Monday, August 20, 2012

Canadian price declines called the "Vancouver Manouevre" - Royal Bank declares Vancouver market in a correction

Well it certainly appears the concern about what is going to happen in the Real Estate market this Autumn is ramping up.

After an abysmal summer and all the negative press, the fall market usually see a resurgence in listings... but will there be buyers?

Judging by the comments of Bank Economists, it appears everyone is bracing for dismal times.

The Financial Post tells us that Canadian home prices are falling steadily.

Much of the decline in the national Canadian average is being blamed on Vancouver.

An economist at BMO Financial Group called it the “Vancouver Manouevre”. Our city's price drops have brought down the national average despite 19 of 26 cities experiencing year-over-year increases.

As we have mentioned here before, Vancouver's average sale price dropped more than 12% year over year and 20% since May 2012.

RBC economist Robert Hogue said:
"We still believe that Vancouver is probably the most stressed market right now because of extremely poor affordability. Plot the resale figures over the last year or so and you see a fairly significant decline in resales, so I think that this does the fit the definition of correction.
Of course it does. When you have prices collapsing 20%, what other conclusion could you come to?

Naturally the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) disagrees.


BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir says:
“Typically to see a price correction you need to see a macroeconomic shock — recession, very high unemployment, for example — or you need to see interest rates go up very dramatically in a short period of time. Both of those we don’t see on the horizon.”
Cameron claims one-third of our market is first-time buyers and he insists there is no shortage of those 'first time buyers' to keep greasing the wheels of the property ladder:
“As long as we have first-time buyers that can get into the market to buy the homes from the people who are moving up, moving over, moving down, then the market should remain healthy.”
But if tighter mortgage regulations are making more difficult for potential first time buyers - and buyers are watching the market prices fall - when enter the market right now?

Watch for an unprecedented full out media campaign this fall promoting young first time buyers to do the 'smart' thing and get into the market.

In the absence of 'Hot Asian Money', what else will keep the ponzi going?


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1 comment:

  1. The old first time buyer saw. No matter how hard you pump, the well oddly seems mostly dry.