The industry spins, but did pigs just fly? Somerville concedes prices could drop significantly!

February real estate sales statistics are out and the news is now hitting the media.

"Greater Vancouver home sales, prices plummet," says the 24 Hours newspaper.

This one catches the eye because it is devoid of any of the P/R spin from the regular players. In fact the opening sentence is almost like a cheap-shot directed towards industry rationalization of the last few months:

While Vancouver’s housing market has remained relatively strong since the 2008 financial crisis compared to most of North America, home sales took a dramatic dip last month compared to the same time last year. 

You can almost feel the word 'zing' brush past your face.

The basic numbers for February:

Residential property sales plummeted 29.4% in February versus the year before, reaching their second lowest total in more than a decade, according to figures released Monday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The 1,797 homes sold represented a 30.9% decrease for the month’s 10-year sales average.

Home prices dropped noticeably last month compared to a year before.

Apartment prices in Greater Vancouver decreased 3% to a benchmark $360,400, while detached properties fell 4.5% to $901,500. Attached properties were least affected by this latest downward trend, dropping 0.7% to a benchmark price of $455,500.

Industry spin isn't completely absent, however. As noted in Business in Vancouver, "Vancouver home sales drop 29% but turnaround in sight: REBGV"

The 'turnaround' that the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) is hanging their hopes on is their belief that a few indicators hint the trend toward recent weakness is subsiding.

The hints lie in what the REBGV believes are positive signs from a much higher sales-to-listings ratio and slightly higher prices.

So amidst the highest listings totals for this time of year ever and an average price that was skewed higher because of low sales impacted with three large sales , this is a sign of a turnaround?

LOL... I think they call this 'hopium'?

Meanwhile the spin from other quarters is that 'traction' is emerging as the masses grow tired of waiting for the bubble to pop. 

As noted in the Globe and Mail: "Home sales slip further, but signs of traction emerge."

This time it's CIBC's Benny Tal:

Canada’s housing market may still be cooling, but there are fears in some quarters that “bubble fatigue” will pump it back up heading into the spring season.

What economist Benjamin Tal means when he uses that phrase is that home buyers are skeptical about whether the residential real estate market is heading for a sharp price and sales drop. At the same time, mortgage rates are declining, not rising.

Just this weekend, Bank of Montreal cut the price on its five-year, fixed-rate mortgage to 2.99 per cent from 3.09 per cent. That’s the lowest advertised rate among Canada’s big banks, and lower rates are available in the market.

“I think the spring will surprise on the upside,” the CIBC World Markets economist said on Monday.

Indeed, “bubble fatigue” may well prove wrong the forecast for dismal sales this spring, he added.

“People have been talking about a collapse for two years, so many are becoming a bit skeptical about that,” he said. “As well, rates are in fact going down, not up.”

What for 'bubble fatigue' to catch on as the latest way to rationalize a turnaround is coming.

But perhaps the most telling comment comes from our old friend Tsur Somerville.

Faithful readers know Somerville as the one you keeps telling us "prices are flat" and that holding our breath for prices to fall is pointless because it ain't going to happen.

But in this News1130 report,  Somerville appears to utter heresy:

A new report says homes in Metro Vancouver are overpriced by about 26 per cent...

“One thing that I find striking, though is that [with] current interest rates prices, make some sense, when compared to rents,” says Tsur Sommerville (sic) with UBC’s Sauder School of Business...

Relief might be on the way; the Fitch report says Vancouver’s overvalued real estate could correct by up to 15 per cent “over the next several years.”

“A lot depends on where interest rates go over the next few years,” explains Sommerville. “[If] interest rates three, four, five years from now are substantially higher than what they are now then housing prices will correct.”

Sommerville adds local home values could drop even more than the 15 per cent predicted by Fitch.

“If there was to be a correction, you might expect to see a bigger correction in house prices than in condos,” he explains.

So today becomes a historic day as even Somerville publicly concedes home prices could actually drop.

If one of the Province's chief bubble deniers is beginning to hedge his rhetoric, you know things are looking bad.

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The push to prevent a listings tsunami

So the month of January has come and gone.

You will recall that back on January 2, 2013, we talked about the huge number of listings on the market as the New Year got underway.

