Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Tues Post #2: Total Vancouver Inventory drops 812 listings


Did the market stumble today?

Total inventory dropped dramatically. And despite 300 new listings today, we still ended up with a net decrease of -812 from our total inventory.

Is the market turning around?

The fact of the matter is there were still 188 more listings than sales. The Vancouver market continued it's trend wherein every single day this year we have seen more listings than sales.

So why the big drop?

If you look back at the way inventory ballooned in Feb/March, it should not be so surprising that as the first of the month arrives, massive numbers of listings are expiring.

And because of all those expirations, the first business day of July will post the smallest month-to-month gain we have seen yet this year.

So now the big question.

Will all those seller's who didn't realist today survey the market and hold off on re-listing until fall - after the summer sales slump? 

Or will they see the shifting sands and put their homes back on the market within a couple of days?

Over the next few days we will hear press reports about just how bad June's sales data is.

As noted over on Vancouver Condo Info today, detached home sales in some areas were the worst in 15 years.

Here is the data from Richmond compared to the last 17 years

1995 = 112
1996 = 114
1997 = 144
1998 = 105
1999 = 135
2000 = 128
2001 = 160
2002 = 139
2003 = 166
2004 = 147
2005 = 248
2006 = 170
2007 = 198
2008 = 115
2009 = 204
2010 = 139
2011 = 158
2012 = 73 **June 28

From the West Side of Vancouver

995 = 108
1996 = 133
1997 = 140
1998 = 126
1999 = 152
2000 = 125
2001 = 189
2002 = 150
2003 = 180
2004 = 154
2005 = 185
2006 = 181
2007 = 177
2008 = 108
2009 = 200
2010 = 147
2011 = 213
2012 = 99 **June 28

And from the East Side of Vancouver

1995 = 145
1996 = 175
1997 = 185
1998 = 136
1999 = 233
2000 = 185
2001 = 269
2002 = 203
2003 = 282
2004 = 243
2005 = 303
2006 = 396
2007 = 244
2008 = 139
2009 = 238
2010 = 145
2011 = 180
2012 = 107 ***June 29

(hat tip Inventory for the figures)

Sales have been the lowest in 17 years.

So as you can see, seller's have a giant dilemma facing them.

Pull their homes off the market or realist?

July/August should be interesting months as we watch the market unfold.

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3 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 4, 2012 at 1:39 AM

    I expect to see a lull in activity. Realtors will be discouraging listing activity in order to keep supply low. No big surprise. We all watch the same numbers and they want prices to be stable (actually, we all want price stability so lets not get too upset if listings fall)

    But that won't help anyone. In the big picture nothing changes except some get out before the correction while others wait and lose.

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    1. AnonymousJuly 4, 2012 at 10:41 AM

      Uhm, that's nonsense. Realtors don't make any money when nothing's selling... so what possible reason would they have to "discourage listings activity?"

      Delete
  2. AnonymousJuly 4, 2012 at 10:27 AM

    If you gotta sell, you gotta sell. The question is, how many of those listings (and how many more) are "dedicated sellers" who will sell over the next few years.

    Future buyers can simply rent. Future sellers can HELOC and refinance to access cash, although that is being constrained.

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