“the situation was evolving where expectations by purchasers were excessive with respect to single family dwellings, and ultimately unaffordable when mortgage rates go up.”
“I’d rather see some softening in the markets, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, than have a rapid decline."
Simpson was optimistic that "Finance Minister Jim Flaherty may intervene in amortization period for home mortgages"
“I hope he looks at markets where affordability is already an issue, like Vancouver."
There is valid concern that if the monthly sales volume continues to tank after the Labour Day weekend, the situation will become dire for home builders.
"The real threat to the economy is if a real-estate slowdown leads to a sharp reduction in housing starts. That’s because new-home construction stimulates the sale of appliances, carpets, and other products. For every housing start, there are 2.8 person years of employment that are create.That’s direct and indirect jobs. If it continues to fall, they’re going to have to take a good hard look at what their actions have caused — and be prepared to make some adjustments. ”
Simpson will no doubt be quite dismayed that those changes are just the start... more changes are on the way.
The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) are about to mandate far-reaching changes in how big banks make real estate loans.
Beginning October 31st, home equity lines of credit will be trimmed again.
The amount you can borrow from the value of your homes will be reduced from 80% to 65%.
If you want to borrow more, the amount between 65% and 80% will have to amortized like a mortgage.
This will have a significant impact on groups like the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association because the primary uses of HELOC money goes toward renovating houses and buying rental properties.
In addition to this, mortgages will be made harder to get. The OFSI will require borrowers to qualify to “the greater of the contractual mortgage rate or the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada.” That's a huge change from qualifying for the Variable Mortgage Rate.
The OFSI will also eliminate cash-back mortgages, a kick-back cash-cow for new homeowners equal to the 5% downpayment required to get CMHC insurance.
And, finally, liar loans will be eliminated.
History tells us all booms created by excess credit will ultimately bust.
CMHC has grown from $100 Billion in mortgages in 2006 to an astounding $600 Billion in 2012. Excess credit... it is what created our housing boom.
And now that stimulus is being choked off.
Shorter mortgages, higher rates and tougher borrowing... all resulting in less credit.
It doesn't take a crystal ball to foresee the cumulative effect this will create.
The howls of complaint from developers and realtors have only just begun. But Flaherty knows the alternative is worse.
“I’d rather see some softening in the markets, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, than have a rapid decline."Rapid or not, a decline is coming.
All booms created by excess credit always bust... always,
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