Vancouver Inventory started off 2013 at 11,789.  In 2012 we started off with 10,671. So 2013 comes in just over 1,000 listings higher.

Of course these numbers represent Vancouver Inventory.  Realtor Larry Yatkowsky provided us with this graph of Greater Vancouver Inventory comparing the start of 2013 with 2012 and 2011:

Looking at the graph above 2012 started off higher than 2011 and 2013 was significantly higher than 2012.

Bottom line... listings are way, way up.

In January 2012, the market was flooded as total inventory soared 2,727 listings higher.

January 2013 didn't score that high, but the month did clock in a listings increase of 2,141... a total higher than any month other than January in 2012.

No matter how you slice it.... the market is swimming in available inventory.

In fact many believe the market has gotten off lightly.

I personally know of a seller in Richmond who pulled her home off the market in November - at the advice of her realtor - to re-list in the New Year.  His advice... hold off until late February, at least.

Privately realtors will tell you there are many more like her.  And it is what the industry fears.  A Tsunami of listings coming in the next two months to overwhelm the market.

Even with people holding off listing their homes for sale, total listings inventory surged this past month.     And the total surged for one reason - sales were abysmal. The number of homes sold in Greater Vancouver fell 14.3% last month.

As we near the that Spring listings surge from sellers who have been looking to wait out the market, the are attempts being made to convince some sellers to hold off from listing entirely this Spring, if they can afford to wait.

I believe this is the only way to explain the statement the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) put out yesterday, as noted in the Globe and Mail newspaper:

Eugene Klein, president of the Greater Vancouver board, said many home sellers are choosing to delist their homes rather than settle for a lower bid. “When a home seller isn’t receiving the kind of offers they want, there comes a point when they decide to either lower the price or remove the home from the market. Right now, it seems many home sellers are opting for the latter,” Mr. Klein said in a statement.

It makes great copy, but sorry Eugene... it doesn't wash with the inventory levels.

Even real estate agent Larry Yatkowsky points out the obvious. Besides coming up with the great image we used at the top of our post, Yatkowsky observes:

“Home buyer demand remains below historical averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market. January had a 14.3% decline YOY in sales. This was the second lowest number of sales since 2001 or put another way, sales were 18.7% below the 10 year average."

Yatkowsky then counter's Klein statement by noting:

"Although down 10.9% YOY, January’s new listing count was 18.9% higher than the region’s 10-year average. Total listings in the region increased 5.6% YOY."

Declining sales, listings surging higher... so why is Klein trying to create media buzz that home sellers are simply refusing to list if they don't get the price they want?

To me it seems obvious.

The full court press is on to try and dissuade the rush to market everyone is waiting to see.  Unlike last year, many believed 2013 would see higher listings in February than we saw in January.

And while the inventory total surged in January, it was solely because sales were so abysmal.  The daily listings counts were not that high in January.

February has started off with two consecutive 300+ listings days (if yesterday's increase of 161 listings carried though all month, we would see an inventory increase of 2,898 this month).

If sales continue to suck wind, February will most certainly top January's overall increase in listings.

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What lies ahead? One local real estate agent calls the bottom.

As the news about November's real estate sales circulates in the media, the main emphasis shifts from declining sales to actual prices.

The mantra being pushed is that prices aren't (and won't) be coming down.  We saw that message on November 30th:

"If you've been staying out of the housing market, waiting for a big drop, you might be in for a long wait."

And it's been a theme Tsur Somerville has pushed since early October.

Yesterday it was Eugene Klein, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV):

November home sales in the Vancouver area fell 28.6 per cent compared with a year ago as what was once the country's hottest real estate market continued to cool.

Despite the sharp drop in sales, the board said the MLS home price index composite benchmark for homes Greater Vancouver was $596,900, down just 1.7 per cent compared with a year ago. The index peaked in May at $625,100.

"Home sellers appear more inclined to remove their properties from the market today rather than lower prices to sell their properties," said Eugen Klein, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

At this stage of the process, it's no surprise that listings are being pulled to wait out conditions.  And it isn't really surprising that the real estate industry is focusing on the convoluted HPI to dampen the impact of any price drop.

For while the HPI is only down 1.7%, the average detached home price is now down 14% from the February 2012 peak.  Who wants that figure prominently publicized?

