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Thursday, March 8, 2012

Real Estate Inventory


Inventory continues to build for real estate in the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest.

As you can see by the graph to the top right of the blog, the total for yesterday hit 15,305.

Inventory has increased each and every day of the year with the exception of February 29th. But even on that day, new listings outpaced sales 249 to 145. The reason total overall listings dropped that day was because a large number of listing contracts had expired at month's end.

The jump to 15,305 yesterday (+144) was the 3rd largest single day inventory increase this year. The daily average inventory increase over the last month has been 60 per day.

As noted by b5baxter in the comments section over at the blog Vancouver Condo Info, if the current pace of inventory increase is maintained we could reach 16,000 listings in approximately 11 days (March 19, 2012) and 20,000 listings in 78 days time (May 25, 2012).

That would double the total inventory available for sale at the start of the year.

Real Estate watchers are following this trend closely.

You have to wonder if we will see more speculator panic like we profiled yesterday if supply continues to outstrip demand.

Everyone seems to know a handful of people who are dabbling in the real estate speculation game.  Is it a stretch to imagine there are at least 1,000 hard core real estate speculators at work right now (with 4+ properties on the go) and another 2,000 with 1-3 properties in play?

Could it be that half the current inventory on the market is held by speculators?

It's my understanding that later today, Garth Turner's post (www.greaterfool.ca) will focus on how half of all sellers of Vancouver condos who purchased since 2008 are now selling at a loss.

With changes looming in the mortgage rules later this month, are we reaching a tipping point in the Vancouver market?

Will genuine panic grip even a small portion of all those speculators as they scramble to cut their losses?

Interesting times indeed.

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