Saturday, May 7, 2011

April Real Estate Numbers

Last week we mentioned how we expected the April Real Estate statistics would continue to show that Vancouver proper R/E would remain hot, but that the larger periphery around the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest is NOT selling at all.

And that is the case.

Above (click on image to enlarge) are the statistics for Vancouver in a chart from realtor Larry Yatkowsky. The Euphoric Stage of the bubble is playing out in almost perfect chart form now and the climb is almost breathtaking.

But while Vancouver proper ramps up in it's combustible intense heat, the  periphery continues to languish.

The Fraser Valley has stalled. It would be polite to only say that sales and prices are flat. From the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board:
  • "The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,516 property sales on its Multiple Listing Service in April, a decrease of 15% compared to 1,793 sold during April of last year, and a decrease of 17% compared to March’s 1,818 sales."
Across the water, our Province's capital city is a 'washout' according to the City's main daily newspaper. Victoria had it's lowest April R/E sales totals in over a decade.

Meanwhile in the Okanagan region of the Province, the sales to listings percentage is sitting at 5-8%.  When you have a 5% sales/list ratio it means there is almost two years of inventory waiting to be sold.

A complete list of the BC region can be seen here.

They say a 'watched pot never boils' and for many of the local R/E bubble watchers, the playing out of the Vancouver Housing Bubble has been agonizingly slow. The bubble watchers all know that the fundamentals point to a bubble, they all know values have out-stripped local incomes, and they all know all the signs of an imminent bubble collapse are there.

And now conditions are, in fact, unwinding.

Do a google search of the term "real estate bubble the periphery collapses first"  and you get link after link detailing how this is one of the warning signs of a collapsing property bubble.

Do not revel in this.  The pain we will feel in the years ahead will be significant. Even those who have been wise enough to protect their equity gains, even those who have avoided the 'debt trap' by not succumbing to the buying pressure; all will be significantly impacted by the collapse.

Perhaps the only good thing is that, in recent months, the warnings have been well publicized by the mainstream media as well as the blogosphere.

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  1. looks exactly like the chart of silver

  2. The Vancouver market is now almost totally being driven by LM Chinese. The few locals who are buying at this time will be slaughtered, as will all buyers getting in now.