifically because the Mayor's office was not forthcoming with the  news until they were forced to reveal it.

As such, the newsworthiness of the precise location of his new residence was deemed important enough by the media to outweigh any individual privacy concerns.

Thus BIV ran their story.

But then a curious thing happened to that BIV piece (hilighing a phenomenona that could never happen in the era of print of journalism).  

Did anyone notice?

On July 11th the online version of BIV's story was suddenly and quietly redacted.  All reference to the specific location of the Mayor's new residence eliminated.  Even reference to the general location was removed. 

Why redact the general location at the nexus of York/Stephens/Point Grey Road?  That's the heart of the whole story!

Was BIV pressured into censoring these details? Or did they remove that info of their own accord?

Curiously, despite the apparent censorship by BIV, the author of the article - Bob Mackin - published all pertinent details on his own blog: (see this screen shot taken on July 11th - we've blacked out the specific address)

This seems to indicate the censorship did not occur internally at BIV, at least due to any legal concerns.

If there had been legal concerns, presumably Mackin would have been advised of them and he wouldn't have posted those details on his own blog just as his own paper was censoring them.  

But then there's another twist, Mackin's article was updated July 15th and the specific details of the Mayor's residence removed:

So what gives? Several serious questions are raised here.  

The reasonable man/woman logically wonders what triggered BIV into censoring their original story.  It's also logical to wonder if the Mayor's office played any role.  

Before the move to Kits was even even announced by the Mayor's office (MO), the MO were citing 'security concerns.'  What security concerns?  There couldn't have been any documented issues prior to the press release because the news hadn't even been announced yet.

Was our Mayor was already receiving threats at his old residence at 912 West 23rd Avenue?

As we noted in our original post, the Mayor's home address is a matter of public record, available in online documents available from city hall. If there have been prior threats, why haven't we been told?  There is no place in our society for threats against our elected officials.  Whatever your position regarding our civic political debates, the idea that our Mayor may be at risk is totally unacceptable and cannot be tolerated. If there have been prior documented threats, was Chief of Police Chu notified? And what has he done to address them?

But there doesn't appear to be any record of prior threats, just concerns about what 'might be'.

And why wasn't just the specific address removed?  Why were all references to the general area of York/Stephens/Point Grey Road also pulled?

Various sources have suggested it might be extremely enlightening for the media to ask two specific questions:

• Why did BIV pull their story, and 
• Did the Mayor's office pressure a Vancouver news outlet to censor their reporting?

Anyone care to enquire with these two entities directly for the answers?

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Housegate: When did the Mayor buy and when did he know he would buy there?

To say that our breaking blog post about Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson listing his house for sale is a story with "legs" is a bit of an understatement.

Our story lead to media questions for the Mayor, prompting a press release (see also here).Turns out his worship has not only listed his home for sale, but he's already bought new digs, which is where our story really heats up.

Our post originally queried whether our fair Mayor was bailing on the bublicious Vancouver real estate scene... grabbing the equity that has grown since the Mayor paid $450,000 for his Cambie area home back in 2005 (it's on the market now for $1.9 mil).

But in the press release, Gregor not only addressed the reasons for selling (downsizing due to empty nest syndrome), but he also came out with a statement from the City Solicitor.

The City Solicitor?

"The mayor’s family is selling their home and downsizing now that their kids have graduated high school. They’ve bought a new home within a block of York Avenue in Kitsilano, but the location isn’t being disclosed for security reasons.

The City Solicitor [Francie Connell] has informed the Mayor that there is no legal conflict with voting on matters related to the Point Grey–Cornwall bike and pedestrian safety upgrades at this time. However, out of an abundance of caution, the Mayor informed the City Solicitor that he will be recusing himself from voting on the upcoming Point Grey–Cornwall project. The City Solicitor will review the final staff report on the project and provide any further advice to the Mayor on this matter as required."

Huh?

Speculation is that the Mayor has bought (exact address removed) on Stephens Street in Kitislano.   XXXX Stephens Street happens to sit at the western-most end of York Avenue.

Suddenly you understand the need for input from the City Solicitor because when the Mayor 'downsized' to a house just off Point Grey Road near York Ave, he opened up a huge can of worms.

This part of York Avenue just so happens to be the terminus of the latest, and highly contentious, bike lane proposal being pushed through by the City.

The new traffic-calmed bike route being proposed for York Ave is part of a Burrard Bridge to Jericho Beach 'corridor'.

The section between Stephens St and Chestnut St is a hodgepodge of no changes, one-way “counterflow” bike lanes, one-way roads, two-way roads, and two-way bike tracks. It's a critical stretch that will dramatically impact the neighbourhood... and it's garnered a lot of negative neighbourhood attention.

On May 23rd, CBC news talked about the City's public consultation for the contentious plan.

The City of Vancouver is considering a separated bike path along Cornwall Avenue and Point Grey Road in the city's Point Grey neighbourhood.