Conditions are mimicking what we saw in 2008 when the Financial Crisis started.  As Garth Turner noted, the parallels are eerily similar. 2008 saw a huge drop in sales and the average price started to plummet:

Of course the collapse was resuscitated. "In 2008 a variable-rate mortgage was 6% and a five-year loan was 5.75%. The world fell into a financial... and the Bank of Canada rushed in emergency interest rates. By May of 2009 a VRM had collapsed to just 2.25% – the lowest point in history. With rates almost 4% lower than they’d been months earlier, and mortgage payments slashed by more than half, the collapse in real estate prices and sales was quickly reversed"

The efforts were complimented by the federal government's bailout of the banks through the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (IMPP).

Not only was the collapse halted, but the bubble blew even higher as Canadians plunged themselves into historic levels of debt:

But as the crack cocaine of cheap easy money has run it's course and the government has started to pull back on those emergency measures, the slide is happening again (despite the HPI only dropping 1.7%):

So as the average price mimics 2008, what divine intervention will occur to see that prices only 'flatline'?

What is going to cause prices to resume their upward trajectory?

The changes to the mortgage rules have frozen out the entry level buyer, the ones who used to be balt o to get into the market with nothing down.

Without their business the market freezes, as Thomas Neal of Royal LePage Estate Realty noted in the Globe and Mail:

While people are still coveting single-family houses, those move-up buyers who already own a condo are more hesitant to purchase a house because they don’t know how long it will take to sell the condo. That’s a change from the dynamic of the last eight years or so when condo owners would often list the unit first, reap more than they expected in a bidding contest, and then in turn funnel that money into winning the competition for a house.

“Now they’re not buying first; they’re selling first,” says Mr. Neal. With that shift, he explains, the number of buyers out there is cut roughly in half.

Enter the current industry campaign: "buy now because prices won't be going down."

I have a feeling this theme is going to ramp up over the winter months before the Spring re-listing begins in earnest:

It’s a market that’s winding down in the dwindling days of November. Few new listings will arrive on the market in December. Those sellers who do list now have likely already purchased another property.

“If you don’t have to sell I think you’re going to wait until the spring,” says Mr. Neal.

As for those sellers whose condos and houses are already lingering on the market, Mr. Neal predicts many of those people will be taking down the “for sale” sign by Christmas.

“People who don’t sell in December will be back out on the market in February,” he says.

And when they come back in Spring, they want to hear that there will be people to buy their homes.

Perhaps that's why some bearish agents are starting to change their tune about market conditions.  Let's face it, who wants to list with an agent who tells you it's only going to get worse.

Perhaps this explains the about-face in attitude from real estate agent Andrew Hasman.

In 2011, when prices were going crazy on the west side, he was calling the market 'unhealthy' and warning about the consequences:

"The local person is completely out of this market," he said. While skyrocketing prices have made business good, Hasman said that the current market, with housing prices rising 10-15 per cent each year, is unhealthy.

"Anytime you have extremes in markets, it's never healthy," he said. "You end up with a bubble. If the local economic base can't support these levels, then at some point you're going to have a lot of people burned big time. It's not sustainable."

In July 2012 he told us that:

This feels like the first Normal Real Estate market in many years. That is if you can even define or remember what 'Normal' really feels like.  Gone are the bidding wars and gone (for now) are the days when homes were selling in mere days. For buyers there is now good selection and no pressure to make that big commitment... Sales of homes across the Greater area of Vancouver are at levels not seen since 2000!

Overall, prices still seem to be holding with some price softening in specific markets only. Vancouver’s Westside looks to be one of those markets.  Fewer buyers from China, tougher mortgage regulations and concerns over the global economy are all weighing on consumer confidence. I predict these market conditions will continue through the balance of 2012 with further price softening.

So does Hasman see more dismal times ahead for when all those disgrunted sellers re-list in the Spring?  Apparently not, according to his December 4th market report:

We continued to slow sluggish sales activity on the Westside during November. That being said there is some promising news. The number of homes on the market at the end of November has dropped substantially since peaking in mid-September. I have also noticed a lot more calls on our listed properties combining with more viewings too. Even though sales volumes continue to remain well below last year’s levels, the shrinking supply and stable sales volume over the past 6 months points to a stable market moving forward. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a robust Winter Market with brisk activity in January and February.

