Fri Post #3:Bloomberg reports the obvious. Says Gold Price "Manipulated For A Decade", repeatedly slammed lower.

Bloomberg is out with a story headlined "Gold Fix Study Shows Signs of Decade of Bank Manipulation" and confirms what many have long suspected about Gold and Silver manipulation in the market.

The London gold fix, the benchmark used by miners, jewelers and central banks to value the metal, may have been manipulated for a decade by the banks setting it, researchers say…

“The structure of the benchmark is certainly conducive to collusion and manipulation, and the empirical data are consistent with price artificiality,” they say in the report, which hasn’t yet been submitted for publication. “It is likely that co-operation between participants may be occurring.”

The paper is the first to raise the possibility that the five banks overseeing the century-old rate -- Barclays Plc, Deutsche Bank AG, Bank of Nova Scotia, HSBC Holdings Plc and Societe Generale SA -- may have been actively working together to manipulate the benchmark. It also adds to pressure on the firms to overhaul the way the rate is calculated. Authorities around the world, already investigating the manipulation of benchmarks from interest rates to foreign exchange, are examining the $20 trillion gold market for signs of wrongdoing.

The report identified patterns that are suspicious in the extreme. And with the revelations about fixing in other markets, such as Libor, have all but confirmed that the market is being blatantly manipulated in the minds of many investors

Abrantes-Metz and Metz screened intraday trading in the spot gold market from 2001 to 2013 for sudden, unexplained moves that may indicate illegal behavior. From 2004, they observed frequent spikes in spot gold prices during the afternoon call. The moves weren’t replicated during the morning call and hadn’t happened before 2004, they found.

Large price moves during the afternoon call were also overwhelmingly in the same direction: down. On days when the authors identified large price moves during the fix, they were downwards at least two-thirds of the time in six different years between 2004 and 2013. In 2010, large moves during the fix were negative 92 percent of the time, the authors found.

There’s no obvious explanation as to why the patterns began in 2004, why they were more prevalent in the afternoon fixing, and why price moves tended to be downwards, Abrantes-Metz said in a telephone interview this week.

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Fri Post #2: CMHC Announcement - Much Ado About Very Little?

So the big CMHC announcement, which had the real estate industry all a tither, was made this morning and the result was a bit of a yawner.

As we speculated yesterday, it was all about CMHC premiums.

Starting in May Canada's national housing agency has increased the amount of money that homeowners with less than 20% down payments must pay to insure their mortgages.

On 95% Loan to Value mortgages the standard premium rises from 2.75% to 3.15%. Under the old system, that borrower would pay an insurance premium of $6,875 for a $250,000 mortgage. Under the new system, their premium would jump by $1,000 to 7,875. On a typical 25-year mortgage at 3.49 per cent, that person would be paying $4.98 more on their mortgage payment, every month, to pay down the fee.

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Fri Post #1: More West Coast Fukushima radiation stories in the news

More on the Fukushima radiation story hitting Vancouver and the North American west coast as the topic hits mainstream media.

You will recall we posted two days ago about the approaching plume of radiation in the ocean from the disaster at the Fukushima Nuclear Plant.

We also referenced an NBC story about how something is killing all the starfish all up and down the west coast of North America.

In another disturbing development is this news story telling us something is also killing off all the oysters and scallops off the BC coast: Mystery surrounds massive die-off of oysters and scallops off B.C. coast:

Something is killing oysters and scallops in dramatic numbers, causing suppliers to warn of shortages and producers to worry about the future of their businesses. The cause is unknown, but ocean acidification is the main suspect.

"The water is clean… we haven’t had any environmental concerns, so I’m not sure what’s going on,” said Mr. Perrault, who owns Little Wing Oysters and is president of the BC Shellfish Grower’s Association.

Yesterday we told you about the respected Scientific American Magazine  which had just published an article titled "Radioactive Isotopes from Fukushima Meltdown Detected near Vancouver"

On another front, News1130 ran a story asking: How much radiation testing is being done in BC? - Doctors maintain there is no threat to British Columbians:

VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – Experts continue to insist we’re under no threat, despite low-level radiation from Japan being found off the BC Coast in recent months.

Radiation from Japan’s Fukushima plant meltdown three years ago has reached our offshore waters, according to the Bedford Institute of Oceanography in Nova Scotia.

Provincial Health officer Dr. Perry Kendall is among those saying it’s nothing to worry about. “All of the experts that I’ve consulted with both in Canada and in the US say there is no concern.

While Jay Ritchilin of the David Suzuki Foundation agrees there is no immediate concern, he says government monitoring remains minimal.

“A proactive government response with active monitoring, regular communication, some education about what various levels of radiation do and don’t mean, just seems to me to be something you would expect a government to do,” he tells us.

Ritchilin adds most of the research comes from independent groups.

CBC picked up on the radiation testing theme and published this piece: Fukushima radiation on B.C. coast measured by crowdsourcing - Scientists from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution recruite 'citizen scientists' to collect data. The most stunning part is that an American Oceanographic Institute is calling on civilians to do water testing because government isn't:

People along the British Columbia coast are being asked to step in where governments in Canada and the U.S. have not — to measure radiation from Japan's crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in B.C.'s ocean waters.

Scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Mass., are calling on the public to collect data from B.C.'s oceans for a crowd-funded research project.

The website ourradioactiveocean.org is recruiting "citizen scientists," ordinary people who can raise $600 for a home testing kit and then take water samples to return to Woods Hole for analysis.

"I think it's important to get measurements, and since the governments aren't doing it, we thought the public has a large concern we'd ask them help collect and fund the sampling," said Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute researcher Ken Buesseler.

Although it has been urged, Buesseler says there is incomplete monitoring, and little data, for radiation in Pacific coastal waters from either Canadian or American authorities.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada have taken measurements along the coast up to 1500 km west of Vancouver for cesium 134.

Isotopes from the meltdown three years ago were predicted by some to reach North America this year.

"There's a great alarm, when you don't know. People can speculate all kinds of things," said Buesseler.

Early results appear to be good news.

Eight samples are already in, exclusively showing isotopes from natural sources, or nuclear weapons testing from decades ago.

"But we think it's important to monitor that so people have some confidence that the waters are safe," Buesseler said.

He said from the available models and data, levels of Cesium-134 are well below levels considered safe to drink. Scientists do not believe radiation from Fukushima will cross the ocean in anything more than trace amounts.

He said the institute decided to fill the gap in information because dire warnings online of the potential impact of radiation from Fukushima was generating too much public fear, without any data to base it on.

As always, we'll keep an eye out for more news on this issue.

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Thurs Post #2: So what's the speculation on CMHC's announcement tomorrow?

Scanning the web, the blogosphere is all a twitter about the CMHC news conference tomorrow but there seems to be very little concrete info about what's coming.

Even Garth Turner, who normally seems to have connections with upcoming announcements, is reduced to mere speculation.

So what will Evan Siddall, CMHC's new CEO, have in store for Canadians tomorrow?

The Globe and Mail reported in December that there has been pressure on CMHC to raise its premiums and many believe this is what the big presser is about. CMHC has not raised its premiums since the late 1990s, and actually lowered them between 2003 and 2005.

While premiums are technically paid by the lenders, the cost is passed along to borrowers, so any increase will be felt by borrowers. 

Premiums vary depending on the size of the down payment and are calculated as a percentage of the mortgage. The smaller the down payment, the higher the premium. For example, the standard premium is 1% for a mortgage with a loan-to-value ratio of 80%, and 2.75 percent for a mortgage with a loan-to-value ratio of 95%.

CMHC has two private-sector rivals: Genworth MI Canada Inc., and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Co. Industry sources say the private-sector players have been reluctant to raise prices on their own, for fear of losing business, but they have told the federal government that they would like to see CMHC raise its premiums.

The private-sector players argue that higher premiums are overdue because mortgage insurers have been required to bolster the amount of capital that they set aside in recent years, and flat prices coupled with higher capital requirements have put pressure on profit growth.

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Thursday Post #1: Scientific American Magazine - "Radioactive Isotopes from Fukushima Meltdown Detected near Vancouver"

Following up on yesterday's post, we note that Scientific American Magazine published an article on Feb. 25th, 2014 titled  "Radioactive Isotopes from Fukushima Meltdown Detected near Vancouver"

The subheading stresses that "the levels of radiation detected are well below the safety limit for drinking water". 

Radiation from Japan's leaking Fukushima nuclear power plant has reached waters offshore Canada, researchers said today at the annual American Geophysical Union's Ocean Sciences Meeting in Honolulu.

Two radioactive cesium isotopes, cesium-134 and cesium-137, have been detected offshore of Vancouver, British Columbia, researchers said at a news conference. The detected concentrations are much lower than the Canadian safety limit for cesium levels in drinking water, said John Smith, a research scientist at Canada's Bedford Institute of Oceanography in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia.

Tests conducted at U.S. beaches indicate that Fukushima radioactivity has not yet reached Washington, California or Hawaii, said Ken Buesseler, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Woods Hole, Mass.

"We have results from eight locations, and they all have cesium-137, but no cesium-134 yet," Buesseler said. (Isotopes are atoms of the same element that have different numbers of neutrons in their nuclei. In this case, cesium-137 has more neutrons than cesium-134.)

The scientists are tracking a radioactive plume from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Three nuclear reactors at the power plant melted down after the March 11, 2011, Tohoku earthquake. The meltdown was triggered by the massive tsunami that followed the quake.

The initial nuclear accident from the Fukushima reactors released several radioactive isotopes, such as iodine-131, cesium-134 and cesium-137. Cesium-137 has a half-life of 30 years and remains in the environment for decades. Cesium-134, with a half-life of only two years, is an unequivocal marker of Fukushima ocean contamination, Smith said.

"The only cesium-134 in the North Pacific is there from Fukushima," he said. Cesium-137, on the other hand, is also present from nuclear weapons tests and discharge from nuclear power plants.

Smith and his colleagues tracked rising levels of cesium-134 at several ocean monitoring stations west of Vancouver in the North Pacific beginning in 2011. By June 2013, the concentration reached 0.9 Becquerels per cubic meter, Smith said. All of the cesium-134 was concentrated in the upper 325 feet (100 m) of the ocean, he said. They are awaiting results from a February 2014 sampling trip.

The U.S. safety limit for cesium levels in drinking water is about 28 Becquerels, the number of radioactive decay events per second, per gallon (or 7,400 Becquerels per cubic meter). For comparison, uncontaminated seawater contains only a few Becquerels per cubic meter of cesium.

Cesium-137 levels at U.S. beaches were 1.3 to 1.7 Becquerels per cubic meter, Buesseler said. That's similar to background levels in the ocean from nuclear weapons testing, suggesting the Fukushima plume has not reached the U.S. coastline yet, he said.

The new monitoring data does not show which of two competing models best predicts the future concentration of Fukushima radiation along the U.S. West Coast, Smith said. These models suggest that radionuclides from Fukushima will begin to arrive on the West Coast in early 2014 and peak in 2016. However, the models differ in their predictions of the peak concentration of cesium — from a low of 2 to a maximum of 27 Becquerels per cubic meter. Both peaks are well below the highest level recorded in the Baltic Sea after Chernobyl, which was 1,000 Becquerels per cubic meter.

"It's still a little too early to know which one is correct," Smith said.

Fukushima’s radiation reached coastal Canada first because of the powerful Kuroshio Current, which flows from Japan across the Pacific. The plume will then flow down the coast of North America and circle back toward Hawaii, models predict.

The impending arrival of radioactive contaminants from Fukushima has raised concerns among coastal residents in the United States and Canada. But oceanographers and radiation experts say the radiation levels will be too low to threaten human health.

"These levels are clearly not a human or biological threat in Canada," Smith said.

But Buesseler thinks even low levels of contamination merit monitoring, both for human health information and for the wealth of data about Pacific Ocean currents such monitoring could provide. On Jan. 14, he launched a website called "How Radioactive is Our Ocean?", where the public can make tax-deductible donations to support the analysis of existing water samples, or propose and fund new sampling locations along the West Coast.

And at Fukushima, radioactive water continues to escape from the damaged power plant into the ocean. A new leak was reported last week, although that one did not empty into the ocean.

As mentioned yesterday, we will continue to follow this story and update with items of interest.

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Wed Post #2: More Mortgage Changes from CMHC on Friday? - Updated

Are there more, significant changes coming our way from CMHC this friday?

The website Mortgage Trends posted today that CMHC has advised reporters that will be making an announcement Friday at 11:00 A.M. EST.

