'Fear' meets the Realtor of the Year.

Laurel Magri: lying, deceptive, manipulative whore.

"Fear.
Fear attracts the fearful...
the strong...
the weak...
the innocent...
the corrupt.
Fear. Fear is my ally."

- Darth Maul
Star Wars Ep. 1: The Phantom Menance

On March 3rd the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) put out it's monthly press release on sales.

Now, January and February have been dismal months for Greater Vancouver realtors. In fact, January was the slowest month is over 25 years with only 762 sales. February was better, but sales only totaled 1,480 - a decline of almost 50% from the year before.

So when over 9,700 members share 2,242 sales, it means REBGV realtors are on a pace to each see a commission cheque for one single housing sale once every 8 months.

Lean times indeed.

And what does the REBGV President, David Watt, have to say in his monthly press release to the media about the state of Real Estate in Vancouver?

He tries to use fear as a motivating tool to stimulate sales, of course.

"There are terrific opportunities out there right now, but with property listings continuing to decrease, those opportunities may be available only for a brief window of time”

Dave then goes on to warn, "Realtors are reporting more activity compared to recent months as people begin to see whether their position in the housing market has strengthened as a result of falling interest rates and improved affordability!”

In other words, buy now... quickly... before you miss out... buy now... opportunity is only here for a brief period of time. Buy now. Right now.

Fear.

It has been an effectively leveraged tactic in Greater Vancouver Real Estate sales throughout the housing boom.

But not everyone agrees with the approach.

Larry Yatkowsky, a Vancouver realtor, hosts his own website titled Yattermatters. Yatkowsky seperates himself from most Vancouver realtors by being upfront with clients and potential clients. In an industry that guards sales data like nuclear secrets, Yatkowsky is one of the few who regularly shares data with the public.

He regularly offers snapshots of sales activity on the westside neighbourhoods in which he specializes, snipits which detail sales completed, listings, price reductions... it's all freely shared on Yatkowsky's website.

I suspect Yatkowsky does not attempt to close deals with 'fear'.

And what does he think of his Professional Association's recent attempt at fearmongering? In a March 3rd, 2009 post he said:

"Upon reading [Watt's] latest missive in the REBGV’s February Stats report the stench of fear mongering remained as residue. Upsetting is that Dave crosses a line of credibility by adding 'but with property listings continuing to decrease, those opportunities may be available only for a brief window of time'. Really! Are there 14,543 buyers ready to buy every residential property in Vancouver today?... This and other prognostications espoused in the last months [release] resemble deposits of overheated crap."

Yatkowsky then goes on to say, "Some may consider this declaration overtly sensitive - they are entitled. The contention is that the Vancouver real estate consumer is worn and tired of having these ignoble pontifications pronounced by industry leaders... Admitted is that Dave’s statements mechanically are true. However, they are fat with the power of fear and it is that fat with which exception is taken!"

"The words 'for a brief window of time' implies a do or die, buy or cry mandate. They are words that instill fear’s chill in many families who struggle to buy their first home. That cold draft flows through them with torment at the thought of not being able to afford a home if they don’t buy right now."

"Geez Dave, give the Vancouver real estate consumer a break! The implication of your words is stink. The words exude a ’sad devotion’ to the ol’ ‘better buy now or you are going to lose your ass mantra’. It is a chant that is out of tune in this market place. Today’s consumers will not tolerate being frightened by ’sorcerer’s ways’! Instead they will choose other paths in their real estate acquisitions. They will find those with tempered wisdom, not those that obfuscate truth with worn incantations."

"Look around Dave - there are hundreds who did exactly that which you propose. Now, wishing they had never purchased real estate you have to ask, will those consumers ever believe in us again?"

Larry Yatkowsky... telling it like it is.

He gets my vote for Realtor of the Year.

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca

Vancouver "immune" from world-wide economic crisis???

David Watt is president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). He just issued a press release on sales statistics for the month ending January 2009.

Watt reported that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties declined 58.1 per cent in January 2009 to 762 from the 1,819 sales recorded in January 2008.

On their own, detached properties declined 54.4 per cent to 292 from the 641 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2008.

This bleak news has been followed up by a report from the British Columbia Real Estate Association that cites damning world wide economic conditions and a prediction that home values can be expected to fall by an additional 13% in 2009.

In plain language, this means you can expect the value of a home in Vancouver to collapse at a rate of over $7,000 per month for each and every month for the year 2009 (based on the current Benchmark price for detached homes).

Other analysts are calling for a steeper rate of decline and additional declines beyond that... all due to our faltering economy.

Should potential buyers worry they might 'catch a falling knife' if they buy a house right now?

Mr. Watt doesn't think so. In that same press release he goes on to advise potential buyers that, “Home sales and consumer confidence are at a low point at the moment, but the long-term strength and security of our housing market are beyond the reach of the economic clouds of today.”

Never mind that British Columbia depends on the American market for our lumber, our mining, our tourism and our construction industry. Never mind that the American ecnonomy is in freefall and the BC economy is about to be slammed hard.

Never mind that Real Estate sales volumes have collapsed, even though we are just months away from hosting the Olympic Games, even though mortgage rates have tumbled and even when the average home is now more than $122,000 cheaper. Never mind the negative momentum is clearly growing stronger.

Mr. Watt dismisses all of this saying, “Today’s short-term conditions are creating long-term opportunities. Buying opportunities have not been this strong in a decade, with low interest rates, broad selection and more affordable prices.”

Ummm... Earth to David?

Both the BC and Canadian economy are in dire straits.

Today we learned that the auto industry suffered a miserable January. Ford US sales plunge 40 pct., Toyota down 32 pct. and GM's Sales were so bad the odds bankruptcy have become almost a sure thing.

California, one of BC's largest trading partners, started issuing IOU (I-owe-you) vouchers instead of cheques on Monday as an ongoing budget battle and a $42-billion deficit left the state without enough cash to meet its commitments. State comptroller John Ching has warned that the state could completely run out of cash by the end of this month if a solution is not found. On Friday, tens of thousands of state workers will begin taking two days a month of forced leave without pay and a representative for the state's Department of Finance said checks were not being issued for Cal Grant college scholarships, county social services and the California Highway Patrol.

We also learned that the amount of vacant office sublease space in Vancouver has soared as businesses downsized and restructured due to the economic downturn, that Canadian Credit Card delinquencies are on a dramatic rise, and that the HSBC Celebration of Light has been cancelled this year because of the economic downturn... a move which will hurt downtown business severly this summer.

Despite all this, Mr. Watt says that this is a great time to saddle yourself with a mountain of debt and that any substantial housing purchase you make right now is beyond the reach of these economic woes.

Alrighty then.

The only question I have is... Where does David Watt actually live?

In Vancouver? Or in Disneyland?

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