Monday, March 5, 2012

Mon Post #3: Newsflash... it's "a stagnating housing market and in Vancouver prices are already falling from sky high levels a year ago"

The GVREB had been hard at work MOPE'ing the news (Management of Perspective Economics) and had downplayed the third worst February in real estate sales on record (a decline of -17.8% from February of 2011) into a "pre-spring hike" in sales.

This was achieved when the GVREB compared those very same abysmal February 2012 numbers to that of the absolutely horrendous January 2012 numbers... instead of comparing them to the results of February 2011.

As a result February's abysmal numbers were promoted as being 61.4% higher than the horrid January numbers... thus a "pre-spring hike".

So how embarrassing is it for the GVREB, after heralding an awesome February in real estate sales, to open up today's edition of Canadian Business Magazine?

Generally the article painted a rosy outlook for Canadian Real Estate nationally by the CREA...
"Risks to the Canadian economic outlook remain elevated owing to the European sovereign debt quagmire, but the continuation of low interest rates is the silver lining. So long as the European debt crisis is contained and a global economic recession avoided, low interest rates will support Canadian home sales and prices - CREA chief economist Gregory Klump"
But buried in the article were a couple of real gems.

First off our old friend, CIBC economist Benjamin Tal, tells us the new CREA forecast is "if anything a best case scenario forecast."


Then Tal goes on to say his bias leans more "toward an expectation of more significant price declines."

Oh really?

Tal expects further price declines and that these declines will MORE SIGNIFICANT than what we have already seen?

Pass the popcorn and tell us more!
"This is basically a stagnating housing market," Tal said. "This is not a housing market that is going to be on fire. This is a housing market that you'll see activity moderating and prices actually going down."
Seems Benny is reading from a different script than the GVREB this month. What about Vancouver?
"In Vancouver, prices are already falling from sky high levels a year ago, especially in the once bustling condominium market."
Now I ask you... when you read the GVREB's take on February's numbers, did you come away with the message that Vancouver's prices are already falling from sky high levels a year ago? Or that more, significant price declines are in our future?

Hmmm... didn't think so.


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  1. Great work exposing the spin. Thanks!

  2. I hope you can update more on the P.M,a soon. Garth and Buffet are not fans but it is good to see you still are.

  3. Gold is on sale today!