Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Real Estate never goes down... WAIT!... This just in...

How's this for a twist.

As noted by our fellow blogger Fish, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicts home prices in Vancouver will decline in 2012 as supply outstrips demand.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Magazine, who headline 'Vancouver home prices to decline in 2012', the BCREA's fourth quarter housing forecast is calling for a 2.5% decline in the average residential price next year... with detached homes leading the drop.

Must be a buying opportunity, right?

Of course this forecast from the BCREA comes after a stunning month of September wherein not one single new home sold on the west side of Vancouver.

This was followed up by the month of October in which the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) advised that sales for the month ranked as the the 2nd lowest in the past 10 years (click image to enlarge):

Toss in today's revised negative economic forecasts from both federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and suddenly you get a deep sense of foreboding that all may not be well in the land of the ever-appreciating real estate myth.

Soon we will add in a pinch of panic liquidations from debt stressed, China-based, Vancouver homeowners (see yesterday's post re: 'China's Residential Property Prices in Freefall')...

We will also mix in the first wave of Boomers whose retirement plans are wrapped solely around cashing in on the bubble-based equity of their real estate...

And suddenly you have a recipe for a perfect storm brewing.


What will tip the first domino.



Bueller? Bueller?


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1 comment:

  1. October was shitty but not "2008" shitty. Of course, the crisis isn't nearly as bad yet either. In the first nine months of 2008 we had Bear Stearns fail, the Fed doubled their balance sheet, Fannie and Freddie put into conservatorship, then Lehman Brothers, and a failed bailout vote after which Bernanke *withdrew* liquidity and blew down the house of cards. Ireland was bankrupt, Iceland blew up, etc.

    This year Europe is putting on a pretty good show, although it's hard to top 2010's accusations of "Nazi Gold". AFAIK Belgium still doesn't have a government yet they bailed out Dexia.

    But the fat lady everyone is waiting to hear is China. How many empty cities can you build before it crashes down around your ears? I would have thought the answer was "one", but it seems I may have underestimated their ambition. They've certainly produced what appears to be the second greatest ponzi scheme in history, the first being US government bonds.