Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Inventory: Is this year's increase weaker than we saw in 2012?

A quick post about inventory tonight.

Some have expressed concern, since there have been no +300 total listings days yet this year, that inventory this January will not grow like it did in 2012 when we saw a huge spike of 2,727 active listings for the month.

But I'm not so sure that is the case.

Sales this year appear to be lower than in 2012. We have had 9 sales days since the first sales of of 2013 and in that time, while new listings are lower than 2012, total active inventory are increasing at a fair clip because of those low sales. 

So far inventory is up 1,172.  That's an average increase over those 9 days of 130 per day.  There are 12 sales days left in the month. If that +130 per day increase continues, that's an additional 1,560 listings by month's end.

That would give us an increase for January of 2,732... bringing January 2013 right on par with January 2012.

And considering we started this year with over 1,000 more active listings than 2013, we would go into February with over 14,500 listings on the market.


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  1. Exactly.

    People, watch daily sales too! It's not just all about new listings. If nobody is buying those listings, inventory stacks up.

    Also, if sales are slow, the whole industry is suffering badly.
    No sales= no commissions, no income.

  2. Also, re: HAM factor, the chinese new year dates as follow:


    So, this year's CNY is more than 2 weeks "delayed" vs last year's.

  3. 7 day average sales compared to inventory shows MOI of 9.3 last January 16 and 12.5 this January 16. A 35% increase in MOI

    MOI at end of January last year was 6.4 and this year we're projected to still be in double digits at the end of the month.

    An Observer

  4. Hearing rumors....tons of HAM coming to Vancouver during Chinese New Years. All flights are full. You can bet some money is coming as well