Sunday, August 1, 2010

July Stats

Over the course of the month we have blogged about dramatic reductions in real estate prices in the Okanagan, and Bob Rennie bringing dramatic reductions to the Fairmont Estates condos in downtown Vancouver.

Next week the R/E sales numbers for the month of July will be released and they will not paint a pretty picture.

Over at the blog Vancouver Condo Info, contributors to the comments section have been bringing us some of the numbers. I invite you to persue the comments section for all their contributions.

If the data is accurate, final sales numbers for total unit sales are down 45% from July 2009. The total number of unit sales is the 2nd lowest in a decade.

Here are the total unit sales for the month of July since 1995:

July = UNITS
1995 = 1978
1996 = 2100
1997 = 2303
1998 = 1816
1999 = 2181
2000 = 1710
2001 = 2737
2002 = 2759
2003 = 4140
2004 = 3114
2005 = 3825
2006 = 2802
2007 = 3955
2008 = 2215
2009 = 4197
2010 = 2297

Meanwhile the story in new home sales is even more dramatic. New home sales in July 2010 compared to July 2009 are down an astonishing 70%. The total number of new home sales for July 2010 is the lowest since 1995.

1995 = 296
1996 = 442
1997 = 350
1998 = 311
1999 = 298
2000 = 205
2001 = 288
2002 = 221
2003 = 488
2004 = 343
2005 = 724
2006 = 445
2007 = 503
2008 = 215
2009 = 441
2010 = 129

Earlier this month we profiled how the benchmark price on the west side of the City of Vancouver had dropped a dramatic $91,000 in the month of June.

Well the west side continues to get hammered.

According to figures supplied by real estate agent Larry Yatkowsky:

  • Median price on the west side is down 8.6% in July (and almost 13% in the last 2 months),
  • Average price is down 12.7% in July alone,
  • Sales are down 60% from June,
  • And price reductions have been 4 times greater than sales.

Mr. Yatokowsky offered the following comments on the current real estate market;

"The predominant factor is the slow drop in the number of listings combined with continuing price reductions. Prices appear to be dropping steadily and the number of listing mandates that are failing to sell are increasing. How many ‘failed to sell’ listings will we see in the weeks ahead – the numbers are climbing? How many come back to market to ‘try again’?

A great number of sellers still want to sell but buyers are reticent to jump in – they remain uncertain except for one thing – just are not ready to pay the prices sellers are asking. What is known is that the stronger hand being played by buyers is currently winning. Until sales begin to increase we can expect this state of market to continue. In the days and weeks ahead is that sellers will be forced to make further and substantial price adjustments before that happens."

And so it goes...



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  1. Whisperer, it's very interesting to see what Bob Rennie is doing to prices. I'd like to think that, while he would never admit it publicly, he's avidly and religiously reading blogs like this one and finally figured out the jig is up.

    But it could also be he's marketing for people who need cash pronto and in this market the only way you get that is to slash prices.

  2. Hello Jesse;

    I agree with you on Rennie. Ultimately he is a marketer, a salesman promoting the market and it's customers (both developers and buyers) for his own ends: as a means to make money.

    And there's nothing wrong with that.

    Anyone who is successful and dominant in their field draws their share of detractors. Some of the complaints are unfounded. Some are justified.

    We blog to inform. In our case, about real estate.

    Fortunate to understand the longer view of the ebb, flow and patterns of what is happening to real estate, many bloggers have been frustrated by the effective manipulations of the R/E sales pitch; the abrogation of responsibility by mainstream media who pimp the R/E marketing mantra under the guise of 'news'; and the public who flock like lemmings to the message - ignorant of the looming financial disaster that awaits them as conditions 'unwind'.

    Rennie, responding as he did a few years back to VHB, has admitted publically that he reads the blogs.

    That alone serves as validation that the blogs are fulfilling their purpose: informing people; countering the R/E PR spin.

    It's something you, VHB, Pope, Fish et al should be proud of.

    For Rennie, the jig is never up. The market is changing and so is he. There will never be any public acknowledgement of your prescience.

    In years past, Rennie's comments and actions were all part of managing and promoting the market. And part of that managing was minimilizing the naysayers.

    That has been taken as far as it will go.

    The market is fundamentally changing. And Rennie is a bellwether. You are correct in that he in now marketing for people with different needs: those who either need cash or who need to liquidate inventory and minimize loss.

    For Rennie, it's opportunity. He gets paid commission to sell.

    For the blogosphere, it's further affirmation that events will play out as we have predicted.

    Unfortunately there will never be any magical 'Christmas Carol' conversion from Rennie.

    At best all you will see a 'shift in marketing strategy' that services the new needs of those developers in the market (which will become liquidation).

    Like a crafty politician, Rennie's message will change to tailor the oonditions - without regret or remorse.

    At least we won't have to listen to that 2010 in 2010 spiel anymore.

  3. The sales numbers for this month are just stunning. Great post.