Monday, April 22, 2013

Listings slowing? Look at the overall inventory picture. The message is unmistakable.

When the total number of listings dropped in December, the real estate industry trumpeted that homeowners were pulling their houses off the market rather than cut their asking prices in a slowing market.

Proof, we were told, that buyers needed to buy now because prices weren't coming down.

Of course what the cartel press releases failed to mention was the fact that a large number of homeowners always pull their homes off the market over the holidays.  Who wants to deal with open houses at Christmas time?

They also failed to mention that total listings were in December/January were actually at record highs.

As the Spring market rolled around, the Industry chortled at how the pace of listings at slowed compared to previous years - more proof homeowners refused to bow to pressures to cut prices.

But while there have been far fewer 300+ listing days this Spring, the reality is that sales have plummeted.

So what does the overall all total inventory picture look like?

Again it is Larry Yatkowsky with a statistical snapshot that tells all.

Total listings in the lower mainland now exceed 25,092. This surpasses the previous highs for this time of year seen in 2011 [22,323] and 2012 [23,087].

Yatkowsky notes that this Inventory apex occurs at a time when sales reported by the various real estate boards are below 10 year averages.

It makes him wonder if:
the reality of the numbers... might be the “hint of the century”
For all but the most diehard, the message is unmistakable.


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  1. How far are Vancouver prices off highs now.. 20% max? How is everyone's gold and silver, and especially mining stocks doing?

  2. Good point. Commodity stocks have been hit exceptionally hard the last few weeks. Can you imagine the faces of those people who HELOCd their RE to play the markets?.. can you say "Double Indemnity", and we're not talking the title of a famous porno flick

  3. Or can you imagine the people who did not purchase a home because they are on the sidelines waiting for cheaper prices, and in the mean time invested in to go to 'housing haters' investments... precious metals?

  4. housing haters? sounds kinda dumb. Who would hate a house? it's like hating your Mother. I would suggest that people who like these forums are people who have a deep appreciation of the carnage of a deflationary economy. They can laugh at the house deflation and commodity deflation with equal glee and satisfaction that their investment strategy (frugal lifestyle) is correct.

    1. Frugal lifestyle? How about just living within your means- spending less than you earn and pay taxes on. If that counts as "frugal" then that really shows how buggered our society really is.

  5. Deflation looks like a high probability. We do not wish this event, we are just prepared for the possibility. This does not make us frugal or wish harm on people. We are just thinking independently. Are you?

  6. ok, truce. All I ask, is if you borrowed the dough pay it back in full with interest, like you agreed to. Pay back the student loan, in full. Pay back the HELOC, in full. Pay back the mortgage, in full. Pay back the credit card, in full. Pay back the Car loan, in full. PAY IT BACK, please.. and thank you. Remember you lived the great life on equity borrowed money, you traveled the World.... sipped wonderful wines.. and had gal-a popularity... but now it's time to PAY the PIPER. Can't pay it back? well, here's a rope, go find yourself a tree...

  7. You cant claim people reading this blog have an appreciation for deflation in housing and commodities when the links on the right side are to Kitco, USD, Peter Schiff, and ZeroHedge.

  8. Great post! Didn't know there are more listings out than last year. Very informative. Thanks