Local Richmond realtor, Arnold Shuchat, is out with his latest market analysis and he declares the Vancouver market has turned. Now it's a seller's market:
If one wanted a weather vane to see where the real estate market winds are blowing, this would be as close to it as one could get. I designed the Seller's Delusion Index to track sellers' frustration over time, with the hypotheses being that the more expired and terminated listings there are as a ratio to sales, the greater the downward pressure on real estate prices. A seller has two options: cut his price or take it off the market. One results in a sale and the other a terminated listing.
As an historical measure, (Terminated + Expired listings) divided by number of sales in or about February of 2011 an accepted market high point, were running close to historic lows of about 27% depending on property type. At the worst recent time since then, they were running around 244%. That is akin to saying that when things are "hot" sellers had a 1 in 3 chance of being frustrated, whereas when things cooled down, they were 9 times more likely to be frustrated.
As one can see from the chart below, sellers' expectation are being more fully met now and the trend is leaning towards a seller's market once again. This table supercedes all previous ones as the sufficient time lapse following the months' end assures a more accurate set of numbers to allow for complete reporting of sales, terminated and expired listings.
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