Thursday, August 2, 2012

Vancouver Market in "Full Retreat"

For the past few years the central focus of the real estate market has been the all important "buyer confidence."

Hundreds of hours through press releases and millions of dollars have been spent by the Real Estate Industry on advertising, etc.  All to build up that crucial "buyer confidence."

And a crucial component of massaging that confidence has been the mainstream media (MSM).

While there have been countless articles this year about Housing Bubbles and the threat of a collapsing market, the person on the street has been somewhat oblivious to what is going on.

But this may well be the week in which Joe Q. Public truly begins to take notice of those negative real estate stories in the MSM.

I don't think anything can compare to the headlines that have come out in today's papers.

You can't ignore paper's like the National Post screaming "Vancouver real estate market in full retreat", it's a moniker that says it all:
Realtors are calling it a “summer lull,” but the latest statistics show Vancouver’s housing market is mired in a 10-year low for sales with no immediate end in sight.

Each month is starting to look worse than the previous one for Canada’s most expensive housing market as property sales in July dropped 11.2% from June — marking a decade low for activity.
The Industry can't hide the reality of the market any longer.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported the worst July since 2000, and 31.2% below the 10-year average for the month of 3,051 sales.

The board said there were 2,098 residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in July — off 18.4% from a year ago.
Things are getting so bad that Vancouver's average detached home price declined for five straight months now.

The average price is now down 15.7% from February's high of $1,235,244 to sit at $1,041,325 - a plunge of $193,919!

And as the August month kicks into high gear, sales are truly collapsing. Results today for all sectors of the market totalled only 49 sales!!

It's the first sub-50 sales day of the year.

If this keeps up for the rest of the month, July's numbers will look like a sales bonanza in comparison.

What were sales in July like?

Single Family Home sales in July 2011 vs July 2012:

Richmond: -51%
Jul/12 = 60 sales
Jul/11 = 123 sales

West Van: -47%
Jul/12 = 46 sales
Jul/11 = 86 sales

Coquitlam: -43%
Jul/12 = 67 sales
Jul/11 = 100 sales

Van West: -40%
Jul/12 = 83 sales
Jul/11 = 139 sales

Burnaby: -39%
Jul/12 = 58 sales
Jul/11 = 95 sales

North Van: -35%
Jul/12 = 60 sales
JUl/11 = 92 sales

East Van: -24%
Jul/12 = 109 sales
Jul/11 = 144 sales

(Hat Tip VMD)

Ugly doesn't begin to describe these numbers. As the Financial Post screamed, the market is in full retreat.

All that remains for the perfect storm is seller panic.

And the dog days of Summer may well provide the fuel to incite pandemonium.


Click 'comments' below to contribute to this post.

Please read disclaimer at bottom of blog.


  1. We've actually had a few sub 49 sales this year:

    Jan 3: 45
    Jan 5: 30
    Jan 9: 43
    Jan 12: 48
    Feb 1: 38

    Of course 49 sales in August with 19K inventory is a different thing than 49 sales in January wth 10K inventory!

    1. I stand corrected. Thanks for the excellent data.

  2. WoW, the numbers are SHOCKING!!! Thanks for the post! And this is just the beginning, too. Can't wait to see how this unfolds. I'm in Calgary and waiting to see if it will affect the market here as well.

  3. It looks just like a crash.