Sunday, January 4, 2009

The first 2009 salvo from the Pollyanna R/E Promoters

Ozzie Jurock is a Real Estate fixture in BC known for his weekly appearances on Global TV's noon news hour to discuss local real estate.

Self promoted as one of Canada's leading business motivators, his investor outlook conferences attract audiences of over 500 attendees. Jurock served as the past president of Royal LePage (Res.) in charge of over 7000 salespeople, the past chairman of NRS Block Bros. as well as managed real estate companies in Taiwan, Hongkong and Tokyo. He has served on the boards of the BC Real Estate Council, the Vancouver Real Estate Board, the UBC Real Estate Research Bureau and the Quality Council of BC among others.

In true salesman motivator fashion, he has issued his assessment of R/E for 2009. Here it is...


Will We Be Fine In 2009?

What a crazy year. What a mad 6 months, an outlandish September to October. Oil soaring to $147, then crashing to $37. Stocks on average down 45% or more, the whole world seemingly a’flame.

We keep saying that markets become the stories people tell about them. Until the year 2000 people talked around the water cooler, things - both scary and positive - stayed local. After 2000 the ‘talking’ changed. The Internet, Youtube, pod casts, blogs and all conspired to take our ‘market stories’ worldwide in an instant. Collectively we were able to feel euphoric, when we read good news and then collectively we were able to feel really scared - fast. BNNitis and CNNitis took over. We have a world cowering in fear - regurgitating endlessly the bad news … we fear auto downturns in Germany, coal miners striking in Brazil, oil sheiks needing 100 dollar a barrel to survive, British banks down. My god, Hong Kong is down, oh Africa is in a drought, oh, oh, oh, … and all that before we get to work. The negative comes easy and stays longer … and fear is more powerful than euphoria. The positive is neve r reported - worldwide - so is it any wonder that we collectively cower in fear. … when we should rejoice in that we are here in Canada today. I am telling you today - for myself:

Enough is enough!

We have to work on the positive. The fact remains that the best market remains between your own ears. We CAN be contrarian, we do NOT have to watch the ongoing barrage of bad news nor listen to people that have been wrong all year anyhow. It is a fact that stock markets historically returned within 2 years after collapses, it is a fact that your cash flow property still does - well - cash flow. Facts: That our shopping centres are full, that our unemployment rate stands at 5.4% and our huge capital investments and strong inward migration are for real. We KNOW, that we have come through some tough times before and that - in the end - it is how we feel ourselves that is the most important. Stop listening and worse stop REPEATING the negative stuff. In 2009, when someone asks: “How are you?” Say: “Wonderful”. It is the truth anyhow, we do live in paradise. When someone says how is y our business, say: “Great, never better!” Get positive. You attract what you think about.

In a world of “The Secret”, everyone professes to understand the “Law of attraction”, but few will act on the message. We understand, but we do not do. Or actually we talk negative - regurgitate the world’s calamities, we express little hope and we do not realize that the Law of Attraction is working! It gets you more of the same!


I assure you this 18th of December that those of us that look for the positive, that stretch towards the good … that reach for a better thought and reflect a positive strong attitude WILL attract a fantastic 2009. Don’t follow the negative crowd. Switch them off.

Get rid of negative people … Like attracts like … birds of a feather flock together. Stay with positive people … and if you feel depressed and can’t feel positive right away, well, don’t wallow, get mad … mad is better than depressed. Then after mad, you feel frustrated - good … that is better than being mad … and after frustrated there comes a shrug and a get into an ‘action feeling’. (It is a fact that 80% of what we worry about never happens anyway.) Then … a giggle … and after that the positive: “Yeah, I know that me and mine will have a wonderful future. To everyone that depends on me I will reflect a positive outlook.” Do it!

Major Point: So yes, it starts right here, right now. In your own mind. Here are some other facts:

1. Stock markets have crashed and recovered a dozen times … they always recovered … yet when in the collapse, there seemed no end in sight. This one will recover too. Good.

2. There will be great demand for real estate. Already in the US we have a huge increase in distressed sales. Once they are gone, market will continue to rise. Opportunity will make some rich. Good.

3. Oil and gas prices are down, putting about $7 billion in Canadian pockets next year. Good.

4. There will be a dozen deals of a lifetime. I.e. a 3-year-old $60,000 (lease return) American SUV will go for under $20,000. Good.

5. Food costs will be cheaper. Good.

6. The bad companies, the bad products, the overbuilt real estate condo areas will all continue to be cleared out or crash and burn. Good, they should.

7. As investors we will not so readily trust someone else to manage our money. We will do some learning and not get scammed as easily. Good.

8. Lousy securities and fad products will not be tolerated or trusted and will die. AAA ratings will be checked. Good.

9. More stock investors will come to real estate. Good.

10. 30-year money in the US and 5-year money in Canada will be around 4.5% next spring. Good.

You make your own list. Try this: Whenever someone talks about how bad the economy is, ask him or her how she is doing. 80% of the time, people tell me, that they themselves are actually doing quite well … but they hear someone is not or may not be in future.

Be a contrarian: Love your life, love your family, love your community, love your country … and in the process become more of a human being than a human doing.

Yes, 2009 will be fine.

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