\Yesterday we noted that Vancouver real estate agent Larry Yatkowsky had updated us on the average price figures with the November 2012 data that had just been released.
In the comments section, Mr. Yatkowsky replied to one of his contributors and made a very interesting comment of his own. When asked if there might be an uptick in sales in the spring 2013 which would drive prices higher, Yatkowsky agreed with the commentor that we the average price for single family houses would probably fall below $1,000,000 and that:
"that is probably a reality as there is little actionable support out there. The sense we Realtor types get from our coffee sessions is that everybody is waiting and digesting the mortgage rule changes. The scary part is nobody will really know when the bottom hits. By the time we get there and figure it out it will have passed.The Vancouver real estate market is a box of chocolates. A best guess low may be early 2014.”.
That would be 16 more months of continuing declines - at best.
And it gives you an idea of what the market is really like when those with an inside view of the market are worried that things might not turn around until Spring of 2014.
And it gives you an idea of what the market is really like when those with an inside view of the market are worried that things might not turn around until Spring of 2014.
(hat tip VREAA)
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Meh! Larry has posted this kind of stuff before. And then he posts the opposite later on. Why? Because he's in sales.
ReplyDelete"The Vancouver Real estate market is like a box of chocolates"
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Oh come off it Larry. What BS. We all know it is a lottery. I really could not stop laughing when I read that "box of chocolates" spin. Pure nonsense. Hey man....how about the market is a barrel of rotten apples or a dogs breakfast or even a cold bowl of Alphabits?
Ever think of that?
How about looking at the chart you posted yesterday. We are still far from the prices of 2009 when CMHC decided to give out mortgages like candy on Halloween. As we approach the limit of $600B, and retract back to "normal" practices, we should easily see 2009 prices. But like all bubbles, this will overshoot the means. You won't see the bottom in 2014 - chocolates my a**
ReplyDeleteSo now we know what the realtor insiders really think. We haven't even got to 2013 yet, and they are writing off the whole year, and then some.
ReplyDeleteI imagine they'll be telling their clients and the media something different, like the flatline hypothesis. I just hope I don't see any more of these GREAT INVESTMENT or hurry on this OPPORTUNITY phrases.
"The scary part is nobody will really know when the bottom hits. By the time we get there and figure it out it will have passed." Typical realtor BS from Larry. When prices overshoot the mean then we will be near bottom. It's not hard to figure that out.
ReplyDeleteCalling a bottom is as easy as calling a top, and as we've seen, calling a top ain't easy.
DeleteHe's being vauge and cliche but he's right. It could look like a bottom then drop another 20%, given that RE markets are controlled mostly by people not really paying attention anything can happen.
Hey W.... time to start spinning the eco collapse into property prices and long term PMs?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ecoshock.net/eshock12/ES_121205_Show_LoFi.mp3
You can forget "timing the bottom" this time folks, because this time is unlike any other time in world history. Nobody should assume this recession will end like all others and here are reasons why:
ReplyDelete1)40 year debt bubble
2)US determined to start major world war
3)Worldwide money printing like never before
4)All major political leaders committed to globalist agenda, requires destruction of current economic system before new Orwellian system born
5)Derivatives market will blow up, over a quadrillion dollars
6)US will cease to be largest economy and have reserve currency, our largest trading partner by far buying much less. Already seeing declines in exports
Don't believe it? Sit back and watch it all unfold over next decade.
Obama's threat against Assad may turn into a major war. Greece, Spain, Egypt, all making news daily. Don't forget that the US has really "pissed off" China with backing Japan on this island thing. And we all know that China is really calm and rational (not). Can't wait to see how China retaliates. Fiscal cliff. It's entirely possible that the Mayan Calendar could come true - the end of the world as we know it Dec 21st.
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ReplyDeleteSorry Simmon... no advertising please.
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