Tues Post #1: Vancouver's Average Price hits a new record high!

As always, real estate agent Larry Yatkowsky is out with the latest statistics right off the bat.

Larry tells us Vancouver’s Detached homes average price in November reached an all time high as November 2013 registered $1,259,775. The previous record was set in May 2011 when the average price recorded was $1,223,421.

Compared to the same period last year, the number of detached homes sold were 47% higher – up from 635 to 934. Inventory dropped by 9%, down from 6,775 to 6,103.

Says Larry:

It’s not a surprise to see Vancouver’s detached home prices reach a new record high. Casual observation suggests continued increases may be the standard for the single family homes. While we all wish to own property in the ‘best’ parts of the city, the limitation of available land precludes this notion. It seems inevitable that ownership of a single family homes in Vancouver will continue to be ever more precious.

Dreams don’t always come true. Visions where everyone should own a detached home on a plot of land in Vancouver may is a different reality. Ever increasing prices for detached properties re-confirm that Vancouver is not egalitarian.

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Monday Post #2: "Beware those housing statistics," says Fraser Valley journalist

Anyone who follows the real estate blogs in Canada knows the bear blogs have long questioned the statistics churned out by the real estate boards.

The industry's HPI is dubbed a 'franken' number and blogosphere champions like Garth Turner have long questioned the reliability of those stats.

The latest to cast aspersions is Win Wachsmann. Author, journalist, syndicated columnist, filmmaker, publisher and businessman, Wachsmann makes his home in the Fraser Valley of British Columbia.

And in a column today in the Huffington Post he asks, "What's Happening to Housing Statistics in Canada?"

In recent months the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and its various provincial boards have come under increasing criticism for manipulating sales and price figures.

Their favorite word? Average. They even have a page called the National Average Price Map.

Wachsmann wonders aloud about this 'average':

Does "average" refer to median (half the numbers are higher and half are lower? (3,4,5,6,7; i.e. 2 numbers are lower and 2 are higher.)

Or does "average" refer to arithmetic mean - where the sum of the values is divided by the number of values.? (In other words the average of 2,2,1,4 & 16 is 5; i.e. 25/5)

Indeed. Win continues…

While studying mathematics and science in University, I was introduced to a marvelous book called How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff.

Huff details how to spot data (statistical) manipulation and how to read data analysis properly so that you will not be misled.

It seems that the folks in the Real Estate Associations and Boards have been buying this book by the case lot as their data manipulation has been elevated to a new art form.

Not only are their numbers suspect, but the language used on their website and in their press releases also easily exceeds the Statistical Hyperbolic Indicative Terminology index.

Here's an example:

"While the Finance Minister will no doubt continue to keep a close eye on Canadian housing markets for signs of overheating as interest rates remain low, October sales results may provide him with reassurance that tightened mortgage regulations and lending guidelines are working as intended." said Gregory Klump, CREA's Chief Economist.

Love those rose-colored glasses Gregory.

So what is happening with housing statistics in Canada?

For those looking for easy answers, check out the mainstream media, who seem to be in the press release rewriting mode. In some cases they don't even disguise their laziness. It's Press Release Verbatim!

That probably works for your maiden aunt and those Low Information Readers.

For the rest, you will have to do some digging to come up with the real Real Estate Data.

Don't go making huge real estate buying decisions based on data released by realtors and Real Estate Associations whose main goal is to separate you from your hard-earned money. By buying/upgrading/enhancing your lifestyle.

Is now a good time to buy? Will prices ever go down? Can I afford to wait?

If you are an affluent and successful boomer, perhaps now is the time to sell. Before all the other boomers get wise to a declining market?

Evaluate all those housing statistics carefully.

Who is promoting that data? What's in it for them? Are they looking out for you? Or for themselves?

Do they have a vested interest?

For Win (and many in the blogosphere) the answer is obvious.

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Monday Post #1: Richmond Vancouver a seller's market? Realtor responds "whoaaa…"

UPDATE: The data in Richmond Realtor Shuchat's post is about Vancouver, not Richmond, as originally posted on this blog. The reference to Richmond has been removed (hat tip A. Shuchat).

