Monday, January 16, 2012

Is January shaping up to be a Real Estate disaster in Greater Vancouver?

Over the past two weeks we have seen a seemingly endless stream of negative Real Estate items, including the stunning recommendation from R/E optimist Ozzie Jurock that if you are a seller - list NOW!, if you are a buyer - hold off.

You have to wonder... what will be the impact on buyer psychology of all this bearish analysis?  I mean... who wants to catch a falling knife, right?

Indications from those close to the industry indicate that last week's numbers were absolutely brutal for the R/E industry.  Over on the blog, Vancouver Condo Info, this sentiment was echo'd by contributor ZRH2YVR who says: 
  • "Sales at this time of year are typically slow, but the level of sales now is only a trickle. There is a definite indicator that the areas which have spiked last year are no longer the hot areas. Inventory of the market is high for this time of year and listings are coming in at record pace for January."
He predicts that Greater Vancouver could exceed the highest inventory on record which occurred in 2008. Those on the blog who track daily inventory and sales numbers report that the Greater Vancouver inventory total soared to over 12,000 listings last week.

While the month is only half over, Vancouver West detached sales are on a pace to see a 66% decline for the month of January. Vancouver's two closest suburbs are on track for an equally dismal performance: Richmond is on track for a 51% decline in detached home sales and Burnaby for a 59% decline.

It will be very interesting to watch the impact of all the negative stories in the mainstream media on the real estate market for the rest of the month.

There is no doubt, the swirling tides of change are brewing in the market.


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  1. It will be fascinating to watch the impact of all the negative tales in the mainstream media on the actual estate market for the remainder of the month.

    Community Association

  2. My best friend is telling me that Langley is up 1.8% over last year (FVREB numbers), so prices are still going up. When I point out that the prices in Langley were up 4.8% in July and have dropped 2.5% in the last six months(hence 1.8% up), he retorts that prices are still UP. Pass out the rose tinted glasses please.

  3. This is a rationalization we will see quite a bit in the coming months. Even if the market collapses 20%, the spin will be that 'overall' the market is still up compared to the last 5 years.

  4. what will be the impact on buyer psychology of all this bearish analysis? I mean... who wants to catch a falling knife, right?.... 0, nada, none, rienn! This the way in Canada to make money the government inflate real estate since 1998! do you think a little drop will make the buyers scared! Not a chance! Plus the poor still can have their cash down given back buy the banks, so, sadly, its far far from over. Plus iteres rate in the basement. Because the majority of the people think its normal so...Talk to you in 10 years.

  5. I think at some point this year you will have to change th title of this blog to "Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth From the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest"