March 2012 was an interesting month for our real estate bubble here on the Wet Coast.
With another go at the lowest interest rates in history, there were some expectations that the second half of March might see a resurgent rise in sales to rescue what was shaping up to dismal month.
And in some ways there was. Sales did rise, but not enough to do anything but put lipstick on a pig of a month.
Total sales for March came in at 2,934 units sold and total listings surged in March by 1,386 and total inventory now sits at 16,298 (up from 10,671 at the start of the year).
This is a historic high Inventory level for the month of March.
This is a historic high Inventory level for the month of March.
The sales totals are 28% below what were recorded in March 2011. This is the second lowest total in 10 years (2009 was the worst with 2,265).
Meanwhile early updates from West Vancouver, courtesy of Larry Yatkowsky (and hat tip to Makaya), show that West Vancouver had a horrible month.
Homes in the HAM (Hot Asian Money) hotbed on the North Shore have their average price down 7.9% and the median price down 13.6%... in only one month.
March now joins January and February as horrid months for R/E sales in the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest.
Will the Spring Market be a no-show this year?
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I think it is safe to say that the top was put in months ago. I think it will be a long, slow (at times fast) grind downward. The gravitational pull that Van RE has resisted for oh so long has finally taken hold with fury.
ReplyDeleteLook out below!
This is one of the first real estate blogs I look at and one of the best in my opinion. It would be nice if more people commented.
ReplyDeleteI have nothing much to say that hasn't been said before but for a long time I have watched, with disbelief, at the exponential rise of home prices over the last decade.
Fundamentals do matter and I think we will be reverting back to historical norms before too long. This has been said many times by many people.In a nutshell, it is not different this time and it's not different here.
In terms of incomes we are not that different than our American friends in Seattle and as a city Seattle has at least as much to offer as Vancouver.
At the moment I am looking an mls.ca map of greater Vancouver with a maximum price for a detached home of $500,000. In the whole of Vancouver, West and North Vancouver, Richmond, and Burnaby, there is not a single listing.(unless you like your house floating on the Fraser)
In Seattle, with the same $500,000 max, there are hundreds of listings of detached homes. And many nice ones, I might add.
I think I read somewhere that Seattle prices were down about 30% from the peak. It doesn't seem unreasonable that, as a minimum, that will be our fate as well.