Friday, July 27, 2012

Fri Post #2: Post July 9th Real Estate Sales are falling off a cliff.

So yesterday was another intriguing day for real estate sales statistics.

The entire Lower Mainland only produced 94 sales. In Greater Vancouver that number was a stunningly low 59 sales.

Incredibly 19 of those 59 sales were executed pre-July 9th, part of the glut of activity in the rush to meet the new mortgage rule deadline (and thus caught up in a backlog of CMHC approval).

Only 40 of those sales were post-July 9th. (hat tip zrh2yvr).

The bottom line is that post-July 9th sales have been amazingly weak.

Year to date West Vancouver sales are trending to be down 48.7% from the first 7 months of last year. Richmond is trending to be down 46.2%. And the west side of Vancouver is trending to be down 41.1%

The weak daily numbers lately have us on track to have the worse July in over 11 years, even worse than July 2008.

Can you imagine what those numbers will be if the post-July 9th trend continues for the rest of the year?


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  1. Reggie Middleton is getting in on it. Subscribers can learn how to short Vancouver / To RE now.

    RE... responsible for worldwide credit expansion... in turn destruction of the ecology. RE will be the death of us all.

  2. On a completely unrelated note, 5 year mortgage rates are sub-3%. Don't think lenders will take this sitting down.

    1. Agreed. I antiicipate some very aggressive actions over the next couple of months from campaigns telling us prices won't go down here to all kinds of stories relating how 'smart,young buyers' are getting into the market NOW!

    2. I think that's being driven by the bond yields primarily rather than a marketing plan. A five year arm (closest comparable to a 5 yr lock in canada) is going around 2.625% now and a 30 yr fixed rate can be had for around 3.25% give or take. It's truly unbelievable.