Yesterday we told you how Realtor Alphabet Arnie Shuchat had declared Vancouver "a seller's market"

But before we break out in a chorus of 'happy days are here again', AA would like to clarify:

Thanks for the post and quote... but whoaaa..... Whisperer, easy on my conclusions. I pointed out a trend using just one simple metric. Obviously there are others. A "Seller's Delusion Ratio" of 71% is still not the 29% of February 2011. It is 3 times worse. The noteworthy point here is the trend.

It was certainly a seller's market at 29% and it was certainly a buyer's market at 244%. 

I am not aware of anybody else who has used this metric to define a market as a buyer or seller's market and I cannot say for sure at what point in the SDR ratio the market is a buyer or a seller's market.

It is the recent trend to lower ratios which caused the observation. Obviously other metrics need to be examined as well.

Guess we will have to hold off on the string of bullish real estate posts we had planned.

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Alphabet Arnie declares that the Richmond Vancouver Real Estate market is now a 'sellers market' - UPDATED

UPDATE: The data in Richmond Realtor Shuchat's post is about Vancouver, not Richmond, as originally posted on this blog. The reference to Richmond has been removed (hat tip A. Shuchat).

Local Richmond realtor, Arnold Shuchat,  is out with his latest market analysis and he declares the Vancouver market has turned.  Now it's a seller's market:

If one wanted a weather vane to see where the real estate market winds are blowing, this would be as close to it as one could get. I designed the Seller's Delusion Index to track sellers' frustration over time, with the hypotheses being that the more expired and terminated listings there are as a ratio to sales, the greater the downward pressure on real estate prices. A seller has two options: cut his price or take it off the market. One results in a sale and the other a terminated listing.

As an historical measure, (Terminated + Expired listings) divided by number of sales in or about February of 2011 an accepted market high point, were running close to historic lows of about 27% depending on property type. At the worst recent time since then, they were running around 244%. That is akin to saying that when things are "hot" sellers had a 1 in 3 chance of being frustrated, whereas when things cooled down, they were 9 times more likely to be frustrated.

As one can see from the chart below, sellers' expectation are being more fully met now and the trend is leaning towards a seller's market once again. This table supercedes all previous ones as the sufficient time lapse following the months' end assures a more accurate set of numbers to allow for complete reporting of sales, terminated and expired listings.

Hopefully a turning market will keep this real estate agent busy enough so that he doesn't have time to do any more video's…

Hat tip: Son of Ponzi and crash cow

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BC Foreclosure Update for week ending Nov. 22, 2013

BC Foreclosure Update for week ending Nov. 22, 2013 from Ham Solo over on Vancouver Condo Info.

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It was 50 years ago today...

This unique clip is from CBS television on November 22, 1963.  At approximately the 10:00 mark, the soap opera "As the World Turns" is interrupted with the famous CBS news bulletin.  After the initial bulletin, coverage continues at about the 13:00 minute mark.

Next is the announcement of Kennedy's death:

And from Oliver Stone's JFK:

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The new twist on gullible?

Ad for Trump Tower in Vancouver.  Their slogan: "The new twist on Luxury"

Does this really sell condo's?

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Remembrance Day 2013

At 11 am on the 11th of November 1918, European hostilities officially paused after the German government accepted the terms of armistice given them by the allied forces.

The following year the cease fire was made permanent with the signing of the Treaty of Versailles, but it is the 11th of the 11th that has become the symbolic time of peace.

The 11th of November was originally called Armistice Day, but was changed to Remembrance Day after World War II as a gesture to commemorate all who have given their lives serving our great country.

They shall grow not old as we that are left grow old.
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.

Today and tomorrow we pause to remember those Canadians who lost their lives in service to our wonderful country.

This ultimate sacrifice simply cannot be framed in any form that does justice. All we can do is join those today who pause... remember... and say 'thank you'.

