Thurs Post #2: What is the real estate industry afraid of?

On Tuesday we linked to a post on the real estate discussion board Real Estate Talks, a site run by realtor Ozzie Jurock.

Jurock promotes the site in it's masthead as "a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects."

This week that site did not seem quite so "friendly".

Stunning screen shots had been posted there from the statistical data bank of Vancouver's real estate board revealing average and median prices for several neighbourhoods in the suburb of Richmond.

After being on RET for almost a full day, we linked to the post.  Later Garth Turner's site did as well.

Shortly after this, RET wiped the info clean.

The information was so stunning because it provided an intriguing glimpse behind the deceptive curtain of the HPI,  the MLSLink® Housing Price Index. 

Each month the HPI is trotted out by the local real estate boards as a measurement of how the market is doing. But while the Industry was telling us the HPI had declined in neighbourhoods likeTerra Nova by a mere -4.6%, the average sales price in the past year for that area was actually down by -38%, while the median price had crashed -50.4%.

Those are shocking numbers.

In the Riverdale area of Richmond, the data dump on RET showed the average price last month was down -27.5% and the median lower by 28%. In Seafair, the average price was down by -34% and the median by -25%. Compare this with the Industry's published HPI for Riverdale (-9%) and for Seafair (-15%).

How can the public not feel they are being deceived?

So what is the HPI anyway?

As Garth Turner noted last September:

Vancouver’s real estate board is the home of the original Frankenumber, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price, blatantly intended to smooth out peaks and valleys, giving the impression of an eternally stable market. 

Critics charge that Home Price Index is designed specifically so that it does not give an accurate view of current pricing or reflect market momentum – elements critical to an informed home-buying decision.

Instead it’s there to mask those swings, obfuscate reality and create an ‘it’s-always-a-good-time-to-buy’ mentality. 

The HPI, as a statistic, is ridiculed as existing to help realtors sell houses - not help citizens know when to buy them. As such it is so complex and convoluted that it takes the Industry 25 pages to explain how it is calculated.

Those screen shots which appeared on RET are significant because they show that the real estate industry clearly values keeping track of average and median prices.  They even track these stats neighbourhood by neighbourhood.

Why?

Because they represent critical elements crucial to informed home buying/selling decisions and even realtors find access to that data to be valuable and important.

But those stats are off limits to the buying public.  They are secret, for realtors only. Presumably that's why RET yanked them.

In the meantime, are the real estate boards on a witch hunt to find out who released the information?

More importantly, why restrict the data?  What motivates the Real Estate boards to keep this from you?

Is it because for almost a year now, Real Estate sales in Vancouver have been tanking despite Industry attempts to berate buyers who are waiting for the market to collapse. Meanwhile burgeoning inventory is hitting all time highs, despite Industry jawboning that sellers won't be putting their properties on the market unless buyers are prepared to pay market value.

These trends are followed by reports today that headline: "Nearly a quarter of Vancouver’s condos are empty", and suggestions about that our market is frothing from the excesses of a speculative frenzy.

Is information repressed as part of an attempt to protect asset prices? It certainly looks that way.

If buyers read that median prices were crashing by -50% in the newspapers and on TV, do you think buyers would be eager to make transactions?

Yesterday we issued a challenge to realtors to come forth and release average and median price data so that the public could balance the publication of the Home Price Index (HPI) with data which, while imperfect,  provides buyers with a more accurate view of current prices and market momentum.

For as Garth Turner notes:

The HPI is to houses what moving averages are to stocks. Instead of telling you what properties sell for now, it tells you what they averaged over time. Realtors love this since it filters out peaks and valleys, making markets seem serene and predictable. But the HPI is as useless to a serious buyer as a four-month-old stock quote is to a trader.

Ideally the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) and the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) will make it a part of their monthly statements.

In the meantime I'm happy to report that one Vancouver Realtor is accepting that challenge.

Realtor Larry Yatkowsky is out tonight with a post on his blog titled: Median prices of Vancouver Houses.

If kept in perspective Median Prices can be useful information to anyone considering the sale or purchase of a Vancouver property. As is normal practice I bring to my clients all statistical information possible when discussing the sale or purchase of their home. It is also my normal practice that if such graphical information is not readily available as a service from my board I will based on their data, build it. Such is the case with this Median graph. Additionally, in the past while commentators have expressed an interest in having a Median Price graph for Vancouver properties. It seemed appropriate to share this with them. I hope it will serve all well in your Vancouver home selling or purchase deliberation.

Does your real estate salesperson offer this service? If not, you might wish to consider giving me a call when life moves you.

Caution: In the graph below you will find a Median Price graph that includes Vancouver West, Vancouver East, West Vancouver and North Vancouver – the four communities within my service area. Remember that the Median Price is merely another statistical tool to help you make a Vancouver home buying or selling decision. It is a starting point.

Now... anyone care to tell us how much those median prices for February 2013 are +/- from January 2013?

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