Ready, Set, A New Year Begins

So we enter 2013 with a massive wave of expired listings.

Today gave way to a total inventory drop of -2,103.

It means Vancouver Inventory starts off 2013 at 11,789.  In 2012 we started off with 10,671. So 2013 comes in just over 1,000 listings higher.

Of course these numbers represent Vancouver Inventory.  Realtor Larry Yatkowsky provides us with this graph of Greater Vancouver Inventory comparing the start of 2013 with 2012 and 2011:

Perhaps the most striking element that stands out is the way listings dramatically drop off from the last week of October to the end of the year in each of the 3 years.

The other most striking element is how much higher those listings are at this time compared to 2010/11 - about 35% higher.

Of course now the fun begins.  In the next week or so listings will start to flood in in preparation for the Spring market.  Looking at the graph above 2012 was almost a carbon copy of 2011,  only with much higher numbers.

Will 2013 climb over 2012's back the way 2012 climbed over 2011?

Vancouver Westside realtor Sam Wyatt reports that there are currently 700 listings of properties for sale over $1 million. In December there were a mere 49 sales – or 14 months of inventory - and this before the spring market surge comes.

Says Wyatt:

Months of inventory will continue its upward trend and prices will continue to fall. My prediction: the average SFH in Van will drop back to 2010 prices by March or April. And lots more to come after that.

Which brings us to our first property profile of 2013.

This is 3963 W. 22nd Avenue:

This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2,338 square foot home is currently assessed at $1,478,500.

Interestingly it was purchased on February 21, 2012 for $1,805,000 (see BC Assessment above - click to enlarge).

Clearly purchased to flip (or develop), it is another example of a speculator bailing before the drop begins in earnest.  And lucky for him he found a buyer.  The house sold for $1,580,000 today (hat tip gse36 on RET).

It's a curious contrast.

The seller lost 12.5% (not including transaction fees), but the property still sold for above assessment.

Is it a fatal buying mistake?  Or a bold move in advance of a new spring boom?

A New Year begins.

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Tues Post #2: How crazy is real estate speculation in Vancouver?

You gotta love the chutzpah of a bubble market.

The video above is for 1490 Balfour Avenue, a mansion in the toney Shaughnessy neighbourhood of Vancouver.

It's 8 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms and 3 half bathrooms. A massive 9,414 square foot house on a 17,827 square foot lot.

The current assessed value of the property is $3.05 million.

So how crazy is the speculation in our market?

Well...  in May of 2011 this house was acquired for $2.98 million.

In January 2012 it was listed for $5.98 million!

(Really? You're trying to flip a home for a $3 million profit?)

In March 2012 the asking price was 'reduced' to $4.88 million.

Recently the asking price was 'reduced' again and the current asking price is $3.988 million. Here is a screenshot of the current listing (click to enlarge):

If it sells for that price, it still amounts to a $1million gross profit in one year. Clearly the buyer was hoping to take advantage of HAM (Hot Asian Money) and the evaporation of that market has cut the bottom out of this buyer's wild expectations.

You have to wonder if the property is marketed as '40% off'?

Such a deal, eh?

Hat tip: gse36

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
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Please read disclaimer at bottom of blog.