If we can agree that ‘summer’ is June, July and August and ‘fall’ is September, October and November, then for 8 of the last 9 years, summer has been busier than fall - in up and down markets.
Given that today’s market is widely considered to be slower than last year’s and buyers are much more hesitant than they have been in the past, coupled with the fact that many prospective buyers have yet to sell their home, I can easily suggest that fall will once again be slower than summer.
So Roy thinks sales will continue to suck. What about prices?
The real estate board has taken great pains to assure and calm the public that the Greater Vancouver real estate market is strong and stable - particularly after my last blog post received so much media attention suggesting that the current trend of high supply and low demand will lead to an adjustment of prices.
Unless someone can convince me otherwise, when it comes to short term pricing in the Vancouver market only two variables matter: Supply and Demand.
Since my last blog post, supply has remained relatively static and sales have been slower that at any time in the last 10 years (with the exception of the August prior to the 2008 crash).
As of September 16, 2012 there were 1014 homes for sale on the west side of Vancouver, down slightly from June’s 10 year high of 1078 available homes. After peak sales volume in February, sales in every month in 2012 have been lower than the month that preceded it reaching a low of only 75 home sales in August - 46% lower than the 10 year August average and 55 homes less than August 2011.
We are only hearing anecdotal evidence of a busy fall market with new listings popping up, buyers coming to open houses again and some houses selling in multiple offers. But the typical fall buzz has yet to be seen.
Many Realtors are struggling to get offers on listings. In hopes of prices declining or another home coming on the market, many buyers are reluctant to write offers.
September is not proving to be the saving grace many thought it would be.
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