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"If you want affordable housing go to Detroit" - Sauder School of Business

Posts have been few lately due to circumstances beyond our control, but we couldn't let this latest gem go by unreported.

In today's Vancouver Sun there is an article titled "Housing affordability not as cut-and-dried as it seems. Complex issue: The figures look daunting, but somehow Vancouverites have been coping with the cost"

The Sun reports that the simple numbers on housing affordability in Metro Vancouver are unequivocally alarming: It costs just over 8½ times the median after-tax household income of $61,975 to buy a home for the median price of $517,677.34.

Compared to the norm in banking circles just a generation or two ago when low-equity borrowers were likely to be denied a mortgage if the cost of the house they wanted was more than three times what they earned in a year, this seems insane.

But the article argues that if you look at the issue more closely, the message is nuanced and somewhat mixed.

Today's 8.5-to-one ratio is, to be sure, quite a bit worse than 20 years ago when it was 6.6 to one, and even worse still than the 5.9 to one figure in 2003. But ...

These historical ratios, though lower than today's, were still very high by any conventional measure, and they never once dipped to a low or even "normal" level during the entire duration of the last two decades. Yet Vancouverites still coped, and the population still grew by well over 500,000 in that 20-year period...

Half the reason for a high priceto-income ratio is not the cost of a home, but rather the lacklustre growth of personal incomes in Metro Vancouver over recent years to the point where we trail most major cities in Canada. If this turns around - and, once again, there are no guarantees - the affordability squeeze will ease.

The central message?

Robert Helsley, dean of the Sauder School of Business, added an additional perspective when he spoke last week at a UBC-sponsored symposium on affordability. He suggested Vancouver's high home prices are "the price of admission" to this amenity-rich little corner of the world.

Similarly highly priced real estate is found in other places where people really want to live - Hong Kong, San Francisco, London and New York, to name a few.

"If you want affordable housing," Helsley said, "go to Detroit."

Instead of calls to halt the easy credit and low interest rates that fuelled and created the unaffordability to begin with, we get sermons to 'let them eat cake'.

Marvellous.

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BC Foreclosure Update

Over on Vancouver Condo Info, Ham Solo shares the data from BC Foreclosure filings for Oct. 31, 2013 and month to date totals. From Ham:

At the end of the first month of daily data. Vancouver stayed running at a fairly steady pace of six filings per working day. So big picture, what is going on with British Columbia foreclosures? First, I think one needs to understand the data. Courts aren’t located in every municipality, so “New Westminster” foreclosures probably include Port Moody or Coquitlam, while “Nanaimo” might include Qualicum Beach etc. That being said we can get a pretty good look at what is going on regionally.

The basic situation is that the periphery is doing worse than the big city. If I annualize the data by population, the Lower Mainland as a whole is running at about 0.7 annual foreclosures per 1000 population. That compares to Vancouver Island with a run-rate of 1.3 foreclosures/1000 pop; Okanagan at 1.8 foreclosures/1000 pop; and Kootenays and North maybe running 2-3 foreclosures/1000 pop with those last two regions most susceptible to problems in counting and defining the right regional population number.

Turning to lenders, I think the basic model of all the banks, roughly in proportion to retail market share, is to write any old mortgage at any old level to someone that can be covered by CMHC/Genworth wrappers. There is no bank that seems to be extra careful … Royal’s share this month is a bit lower than I would have expected, CIBC’s a little higher. The specialty mortgage co’s are active across the province and must be punching much higher than their weight in terms of foreclosure volumes to mortgage assets. Credit unions, whom I thought might be the loosest lenders of the bunch, seem to be there in about expected market share.

We clearly are not in a meltdown. I’d be interested if other readers have the data on what the foreclosure numbers per 1000 pop got to in various US states. However, we have a good sense of the base. This data series will probably spike at some point, maybe beginning next month, maybe beginning in 3 years, I can’t say. Like others, I’ve been surprised at how well prices have held up and how few foreclosures have occurred to this point. However, I suspect that 20-40% of current “homeowners” would be in serious trouble at either in a 5% interest rate environment or in a material recession regardless of the rate picture.