The first of three open houses to discuss the plan takes place tonight. Another open house takes place Saturday at 10 a.m. PT at Bayview Elementary School, followed by a final presentation Monday at 4 p.m. PT at the Kitsilano Public Library.

What no one told the public was that the dedicated bike path would lead to the front door of the Mayor's new house. A house which - at the time of the meetings - Robertson may have already bought (or was under negotiation to buy).

To borrow from a famous political phrase: when did the Mayor buy and when did he know he was going to buy it?

It's an important question because this story now has all the appearances of a massive conflict of interest.

• Did Robertson scope out this new house before or after the plans for the bike route were underway? 
• How much did the Mayor's house hunting factor into the designing of this contentious new bike route?
• How much influence has the Mayor exerted to get this route set up to terminate at his doorstep?

At first blush you can't blame people for wondering if Robertson influenced the process to ram the the proposal through channels. The very fact he hid his real estate purchase from the public during the Open Houses process certainly creates the aura of impropriety.

How significant do you think this fact is to those who attended the public meetings to voice their displeasure with the proposal?

The public has a right to know what role all this played in the political process at City Hall. When did the Mayor buy and when did he know he would buy there?

Sounds like it's time for another press release, Gregor.

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Vancouver Mayor responds to yesterday's post - Updated: media speculating on Mayor's new home.

See end of post for update on media speculation about Mayor's new digs.

Seems our post yesterday about Gregor Robertson, the Mayor of Vancouver, putting his home up for sale created a bit of a stir. Several newspapers have picked up on the story this afternoon including the Province and MetroNews. From the Georgia Straight newspaper:

Mayor Gregor Robertson's office has issued a statement after a local blogger revealed that his home was for sale.

In a post entitled “Guess who’s trying to cash out of the real estate market in Vancouver?”, the Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest website provided the listing information for the mayor’s six-bedroom and four-bathroom residence at 912 West 23rd Avenue.

It’s being advertised for $1.95 million.

“So it begs the question, if even the Mayor of Vancouver is bailing on the Vancouver real estate market, has the slide begun in earnest?” the blog cheekily declared.

Responding to media inquiries, the mayor’s office released a statement saying the family has moved farther west, to Kitsilano.

“The mayor’s family is selling their home and downsizing now that their kids have graduated high school,” reads the statement. They’ve bought a new home within a block of York Avenue in Kitsilano, but the location isn’t being disclosed for “security reasons.”

Apparently the revelation of the sale has triggered a whole series of political questions. According to the press statement:

“In recent weeks the Mayor apprised senior staff, including the City Solicitor, of this property transaction and they were requested to provide advice and a legal opinion on any possible conflict that the Mayor might be in with regard to future decisions of Council related to the Point Grey/Cornwall bike corridor. The City Solicitor has informed the Mayor that there is no legal conflict with voting on matters related to the Point Grey Cornwall bike and pedestrian safety upgrades at this time.”

The Georgia Straight wonders if the move is part of a broader set of political intrigue:

What's intriguing about the move is that Robertson now lives much farther away from his workplace at Vancouver City Hall.

Normally, cyclists like to live closer to the office.

Perhaps this suggests there could be federal political implications for Robertson, who is sometimes viewed as a future candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada.

His old residence is in the proposed new riding of Vancouver-Granville, which is being carved out of parts of other ridings in the city. There is no MP for this riding yet.

His new home is likely in Vancouver Quadra, which is represented by Liberal MP Joyce Murray. That's because most of York Avenue is west of Arbutus Street, which is the boundary for the riding. East of Arbutus is within Hedy Fry's riding of Vancouver Centre.

Murray ran against Justin Trudeau in this year’s federal Liberal leadership race.

Whoever becomes the Liberal candidate in Vancouver Quadra is likely a shoo-in to get elected to Parliament.

Could Robertson be planning a challenge against Murray for the Liberal nomination after he wins a third term as mayor in 2014? Stay tuned.

Oh my.  Did we start something?

So what do you think.  Is it simple downsizing? Capitalizing on bubble profits? Or a move borne of broader political considerations?

Update

The media seems to be all abuzz with the Mayor's new home.  And with the Mayor's press release declining to release the location of his new home for 'security reasons', the frenzy has only intensified.

Let's face it... the Mayor's address is public knowledge on nomination forms, why the secrecy now? Is it because of the bike lane proposal along York in Kitsilano... just steps away from the Mayor's new digs?

