Confirmation the rumours of banning 30-35 year mortgages true?

On Thursday we asked "Are 30 and 35 year mortgages about to be banned in Canada?", a question triggered by Garth Turner's reported inside information that federal Finance Minister Flaherty was about to implement this significant change.

This has caused quite the fervour in the real estate community, particularly given Turner's predictive track record.

The blog Canadian Mortgage Trends followed up on the rumour by contacting various banking sources. The Banks confirmed something was afoot. CMT then contacted the Department of Finance directly:

We've contacted the Department of Finance (DoF) for comment. Banking sources have confirmed reports of the DoF contemplating amortization guideline changes for conventional mortgages. But there's no confirmation on what, if any, moves will be made. Assuming the DoF acts on this issue, an alternative possibility is that conventional borrowers be made to qualify at a 25-year amortization, but still be allowed to set payments at a longer amortization.

CMT reports the Department of Finance responded:

"As a matter of course, the Department does not comment on what specific measures it may or may not be considering. However, we can confirm that no announcements from the Department of Finance related to uninsured mortgages are planned."

Given the indirect confirmation from banking sources, CMT ruminates:

Turner says the guidance would likely be sent directly from OSFI to the banks with less fanfare than a big public announcement. At least one bank we spoke with earlier is currently considering tightening conventional amortization rules. It's unclear if that is on the asking of OSFI or just an internal bank decision.

Clearly this unexpected turn of events has the real estate industry in a tither.

CMT speculates on the impact:

If true (with emphasis on the word "if"), this news could:

• Increase monthly payments on new conventional mortgages by about $53 per $100,000 of mortgage, other things being equal. 

• Potentially impact even smaller non-bank lenders (e.g., First National, Street Capital, MCAP,…). That’s because, as Turner adds:“Regulated financial institutions will also be prevented from buying any securities which are made up [of mortgages] with 30-year ams.” Virtually all non-deposit-taking lenders rely on securitization and/or selling mortgages directly to banks. 

• Make provincially-regulated credit unions the only game in town for amortizations over 25 years. That would provide credit unions who keep long-amortization mortgages on their balance sheets with another advantage versus the banks. CUs already sidestep federal mortgage rules by offering HELOCs above the federal 65% loan-to-value (LTV) maximum, higher LTV stated income mortgages and mortgages with lower qualification rates.

As noted, none of the above has been confirmed. So the above should be considered speculation until it is. We’ll do more digging and report back.

It could be an interesting week.

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