As there is a little repetition in the daily numbers, going forward I will share the data weekly.

A big thanks to Ham for his efforts.

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Halloween or Hallowe'en (a contraction of "All Hallows' Evening"), also known as All Hallows' Eve, is a yearly celebration observed in a number of countries on October 31.

It is the eve of the Western Christian feast of All Hallows or All Saints Day. 

According to many scholars it was originally influenced by western European harvest festivals and festivals of the dead with possible pagan roots, particularly the Celtic Samhain.

Others maintain that it originated independently of Samhain and has Christian roots.

North American almanacs of the late 18th and early 19th century give no indication that Hallowe'en was celebrated there.

The Puritans of New England maintained strong opposition to Hallowe'en and it was not until the mass Irish and Scottish immigration during the 19th century that it was brought to North America in earnest.

Confined to the immigrant communities during the mid-19th century, it was gradually assimilated into mainstream society and by the first decade of the 20th century it was being celebrated coast to coast by people of all social, racial and religious backgrounds.

Typical festive Halloween activities include trick-or-treating (also known as "guising"), attending costume parties, carving pumpkins into jack-o'-lanterns, lighting bonfires, apple bobbing, visiting haunted attractions, playing pranks, telling scary stories, and watching horror films.

How so ever you choose to mark the day, to each and all... a safe and happy night.

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Canso Investment Counsel President John Carswell discusses the Canadian housing bubble

Canso Investment Counsel President John Carswell discusses the the prospect of a Canadian housing bubble and its effects on the marketplace:

Mike: John you've had very strong view with the U.S. housing crisis and subprime mortgage lending. Maybe you could update us with your views now on the Canadian market.

John: Well Mike if you look at the United States situation you had a lot of signs in their marketplace that their housing market was overvalued. At the same time the Canadian housing market was overvalued by similar measures.

But when the Americans had their subprime mortgage meltdown, people bought houses they couldn't afford through securitization, the music stopped, and there was no money available so the housing market crashed.

If you look through history there has never been a soft landing in a real estate market. Normally people buy, and they buy, and they buy, and there is leverage involved. So when you have speculators that have borrowed money for rising asset prices, that's not good.

If in Canada all of the houses and condos that we have constructed were owned by people that were going to live in them; we estimate prices should fall thirty to forty percent to make them affordable for people. Even at that there is probably not enough people to buy the houses.

The problem now becomes all these foreign investors who have been buying condos and houses. Are they coming to Canada because they want to become Canadian and live with us? No. They're trying to get money out of their home country because of political turmoil. Iranian, Russians, and Chinese who fear regime change are buying six hundred square foot condos as an investment.

Well the cash yield on condos now in the Toronto market is about two percent. If you buy a condo for six hundred dollars you will get something in the vicinity of twelve thousand dollars a year. That's one thousand dollars a month and that's not very good for your investment health.

So what we think is going to happen is people say you need a catalyst, rising rate or unemployment. Well you never know what the catalyst is going to be until afterwards, but if houses were overvalued by fifty percent, and the people who live in them can't afford their own houses, why should the prices be that high?

What we think is going to happen here is the housing market is going to settle back at some point. And what does that mean? Well, thirty percent of our economy is based on housing. If you look at GDP, gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services in the economy, Canada and the United States were both spending three to four percent.

During the credit bubble from 2002 to 2007 we went up to six-seven percent. The Americans have dropped back down to two to three percent, while we've increased. So the problem now becomes 'do we need all these houses'? Well, I'd suggest to people living in a four thousand square foot house, because they got the biggest mortgage and the biggest house as an investment, that they might have trouble selling it if there is not someone else who wants to have an investment.

So how does it happen and when does it happen? We don't know. But one of the reasons we have such a low weight in Canadian financial stocks, and people exposed to Canadian consumers, is that if you have the most levered consumers in the world, and they borrowed the most and have the least ability to service their debt, at some point things won't work out for them.

Almost sounds too logical, doesn't it? Particularly given the statistics from our last post.