This just in on twitter:

BIV is reporting that the new digs are (XXXX - address removed) on Stephens Street:

From the realtor description:

Show-stopping ocean and mountain views abound from this outstanding, beautifully designed and renovated ½ duplex tucked away on a quiet street in Kitsilano within ½ block of the beach. The home of an award winning interior designer that has graced the pages of many prestigious design publications, this property has just hit the news stands in the special interest Canadian House and Home 2008 ‘Makeover Issue". The unique multi-level flooplan offers 2 bedrooms, 2½ baths, den, office and 3 large ocean view decks. Every detail was masterfully considered in the extensive renovation. Gorgeous quality finishes include kitchen with professional grade stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, new bathrooms with limestone, porcelain and mosaic tiles, steam shower and heated floors, built-in speaker system, 42” TV with B/I surround sound, built-in storage, and gorgeous designer lighting and fixtures. Fabulous outdoor living spaces include 3 gorgeous view decks (one with gas BBQ hook-up and over-head mounted gas heater) and the privately set Italian style garden with a covered spa hot tub area. This home has ample heated storage with B/I wine storage and a single car attached garage. A stunning home and an absolute must see!

(google streets image of house removed)

We're sure the neighbours are thrilled. You can read BIV's story here.

Follow up post: July 11, 2013 - Housegate: When did the Mayor buy and when did he know he would buy there?

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The industry spins, but did pigs just fly? Somerville concedes prices could drop significantly!

February real estate sales statistics are out and the news is now hitting the media.

"Greater Vancouver home sales, prices plummet," says the 24 Hours newspaper.

This one catches the eye because it is devoid of any of the P/R spin from the regular players. In fact the opening sentence is almost like a cheap-shot directed towards industry rationalization of the last few months:

While Vancouver’s housing market has remained relatively strong since the 2008 financial crisis compared to most of North America, home sales took a dramatic dip last month compared to the same time last year. 

You can almost feel the word 'zing' brush past your face.

The basic numbers for February:

Residential property sales plummeted 29.4% in February versus the year before, reaching their second lowest total in more than a decade, according to figures released Monday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The 1,797 homes sold represented a 30.9% decrease for the month’s 10-year sales average.

Home prices dropped noticeably last month compared to a year before.

Apartment prices in Greater Vancouver decreased 3% to a benchmark $360,400, while detached properties fell 4.5% to $901,500. Attached properties were least affected by this latest downward trend, dropping 0.7% to a benchmark price of $455,500.

Industry spin isn't completely absent, however. As noted in Business in Vancouver, "Vancouver home sales drop 29% but turnaround in sight: REBGV"

The 'turnaround' that the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) is hanging their hopes on is their belief that a few indicators hint the trend toward recent weakness is subsiding.

The hints lie in what the REBGV believes are positive signs from a much higher sales-to-listings ratio and slightly higher prices.

So amidst the highest listings totals for this time of year ever and an average price that was skewed higher because of low sales impacted with three large sales , this is a sign of a turnaround?

LOL... I think they call this 'hopium'?

Meanwhile the spin from other quarters is that 'traction' is emerging as the masses grow tired of waiting for the bubble to pop. 

As noted in the Globe and Mail: "Home sales slip further, but signs of traction emerge."

This time it's CIBC's Benny Tal:

Canada’s housing market may still be cooling, but there are fears in some quarters that “bubble fatigue” will pump it back up heading into the spring season.

What economist Benjamin Tal means when he uses that phrase is that home buyers are skeptical about whether the residential real estate market is heading for a sharp price and sales drop. At the same time, mortgage rates are declining, not rising.

Just this weekend, Bank of Montreal cut the price on its five-year, fixed-rate mortgage to 2.99 per cent from 3.09 per cent. That’s the lowest advertised rate among Canada’s big banks, and lower rates are available in the market.

“I think the spring will surprise on the upside,” the CIBC World Markets economist said on Monday.

Indeed, “bubble fatigue” may well prove wrong the forecast for dismal sales this spring, he added.

“People have been talking about a collapse for two years, so many are becoming a bit skeptical about that,” he said. “As well, rates are in fact going down, not up.”

What for 'bubble fatigue' to catch on as the latest way to rationalize a turnaround is coming.

But perhaps the most telling comment comes from our old friend Tsur Somerville.

Faithful readers know Somerville as the one you keeps telling us "prices are flat" and that holding our breath for prices to fall is pointless because it ain't going to happen.

But in this News1130 report,  Somerville appears to utter heresy:

A new report says homes in Metro Vancouver are overpriced by about 26 per cent...

“One thing that I find striking, though is that [with] current interest rates prices, make some sense, when compared to rents,” says Tsur Sommerville (sic) with UBC’s Sauder School of Business...

Relief might be on the way; the Fitch report says Vancouver’s overvalued real estate could correct by up to 15 per cent “over the next several years.”

“A lot depends on where interest rates go over the next few years,” explains Sommerville. “[If] interest rates three, four, five years from now are substantially higher than what they are now then housing prices will correct.”

Sommerville adds local home values could drop even more than the 15 per cent predicted by Fitch.

“If there was to be a correction, you might expect to see a bigger correction in house prices than in condos,” he explains.

So today becomes a historic day as even Somerville publicly concedes home prices could actually drop.

If one of the Province's chief bubble deniers is beginning to hedge his rhetoric, you know things are looking bad.

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