Really? And what are we going to hang our hopes on for this resurgence in the market?

For home owners thinking about selling in 2013, keep in mind if you list your home in March (based on the last 4 years of sales activity) you missed the best time for selling. Home owners that listed their homes just before Chinese New Year achieved the highest selling prices. The period of Late January to end of the February was the busiest time for housing sales the last 4 years. Why should this year be any different?

Ummm... because that period in 2012 also wasn't like the years before it?  Based on 2012, that period was a disaster. Are we really going to continue to hang out hats on Hot Asian Money (HAM) again this Spring? 

It appears so. Hasman not only pins his clients hopes on HAM, he goes further than that and calls a bottom for the market:

I do not see any housing crash or even much more downside to house prices. Prices have already slipped 10-15% in some cases and I feel that is as far as it will go.

So there you have it: Buy now, because prices aren't going to go down.

Pardon me if I read the tea leaves a little differently.

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Wed Post #1: Conflicting messages. Should the Federal Government back off on their mortgage changes?

After dismal sales in March, April, May, June, July, and August; September was supposed to begin a fall surge that would lift real estate out of it's malaise this year.

Instead the worst September sales numbers on record has the real estate industry reeling in panic. 

Unable to hide what's going on with their muddled statistics, the Federal Government is now getting the blame.

We all knew that was coming.

Never mind that sales were plummeting even before mortgage changes were enacted in July, the full court press is ramping up against the Federal Government to undo the mortgage regulations they recently imposed.

As if that was the cause of the problem.

The problem, as blog fans know all to0 well, is the housing bubble and the easy credit that fuelled this mess.

In 1999, the National Housing Act and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Act were modified allowing for the introduction of a 5% down payment. Just a few years earlier you needed to plunk down 25%.

In 2003 CMHC decided to remove price ceilings limitations and would now insure any mortgage regardless of the cost of the home.

In 2005 and 2006, CMHC went from insuring only 25 year amortized mortgages and to insuring 30, then 35 year amortizations.

In 2007, CMHC allowed people to purchase a home with no down payment and allowed them to amortize it over 40 years.

It was excess credit, credit which flooded the housing market... and prices soared.

And even though the 5% down payment was reintroduced in 2008 and maximum amortizations scaled back to 35 years in 2008, the Great Financial Crisis resulted in a tremendous slashing of interest rates. Emergency level interest rates negating the rule changes.

One only has to look at CMHC's allowable mortgage cap.  The Crown Corp has gone from $100 Billion in mortgages in 2006 to $600 Billion in 2012.

In that one statistic alone lies the housing bubble.

Earlier this year the CEOs of Canada's banks began putting pressure on Finance Minister Flaherty and Prime Minister Harper to curb debt levels by raising down payment requirements and/or shortening maximum mortgage amortization lengths.

With mortgages representing nearly 70% of total household credit - and with household credit reaching record highs - limiting the expansion of that form of debt is crucial.

As real estate goes through withdrawal pangs from the partial removal of it's addictive drug (imagine the screaming if we had gone back to 25% down?), the Industry is having the shakes.

Rather than blaming liquidity for blowing a bubble to begin with, the Industry is attacking government for denying it the crucial drug they so desperately desire.

With the September surge now rendered a false hope, blame begins.

The Globe and Mail picks up on the Industry's wrath:

The federal government eliminated the approval of 30-year amortization periods on government-backed mortgages in June – and the decision’s impact can now be seen most vividly in the cooling off of Greater Vancouver’s market, with sales falling for everything from entry-level homes to luxury houses... Real estate sales across Greater Vancouver are sinking. There were 1,516 residential properties that changed hands in September in the region, down nearly 33 per cent from the same month last year. In West Vancouver, where the posh British Properties are located, the number of detached homes sold fell to 43 last month from 71 a year earlier.

The Industry's thrust is that the mortgage changes are hurting everyone, not just the entry level buyer. It's hurting you.  Ergo... you should pressure the government to turn the taps back on.

But should the Canadian Federal Government back off on the changes to the mortgage rules they introduced in June?

Eugene Klein, President of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver certainly thinks so:

“There’s been a clear reduction in buyer demand in the three months since the federal government eliminated the availability of a 30-year amortization on government-insured mortgages. This makes homes less affordable for the people of the region.”