But in the frenzy of a bubble, logic is always in short supply.

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In these two sets of numbers lie Canada's housing bubble.

There's an article in today's Vancouver Sun by Barbara Yaffe.

Titled: The high cost of home ownership: Canadian homeowners carried nearly $1.2 trillion in mortgage debt last year, the article shares a stunning statistic:

The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals estimates, homeowners in this country — of whom 60 per cent carry mortgages — owed nearly $1.2 trillion in mortgage debt last year, up from $664 billion in 2008. In other words, national mortgage debt has nearly doubled in just four years.

Combine that with the fact that CMHC has gone from $100 Billion in insured mortgages in 2006 to almost $600 Billion today and you know where Canadians got the money to bid the price of real estate to astronomical levels.

Debt fuelled our bubble, plain and simple.

Throw in emergency level interest rates to facilitate the low monthly payments on massive mortgage amounts and you get a real sense of why the bubble has continued for so long.

But make no mistake.  These are not real estate prices which reflect intrinsic value.  The real estate bubble is born of excess credit.  Massive, excess credit.

This is a scenario that has been repeated over and over the past 500 years.

• Tipper and See-Saw Time (1621)
• Tulip mania (top 1637)
• South Sea Company (1720)
• Mississippi Company (1720)
• Railway Mania (1840s)
• Encilhamento ("Mounting") (1886–1892)
• Florida speculative building bubble (1926)
• Roaring Twenties stock-market bubble (c. 1922–1929)
• Poseidon bubble (1970)
• Japanese asset price bubble (1980s)
  • 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (1997)
• The Dot-com bubble (1995–2000)

A boom caused by excess credit will always bust. Ours will be no different.

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Are you ready for Laneway House tours?

The Laneway house concept was launched in 2009 and Vancouver recently passed the 1,000 Laneway house permit mark.

On October 19th, 2013 the Vancouver Heritage Foundation is holding a Laneway House Tour.

That's right... we've now reached the truly sublime as the archaic is raised aloft.

The tour will take you to seven laneway homes, runs for approximately four hours, and can accommodate up to 500 people. Tickets are $30.

Incredibly this is the 2nd tour offered this year.  Supposedly the first one on June 2nd, 2013 was so successful this reprise tour has been scheduled rather than wait for Laneway House Tour 2014.

Presumably a mortgage broker will be on hand to perform sleight of hand and facilitate your technically illegal , zero down, CMHC insured, million dollar mortgage application.

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The View from Richmond - James Wong's monthly real estate update

Richmond real estate agent James Wong is out with his mid October report on the end of September sales data.

Richmond’s housing market is stabilizing.

Richmond experienced one of the highest run-up in home prices the past 10 years. The fear of a impending collapse in home prices in 2013 did not happen. The built up in the supply of homes in the second half of 2012 slowed down through 2013, aided by improved sales since March, 2013. The MOIs for detached homes, townhomes and condos are now at more balanced levels.

The double digits MOIs for detached homes, townhomes and condos a year ago declined gradually to around 7, 5 and 6 respectively towards the end of September, 2013.

What to expect of 2014?

The 5-year mortgage rate jumped moderately and currently it is about 0,5% higher than 6 months ago. Home prices in Richmond managed to hold at current level after suffering from around 12% drop in values compared to their peaks around the middle of 2011.

When home ownership is reported to be at the 70% level, and average annual household income just over $60,000, the demand for homes are depending on interest rates remaining low for extended period of time. The housing market is fragile. At current price levels, any further spike up in interest rates would defer many first time and move-up buyers from buying.

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In honour of the Debt Ceiling extension, an interesting video by Mike Maloney on the US Federal Reserve

The debt ceiling debate in the United States is over (for a few months, at least) and to we take the opportunity to hilight this video from Mike Maloney discussing the debt based money system and the current version of US Currency: the Federal Reserve note.

We say 'current version' because the United States has gone through a number of different currency's in it's 237 year history.

The current version, the Federal Reserve note, is only 99 years old.

