Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Did MacLean's admit they were wrong?

As the Sochi Olympics come to end, Vancouver finds itself bathed in snow.  Four years ago we were, like Sochi, wearing shorts and T-shirts at this time of year. Maybe we are a winter city after all?

As we turn our attention back to all matter financial and real estate, we couldn't help but notice our blog being mentioned over on Alphabet Arnie's site.

AA headlines MacLeans Admits it has been wrong?!! and he writes:
Some time ago, around early 2012 when MacLeans magazine produced an issue with a cover story featuring a skyscraper and a house on fire as if the market WAS GOING to collapse, I lambasted them in one of our local blogs, where extracts of the article were reproduced. (see Whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.com). Anyways, I was trolling another local site "vancouvercondo.info when I came across this extract (in or about Jan 21, 2014), from a MacLeans reporter addressing negative market chit chat warning of a market collapse. I must say, I really relished reading this extract:
"This is a well worn theme for many Canadian reporters. Here at Maclean’s we’ve reached the same conclusion several times going back to 2008, and, admittedly, we’ve been proven fully and completely wrong."
In promoting the column on his site, AA even sent out this tweet asking others to retweet "to help inform."

Not that we wish to pour ketchup on his 'relish' or his desire to 'inform' but we think Arnie may have his timelines a little bit off.

AA believes Macleans is repudiating their 2012 cover story with that extract quote.

Umm… hate to break it to you Arnie, but the MacLean's extract is actually a quote from an article published on June 1, 2011. Far from repudiating the 2012 cover story, the extract was written almost a year before the cover story was even published (click on image to enlarge and see blue hilighted text):

Not sure they have actually admitted they were wrong about their 2012 cover story yet.


Email: village_whisperer@live.ca
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  1. Ending the IIP will absolutely kill off the Vancouver R/E market. Some realtors have recognized this fact, other not so much... yet.

    1. IMO, the legalization of pot will kill Vancouver real estate.

  2. Prices of Vancouver RE will continue to skyrocket.....in Bitcoins.

  3. He is just a turd, I would never buy or sell with this guy

  4. Thank you for pointing out the accurate date of the MacLean's article I quoted where the author admits they have been consistantly wrong with their bearish predictions from the period between 2008-August 2011 when it was written. I assumed incorrectly that the article was current as the extract was undated.

    However, reviewing that time period, I must say, that in fact, notwithstanding their admission, they were actually bang on in that August article and if one would have sold at that time taking advantage of the huge arrest of the market from the fall of 2008 until March of 2001, one would be thanking MacLeans for the tidy profit. So, the irony here is that while the 2011 article says they are getting things consistantly wrong, with the proper dating to the article, I can say that they at least got the 2008 market dip right.

    The trouble with this kind of market timing is that while the stock market may be a game to many, and our local housing market seems to have followed suit, there are negative consequences to actually trying to house our own communities including our children in the face of rampant international speculation in our back yard over the last number of years.

    While I cannot disagree that housing prices are outlandish, during the period from 2008 to date, a homebuyer would have paid off approximately 20% of his mortgage. So without even accounting for transactions costs and hedged in that purchase by his own use and enjoyment of the home he would be doing ok now. People need to live somewhere and in many areas rental prospects are bleak or too expensive.
    So where were people who didn't buy property because they listened to the press or market bashers supposed to live over the last 5 years if they wanted to stick around Lotusland?

    Certainly the market has been tempered, is indeed more balanced now, aand most certainly some of the speculation will be removed with changing visa rules. But other than the fall of 2008 and the slower period in 2012 (which would have felt like a crash to someone forced to sell at the time) those calling a major crash have to date been wrong; those who have relied on the expertise of anonymous bloggers have been confined to rental quarters and still face hefty prices in the market, all the while having paid down their landlord's mortgage.

    A review of any of the typical real estate market metrics from the total Lower Mainland market over the last 3 years shows a few changes,but the dire predictions and skepticism have not been borne out by recent history....yet. Unfortunaely this blog format will not permit the graphs I have assembled to illustrate the above to be tagged along with this post. But I have saved them and will pass them along to anyone who wants to view them.

    1. Brevity, man! BTW, I hereby predict the stock market will crash.....given your indifference for the timeliness of predictions, I trust you will tout me on your blog for my incredible investing genius.....eventually.

    2. In otherwords, homes prices are irrelevant, they can literally be any price whatsoever, because after 6 years (from 2008 to today) you would have paid off 20% of your mortgage and you would be OK. Ok, got it, any price for any home is OK, just buy it, there is no possible math that would ever make getting any home a bad buy. Brilliant! Can I also interest you in a whisk for $8.9 million to beat some eggs?

  5. I have been renting since may of 2005 and have had my money growing in investments while these turds kept on selling to the middle class and wiping them out while I have made way more money from investments without fixing the roof, plumbing and appliances.........all lawn cutting done by the landlord. I do not subsidise my landlord, he subsidizes me.