What's interesting is that they’ve notified reporters well in advance, which apparently is somewhat unusual. So unusual, in fact, that it has many speculating that it will be a major announcement. Some suggest CMHC will be increasing the down payment required for CMHC for insured mortgages from the current 5% to back to 10%.

Reuters, however, ran a story on Feb 24th, 2014 which noted Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said there were no imminent plans to intervene in the mortgage market:

In the interview, Flaherty indicated he is not overly concerned about the state of the housing market and said, as expected, there are no imminent plans to intervene in the mortgage market to curb lending after having done so four times already since 2008. But he said it would be "unwise" to rule it out as a tool in the future… For now, the minister is focused on increasing scrutiny of the mortgage insurance business of the federal housing agency, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), and encouraging the growth of private mortgage insurers.

This real estate blog offers their opinion on what the changes might entail:

Option 1 – Some Form of Privatization? This would be big news and create great political fodder, if this was part of the announcement would likely be under taken by a partial break up of sectors with some remaining core functions of the crown corporation. Australia took a similar approach with success.

The recent budget included the statement “The Government continues to adjust the housing finance framework to restrain the growth of taxpayer-backed mortgage insurance and securitization,” which have also been a running theme to statements made by the Finance Minister. Reducing future taxpayer burden is clearly part of the agenda,.So the question that begs here, is what step could they take to reduce taxpayer risk, which leads to our Speculation Options 2 and 3:

Speculation Option 2 – A change to the down-payment requirements: A return to 10% down-payment structure, eliminating the 5% down option.

Speculation Option 3 – A reduction in the amount of insurance protection offered: Will it be less geared to impact the end consumers of mortgages and more to the banks in as much that the reduction will be in the security provided to the bank through CMHC reducing the risk from 100% of loan value to a similar percentage that the likes of Genworth and AIG now see at 90% of loan value. This would also even up the competitive playing field putting CMHC Insurance on par with Genworth and AIG.

My money is on Speculation Option 3 and here is why. It doesn’t impact the end consumers which would for lack of better words tick off a lot of potential home buyers (voters), have a big impact on the market (from construction to industry professionals). It would also be a step towards privatization, just like the Receiver General Fee structure implemented within the budget…is that not the trend here?

At the end of the day we only speculate and will await with anticipation what this major player in the real estate insurance market has to say this Friday!

We shall see on Friday.

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Wed Post #1: Fukushima’s radiation is approaching the West Coast

Yet another reason for offshore money not to be invested in Vancouver real estate comes with the latest scare about nuclear radiation.

In case you missed it yesterday, Bloomberg is reporting that radiation from the Tsunami damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan has been "significantly undercounted." Of particular concern for us on the Wet Coast is that the radioactive plum of water from the damaged reactor will be hitting our shores, possibly as soon as April.

How dangerous is that plume (shown above in a computer generator model)?

At the moment, no one is sure.

So far only minute traces of radiation have been recorded in British Columbia waters. This will increase as contaminants disperse eastwards on Pacific currents. But scientists are quick to stress that even the peak measurements will be well within the limits set by safety authorities.

Notwithstanding those assurances, serious concerns are being raised and alarms bells are sounding in the eco system.

Back in December 2013, NBC reported on a mass dying of starfish on the West Coast. As NBC noted, "starfish are dying in record numbers."

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From the news clip:

Brian Williams, anchor: Environmental officials in California say there’s been another highly troubling report about what’s going on in the Pacific. Something is killing the starfish and they don’t know why. They have been dying in record numbers on the West Coast. [...] 

Pete Raimondi, marine biologist: It’s happened so rapidly that some species are just missing. [...] 

Miguel Almaguer, reporter: An epidemic affecting waters from Alaska to Southern California causing millions of starfish to fall apart and melt away. [...] Two species that used to thrive here have now vanished. [...] 

Raimondi: I’ve had probably 100 emails thus far saying, ‘Well, what about Fukushima, because of radiation?’ We haven’t ruled that out yet, but we’re clearly not ruling that in. 

Almaguer: The mysterious disease has now spread to at least 10 species of starfish and is threatening more every day.

On KRCB, Raimondi was interviewed on Nov. 21, 2013 and said:

There’s something about this outbreak that is very, very different [...] It’s always been associated with warm water in the past — an El Nino event. We’re not in an El Nino event. [...] There’s 2 things that are really bewildering. One, we aren’t in an El Nino event. The second thing is the spatial thing, from Alaska down to Orange County. It’s hard to think of a mechanism that is consistent across that whole area of geography.