Hmm... sounds like a problem, doesn't it?

Bank of Montreal senior economist Sal Guatieri also suggested that there has been a domino effect in the Vancouver region.

As condo sellers - who can’t unload their places - aren’t able to then purchase larger residences, the result is a dampening effect in the overall market.

Even in the higher end of real estate, buyers who could borrow heavily in the past are no longer able to qualify for as much mortgage funding.

So these government policies are really hurting the Real Estate industry - and by extension - average Canadians, right?

Well... there's some conflicting opinions on this.  So let's ask some industry experts.

First up, Cameron Muir - Chief Economist of the BC Real Estate Association.

Mr. Muir... Eugene Klein is concerned buyers are staying away from buying real estate and that government policies are to blame. Your thoughts?

"I am predicting increased sales in 2013 because of continuing low interest rates, population growth and more full-time jobs."

- Cameron Muir, Vancouver Province, September 14, 2012

Oh?  Ummm... Ok. So Klein's concerns that there are no buyers right now, that won't be an issue in 2013.

But what about sales for the rest of this year, in 2012?

"Employment growth in the ­Greater Vancouver area in the first ­seven months of the year has been 3.5 to 4 per cent ­higher than the same period last year. I would expect to see sales pick up before the end of the year, at least on a seasonally adjusted basis."

- Cameron Muir, Vancouver Province, September 14, 2012

Oh? Umm... Ok.

So the position of the BCREA is that Eugene Klein and the REBGV are completely off the mark with their concerns that the outlook for real estate sales is bleak because of changes to government mortgage regulations?

Good to know.

Let's check with another local expert, Tsur Somerville of the UBC Sauder School of Business.

Mr. Somerville... Eugene Klein is worried that there has been a clear reduction in buyer demand and this is a threat to the market. Will prices be going down anytime soon because of the government tightening of mortgage regulations?

"If there was a large number of unsold units coming onto the market or a huge change in the economic environment, that would really cause prices to tank. Most people don’t have to sell their house. You bought it for $200,000. The price is now $150,000. Unless you have to, why would you sell it?” For prices to go down ­significantly, you need people who have to sell, either because the economy has collapsed and they don’t have any income or developers have built a whole bunch of units that are unsold and the bank is screaming at them or foreclosing or something like that. None of those conditions appears imminent. It would take some negative shock, such as an ­economic meltdown or mortgage interest rates jumping from four per cent to nine or 10 per cent, to trigger lower prices."

- Tsur Somerville, Vancouver Province, September 14, 2012

Really? 

Ok.

So all these concerns that sales are stagnating, that this will prevent move up buyers, which will - in turn - fail to keep the market moving thus creating a domino effect leading to a drop in prices... this is all a load of shite?

Good to know.

Did you catch that Mr. Harper, Flaherty and Carney?

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Did the REBGV misrepresent the HPI decline for August?

In our last post we talked about the media coverage of the August 2012 real estate statistics in our little hamlet on the Edge of the Rainforest.

In their effort to manage the bad news, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) put on a brave face and did their best to spin the dreadful results. The REBGV President said:

"Home sales this summer have been lower than we’ve seen for most of the past 10 years, yet we continue to see relative stability when it comes to prices."

Sales were abysmal but the REBGV desperately grasped at 'the price straw' as their last hope.

They call it "price stability."

And by price stability, the REBGV means their precious Home Price Index. The group’s composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $609,500 which they tell us is down 0.5% from a year ago and 1.1% from July.

But faithful reader, P.C., takes issue with this claim.

I really enjoy reading your blog and I read it every week.

This is a note about that the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver incorrectly stating that the MLSLink Housing Price Index DROPPED 0.5%. THIS IS INCORRECT, IT SHOULD BE A 2.5% decline. Media outlets have followed the REBGV's "party line" of a 0.5% price drop.

I am basing the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark prices from pages published by the REBGV's own website in 2011 and 2012.

These websites mention that the August 2012 MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price was $609,500 while the Aug. 2011 MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price was $625,578.

So a simple calculation of $609,500 divided by $625,578 yields 0.9743 or a price decline of 2.5% NOT 0.5%.