So as the US debt ceiling is raised once again, we bring you this interesting dissertation on the fiat the currently makes up the world's reserve currency.

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Wed Post #2:Typhoon Wipha hits Japan; catastrophe avoided at Fukushima

Following up on yesterday's post about a 'once-in-a-decade' Typhoon hitting Japan and the threat it posed to the Tsunami-ravaged Fukushima nuclear power plant, it appears the storm has now passed.

Good news for both Japan and the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest which would be impacted by any radiation spewing into the atmosphere.

From The Guardian newspaper:

TyphoonWipha has killed 17 people so far and more than 50 are missing. Izu Oshima, an island south of Tokyo was worst hit, suffering landslides and flooding. During the height of the storm, more than 500 flights at Tokyo's Haneda and Narita airports were cancelled, and thousands of schools closed. About 20,000 people were told to leave their homes because of the danger of flooding . Typhoon Wipha was the worst storm to hit the region since October 2004.

In a follow up article from The Guardian: Typhoon Wipha wreaks deadly destruction on Japan

A typhoon has killed 17 people in Japan, but largely spared the capital and brushed by the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power station.

More than 50 people were missing after typhoon Wipha roared up Japan's east coast, including two schoolboys engulfed by waves on a beach; 20 more were hurt by falls or being struck by flying debris. About 20,000 people were told to leave their homes because of the danger of flooding and hundreds of flights were cancelled.

Sixteen people were killed on Izu Oshima island, about 75 miles (120km) south of Tokyo, as rivers burst their banks. The storm set off mudslides along a mile-long stretch of mountains.

Wipha sustained winds of 78mph (126km/h) with gusts up to 180km/h.

The storm brought hurricane-force winds and torrential rain to the Tokyo metropolitan area of 30 million people at the peak of the morning rush-hour.

The operator of the Fukushima nuclear plant, Tokyo Electric Power Corp, cancelled all offshore work and secured machinery as the storm approached.

The operator, known as Tepco, has been struggling to contain radioactive leaks since a 2011 earthquake and tsunami caused extensive damage and triggered the world's worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl in 1986.

A Tepco spokesman said Typhoon Wipha had caused no new problems at the plant, which is on the coast 130 miles (220km) north of Tokyo.

The storm dumped heavy rain that had to be pumped out of protective containers at the base of about 1,000 tanks storing radioactive water, the byproduct of a jerry-rigged cooling system designed to control wrecked reactors.

The rainwater was checked for radioactivity and released into the sea, the company spokesman said.

Wipha has been down-graded to a tropical depression.

The photo above shows a man walking near collapsed houses following a landslide caused by Typhoon Wipha on Izu Oshima island, south of Tokyo.

From The Japan Times:

Typhoon Wipha brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Tokyo metropolitan area early Wednesday, shutting down large portions of the region’s transportation network.

On Izu Oshima Island in the Pacific about 120 km south of Tokyo, at least 13 bodies were found and around 20 people were missing after several houses collapsed amid record rainfall of 122.5 mm per hour, according to local authorities and police.

In Machida, Tokyo, a woman believed to be in her 40s died after being swept away by a swollen river, police said.

Air travel was heavily disrupted. Japan Airlines grounded 189 domestic flights while All Nippon Airways scrapped 211 domestic and international flights.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. said it took steps to deal with water inside barriers around tanks storing radioactive water at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.

Tepco has set tentative limits on radioactive materials in water around the tanks and will release water inside their barriers if radiation levels are below those ceilings. The ceilings are 25 becquerels per liter for cesium-137, 15 becquerels for cesium-134 and 10 becquerels for strontium-90.

All of the ceilings are one-third of the legal thresholds for the release of water into the sea.

At the tank areas where high radioactivity levels were detected, water near the tanks will be transferred to a newly build 4,000-ton makeshift tank.

With the storm now heading towards Alaska it appears further catastrophe, thankfully, has been avoided for now.