Something is killing off our Starfish.  Is it the nuclear radiation from Fukushima? Or is it simply a coincidence?

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Did MacLean's admit they were wrong?

As the Sochi Olympics come to end, Vancouver finds itself bathed in snow.  Four years ago we were, like Sochi, wearing shorts and T-shirts at this time of year. Maybe we are a winter city after all?

As we turn our attention back to all matter financial and real estate, we couldn't help but notice our blog being mentioned over on Alphabet Arnie's site.

AA headlines MacLeans Admits it has been wrong?!! and he writes:

Some time ago, around early 2012 when MacLeans magazine produced an issue with a cover story featuring a skyscraper and a house on fire as if the market WAS GOING to collapse, I lambasted them in one of our local blogs, where extracts of the article were reproduced. (see Whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.com). Anyways, I was trolling another local site "vancouvercondo.info when I came across this extract (in or about Jan 21, 2014), from a MacLeans reporter addressing negative market chit chat warning of a market collapse. I must say, I really relished reading this extract:

"This is a well worn theme for many Canadian reporters. Here at Maclean’s we’ve reached the same conclusion several times going back to 2008, and, admittedly, we’ve been proven fully and completely wrong."

In promoting the column on his site, AA even sent out this tweet asking others to retweet "to help inform."

Not that we wish to pour ketchup on his 'relish' or his desire to 'inform' but we think Arnie may have his timelines a little bit off.

AA believes Macleans is repudiating their 2012 cover story with that extract quote.

Umm… hate to break it to you Arnie, but the MacLean's extract is actually a quote from an article published on June 1, 2011. Far from repudiating the 2012 cover story, the extract was written almost a year before the cover story was even published (click on image to enlarge and see blue hilighted text):

Not sure they have actually admitted they were wrong about their 2012 cover story yet.

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Sun Post #2: Instead of a Loonie, was this Team Canada's embedded lucky charm in Sochi?

Canada has a tradition of embedding 'lucky charms' during our games at the Olympics.  For the past few Olympics that has involved embedding a dollar coin (the Lucky Loonie) in the ice surface somewhere at the rink.

During these Olympics, played in Russia, that wasn't an option. But did that deter us?

This morning 6 year old Ronin made an astute observation while watching the Men's Gold Medal hockey game.

Look closely at the Swedish player above sitting in the penalty box during the first period of today's Men's Gold Medal hockey game. Look inside his glove, which he has taken off and placed under his arm. You can just see a manufacture tag sewn on the inside of the glove…

It wasn't a Loonie, but our lucky charm was embedded notwithstanding.

(hat tip: the sharp eagle eyes of 6 year old Ronin)

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Sun Post #2: Canada wins 2014 Olympic Gold Medal in Men's Hockey (Canada 3 - Sweden 0)

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Canada vs Sweden for Men's 2014 Olympic Gold Medal

Tomorrow Canadians across this great land of ours will gather around the electronic hearth to watch the Men's Gold Medal final of the 2014 Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia.

In Vancouver, patriotic souls will rise at around 3:45 am (or stay up all Saturday night).

In 2010 the Gold Medal game was the most watch event in Canadian television history.

For Canadians there is nothing… and we mean nothing… which captures the collective imagination like a Canadian team playing at the pinnacle of the sport.

Tomorrow our boys will face off against a tough and worthy opponent.  Our hearts and hopes are with them.

Tonight we recall the national celebration, the national euphoria, of our overtime victory at the 2010 Olympic Games.

May we be blessed again in the morn.

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Fri Post #3: Canada vs USA, part 2: Men's Olympic Semi-final (Canada 1 USA 0)

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Fri Post #2: Canada's wins Gold in Men's Curling, Gold/Silver in Women's Freestyle Ski Cross and Bronze in Men's short track speed skating 500m

Congrats to Marielle Thompson who won the gold medal and Kelsey Serwa who won the silver medal in Freestyle Skiing Women's Ski Cross today.

Congrats to the Men's Curling Gold medal winners.

And congrats to Charles Cournoyer who won Bronze in Men's short track speed skating 500m.

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