Mayor’s house has sold for asking - Frances Bula

The latest on our Mayor's housing saga is that his Cambie area house has not only sold... but sold for the asking price, at least according to this from Frances Bula's blog:

Okay, this is Friday fluff, but whatever. I feel I must contribute to the ongoing deep investigations into Mayor Gregor Robertson’s change of abode by reporting that his Douglas Park-area house has apparently sold, for the asking price of whatever it was, $1.95 million or something...

No one seems to see Robertson’s move, from a single-family house near Emily Carr elementary in central Vancouver to a smaller place in Kits near the beach, as symbolic of the prototypical Vancouver downsizing. Instead, it seems to have turned into massive theory-building about how it has something to do with the Point Grey bike lane. Or his federal-election ambitions. Or something.

Readers of this blog know we have focused around the former of those two angles to this story.  The latter we touched upon Wednesday when we hilighted this Georgia Straight story:

What's intriguing about the move is that Robertson now lives much farther away from his workplace at Vancouver City Hall.

Normally, cyclists like to live closer to the office.

Perhaps this suggests there could be federal political implications for Robertson, who is sometimes viewed as a future candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada.

His old residence is in the proposed new riding of Vancouver-Granville, which is being carved out of parts of other ridings in the city. There is no MP for this riding yet.

His new home is likely in Vancouver Quadra, which is represented by Liberal MP Joyce Murray. That's because most of York Avenue is west of Arbutus Street, which is the boundary for the riding. East of Arbutus is within Hedy Fry's riding of Vancouver Centre.

Murray ran against Justin Trudeau in this year’s federal Liberal leadership race.

Whoever becomes the Liberal candidate in Vancouver Quadra is likely a shoo-in to get elected to Parliament.

Could Robertson be planning a challenge against Murray for the Liberal nomination after he wins a third term as mayor in 2014? Stay tuned.

In case you missed it, the Georgia Straight did follow up on this story.

 In an article titled Mayor Gregor Robertson says he can't imagine seeking a Liberal nomination in Vancouver Quadra, the Straight reported:

The Mayor of Vancouver says his decision to sell his house and move west has nothing to do with federal politics.

In a scrum with reporters at the corner of Yew Street and West 4th Avenue, Gregor Robertson said he intends on remaining mayor as long as the citizens of Vancouver keep electing him to that position.

When the Straight asked if he would categorically rule out running for Parliament in the next federal election, he replied: “I can’t imagine that happening right now. As I’ve said, I’m looking at running for a third term as mayor.”

He also said: "We have a duly elected MP in Vancouver Quadra [Joyce Murray] who serves the city well."

The picture above was taken by the Straight as part of the media scrum that lead to the Straight's follow up. Looks like the media and our Mayor were having a cordial, folksy chat.

But there was a disturbing development affecting some of the very media coverage on this story that seems to have gone unnoticed by the esteemed members of our local fourth estate.

We're still trying to track down some information about it. We may have more for you Sunday afternoon.

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
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The media says... HAM is "fizzling out"

So I was sitting in a cafe near Canada Place this morning with a group of 'friends of friends' who had just finished running the Vancouver Marathon (or in their case... the half marathon) and the topic turned to real estate.

One astute member for the 'friends of friends' clan was explaining to a colleague about why downtown condo prices, which have been falling recently, will continue to fall.

Our table was long, but my ears had not deceived me. The bear case was being eloquently laid out!

Listening in, my heart shone as this learned individual explained the current market dynamics.

It wasn't long before your faithful scribe chimed in about the impending OSFI changes to LTV mortgage renewals to complete the discussion when he turned and said, "ah... so you know all to well what's going on!"

Indeed... and clearly I'm not alone as one glance at the weekend papers indicate enlightenment isn't just occurring in local cafe's.

For several years now this, and other blogs, have ruminated that the phenomena of HAM (Hot Asian Money) was not a panacea to the everlasting inflation of our housing bubble.

And as the Spring market fails to materialize, it becoming very evident to all that Chinese buyers are not going to save the market.

It's so evident that even the local newspaper columnist Frances Bula is now writing about it.

Bula writes that the:

"boom of sky-high prices for Vancouver west-side houses – one that provoked media around the world to claim with scant proof that mainland Chinese investors were buying up the city – is fizzling out."

Bula notes that a house in the 3000 block of West 24th Anenue, first listed at near $4.5-million six months ago, sold on April 15 for $3.35-million, over $1 million chopped off the asking price.

Fresh statistics from the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board show the number of sales on the west side is down by nearly 40% for the first four months of the year. Only a third of the nearly 400 homes listed in April have sold – one of the lowest rates in the region.

And Bula quotes west-side realtor Marty Pospischil, who specializes in selling single-family homes owned by long-term residents, who says that last year, 90% of his 100 house sales were to “offshore buyers”. This year, it’s less than a tenth of that.

Pospischil also noted:

“We’re now seeing a 50% collapse rate in deals, when it’s usually more like 5%.”

The reason?

In addition to the lack of money flowing from China, there is another factor hitting sales hard.

“Banks are now requiring borrowers to disclose incomes and assets before mortgages are approved, as of the last six weeks.”

Meanwhile Bula quotes another west side realtor, who specializes in single family homes. He notes:

“I always thought that market was not sustainable. Every local person was juiced out of the market. The average household income on the west side doesn’t support those prices.”

Wow!

Not that we haven't been saying the exact same thing.

But to see these types of headlines coming from mainstream media in the Vancouver real estate scene, it tells you this is a market in trouble.

For if HAM is evaporating, mortgage rules are tightening and local incomes can't support the current bubble prices; it means there is only one way the market can go.

As long time residents painlessly slash $1 million dollars off those sky high prices for homes they only paid $60,000 to $80,000 for back in the mid-1970s, you have to wonder how long before the free-fall in prices starts?

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
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