Below is some raw footage from Japan:



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Wed Post #1: Inventory Tracker Stats

A number of you have been asking about the Inventory Tracker stats on the sideboard.  The blogger widget has not been functioning for the past few months so we've been unable to make updates.

Today we were successfully able to delete the widget and re-enter the monthly totals.  Regular daily entries will resume starting in November.

Speaking of stats, below is a screenshot from VCI of Ham Solo's latest foreclosure statistics for you (click to enlarge):

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From bad to worse: Once-in-a-decade Typhoon threatens Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant

For those who follow the VW twitter feed, you know that one faithful reader (@Travel_Uruguay) has been a keen follower of the developments around the Fukushima nuclear power plant since the devastating earthquake/Tsunami of March 11, 2011.

Last week a tweet was received from TU regarding an article on the website ENENEWS, which headlined: Pro-Nuclear Expert: Typhoon collapsing Fukushima fuel pool “a very real concern — I don’t know what it is they’re doing about that”

And almost as if on cue, the world is watching this morning as news organizations like Reuters report: A once-in-a-decade typhoon threatened Japan on Tuesday, disrupting travel and shipping and forcing precautions to be taken at the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Japan is currently being assaulted by Typhoon Wipha which is moving across the Pacific straight towards the capital, Tokyo, and is expected to make landfall during the morning rush hour bringing hurricane-force winds to the metropolitan area of 30 million people.

The center of the storm was 860 km (535 miles) southwest of Tokyo at 0800 GMT, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on its website. It was moving north-northeast at 35 kph (22 mph).

The storm had weakened as it headed north over the sea but was still packing sustained winds of about 140 kph (87 mph) with gusts as high as 194 kph (120 mph), the agency said.

The agency issued warnings for Tokyo of heavy rain, flooding and gales, and advised people to be prepared to leave their homes quickly and to avoid unnecessary travel.

A spokesman for the meteorological agency said the storm was a "once in a decade event".

The typhoon is expected to sweep through northern Japan after making landfall and to pass near the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant, on the coast 220 km (130 miles) northeast of Tokyo, later on Wednesday.

Typhoon Wipha is the strongest storm to approach eastern Japan since October 2004. That cyclone triggered floods and landslides that killed almost 100 people, forced thousands from their homes and caused billions of dollars in damage.

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Happy Thanksgiving

Monday is Thanksgiving Day today in Canada and Columbus Day for our American cousins.

A lot of people wonder why Thanksgiving Day in Canada is celebrated so much earlier than in the United States.

The first Thanksgiving Day after Canadian Confederation was observed as a civic holiday on April 5, 1872, to celebrate the recovery of the Prince of Wales (later King Edward VII) from a serious illness.

Starting in 1879 Thanksgiving Day was observed every year, but the date was initially a Thursday in November. 

The date of celebration changed several times until, in 1957, it was officially declared to be the second Monday in October. 

The theme of the Thanksgiving holiday also changed each year to reflect an important event to be thankful for. In its early years it was for an abundant harvest and occasionally for a special anniversary.

After World War I, an amendment to the Armistice Day Act established that Armistice Day and Thanksgiving would both be celebrated on the Monday of the week in which November 11 occurred, starting in 1921.

Ten years later, in 1931, the two days became separate holidays, and Armistice Day was renamed Remembrance Day. From 1931 to 1957, the date was set by proclamation, generally falling on the second Monday in October, except for 1935, when it was moved due to a general election.

In 1957, Thanksgiving was permanently set to be the second Monday in October.

Happy Thanksgiving Day to all and all the best to each and every one who stops by the blog today.

if you're reading this Sunday night, remember to set the scale back 10lbs before bed ;-)

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
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Vancouver's foreclosure rate running at 6 per day in October 2013

As mentioned in the last post, Ham Solo has been posting daily foreclosure data on cases filed in BC over on the blog Vancouver Condo Info.

As of October 10th, there have been 48 foreclosures in the City of Vancouver.

That's a rate of 6 per business day at a time when record setting cheap interest rates are supposed to help people pay off their debts.

It speaks volumes.

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Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
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