I have contacted the REBGV people to ask them to issue a correction about this incorrect fact. I hope you and your readers will press them to correct their figures and pressure them to issue a news correction. Housing price numbers should be published correctly.

Thank you for your interesting articles, and keep up the good work!

So what do you think gang? 

Is P.C correct?

 Has the REBGV misrepresented the HPI decline in prices for August?

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A real estate news story made to order?

On Thursday we told you how Eugene Klein, president of Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), was perplexed.

On July 9th (only two days from now) insured 30-year amortizations will be a thing of the past.

And as the Globe and Mail newspaper noted, Mr. Klein was disappointed that he had not seen the expected rush of activity from some buyers eager to get into owning a home prior to the changes taking effect;

“We thought (we) would see a fervour of activity from people trying to get in under the line of the due date, but members haven’t been telling us that that’s the case. So we don’t know if the information is really out there, if consumers really understand it.”

Well... if they don't understand, best to get the word out then.

And in the time-worn fashion of manipulation that now characterizes the mainstream media/real estate industry relationship, we are suddenly treated to story telling us the exact opposite of what Klein claimed was going on in the market... and just so happens to promote precisely what he wished was happening.

It is exactly the type of manipulation that infuriates so many who watch real estate in this city.

You can almost envision how it plays out.

After lamenting what isn't happening, a story is crafted about a couple who learns of the impending mortgage changes, the story is packaged up, sent to a news reporter contact, and... lo and behold... the media eats it up and we are presented with a profile of couple who scrambles to buy before they are priced out by the new mortgage rules.

... with the underlying message that you might be missing out if you aren't doing the same.

Yesterday it was CBC news who appears to be playing the media patsy.

In a story titled "Home buyers scramble before mortgage rules change: just 2 days remain in which 30-year amortizations will be allowed", we follow Bruce and Denise Perrett, of Port Coquitlam, B.C.

We are told they got married last year and wanted to buy a house, but they weren’t in a rush. That all changed when the couple heard Ottawa was tightening mortgage rules.

CBC profiles how they "sprang into action and called their mortgage broker," got mortgage approval and beat deadline stress!

The Perretts spent 48 hours looking at homes and put an offer that was accepted last week on a property in Maple Ridge that has everything they want.

The best part is that they qualify for a 30-year mortgage.

“We probably wouldn't have been able to afford to mortgage a house, or at least not the house we wanted, if we hadn't jumped on it,” Bruce Perrett said.

On Thursday REBGV President Eugene Klein was fretting that young buyers weren't being sucked into the pressures of beating the mortgage deadlines and buying real estate.

Then he lamented that perhaps his industry wasn't getting the word out to the public about what they needed to do.

Suddenly, the very next day, a story appears in the media promoting EXACTLY what Klein wanted to see.

Riiight.

I wonder how many gullible couples will actually be suckered in by these types of tactics over the next two days?

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The falling knife

On Monday we told you how Eugen Klein, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), called May's negative real estate sales numbers a signal we were entering "a stabilizing period."

Most readers of this blog probably covered their mouths and coughed "horsesh*t" as they read that line.

Yesterday it was Tsur Sommerville's turn and his analysis was a little more bang on,

In the Vancouver Sun, Sommerville said he latest Metro Vancouver real estate numbers are "very clear signs" of a slowdown in the market.

"We're getting this consistently now. We're in a market that's much slower than what we're used to and I think that will transfer into much more sluggish prices, at best."

Much more sluggish prices, AT BEST, is right.

The negative feedback loop has now cycled into full gear and each day it seems the gloom and doom is making the mainstream news and permeating public consciousness.

Naturally the real estate industry will bend over backwards from portraying these conditions as anything near 'negative'.

Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, maintained that the market remains balanced.

"Overall, the market remains in balanced territory, which means no particular advantage for either the buyer or seller. We won't see much upward or downward pressure on the pricing side."

Plunging sales combined with soaring listings... how could that influence prices?

Unfortunately for the spin meisters, the reality is reflected in quotes like that from realtor Larry Yatkowsky:

"On average, about a 150 or 160 homes in Vancouver are reducing their price every day in the hope of catching, getting ahead of the train and maybe get out before they can't."

Who would want to play catch in this market?

Who would council someone to play catch in this market?

All I can do is sigh and shake my head.

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