Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts

Thursday, March 15, 2012

"A little is alright" - the danger of inflation



Earlier this week US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke uttered this infamous phrase about inflation:
"A little is alright"
This blog has talked about the dangers of inflation before.  And just like interest rates, the idea that inflation could rear it's ugly head again is considered insanity by villagers on the Edge of the Rainforest.

But Bernanke has a different message, "a little is all right." Or at least that’s what he said when asked about the evidence of inflation in the U.S. recovery.

This is a change for Bernanke. In the past he has simply said he  doesn’t see inflation. The Fed chairman recently described the prospects for price increases across the board as “subdued.”

Bloomberg picked up on Bernanke's shift from 'subdued' to 'a little is alright' message and made some good points.

Looking back at history, inflation has a way of coming about suddenly and, once it does, can be very difficult to stop.

The thing about inflation is that it comes out of nowhere and hits you. Monetary policy is like sailing. You’re gliding along, passing the peninsula, and you come about. Nothing. Then the wind fills the sail so fast it knocks you into the sea. 

Right now, the U.S. is a sailboat that has just made open water, and has already come about. That wind is coming. The sailor just doesn’t know it.

“Sudden” has happened to us before. 

In World War I, an early version of what we would call the CPI-U, the consumer price index for urban areas, went from 1% for 1915 to 7% in 1916 to 17% in 1917. 

To returning vets, that felt awful sudden.

History has other examples. In 1945, all seemed well: Inflation was 2%, at least officially. Within two years that level hit 14%.

All appeared calm in 1972, too, before inflation jumped to 11% by 1974, and stayed high for the rest of the decade, diminishing the quality of life for everyone.

As central banks around the world massively increase the money supply (the true definition of inflation - it just takes several years to see it reflected in prices), we are told not to worry by Bernanke.

First he told us it isn't there.

Now he is telling us a little is a good thing.

Why will this time be any different?

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Friday, August 12, 2011

Friday Post #1: Concerns as Dollars starting to flood back to the United States?


As everyone knows, the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency.  Trillions of US Dollars sit overseas.

The events of the last ten days are surely for the history books. And blogs everywhere are reviving the inflation/deflation debate.

The public often miscontrues what inflation is.

By pure definition inflation is the expansion of the monetary supply, while deflation is the decline in that supply.

Everywhere we hear about the deflation threat and this threat is cited as the justification for all the liquidity that is being pumped into the system. The US Federal Reserve has expanded the US$ money supply through USTreasury debt monetization severely the past 2 years to the tune of at least $2 trillion.

That is bigtime inflation!!

The reaction has been to protect against the price inflation (higher costs) and bond deflation (lost value) by the widespread purchase of both Gold & Silver (safe haven).

Speaking of growing the money supply (inflation) there was an interesting story over on Bloomberg Wednesday that asks: Is the European debt crisis poised to flood U.S. banks with money?

It seems that the amount of cash held by U.S. banks surged 8.4% to a record $981 billion during the week ending July 27, the Federal Reserve said in an Aug. 5 report.

That’s more than triple the amount firms had in July 2008, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers almost froze bank-to-bank lending.

According to Brian Smedley, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York, even more money may be deposited with U.S. lenders if investors pull away from European banks amid concern the Greek debt crisis may spread to Italy or beyond.

Banks, apparently, are worried.

With few opportunities to lend that money out profitably, those funds may not be so welcome. U.S. firms may have to slap fees on depositors to keep returns from eroding.

Bank of New York Mellon, the world’s largest custody bank, announced plans last week to charge institutional clients for unusually high balances above $50 million. In a letter to customers, the New York-based firm said it’s “taking steps to pass on costs incurred from sudden and significant increases in U.S. dollar deposits” linked to events including the Greek crisis and the uncertainty over the U.S. debt-ceiling debate.

“There’s an enormous amount of dollar liquidity because of what the Fed has done in recent years,” said Raymond Stone, who tracks U.S. money markets as a managing partner at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.

Most of the largest U.S. banks have increased their deposits. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s deposits rose almost 13% to $1.05 trillion at the end of June, from $930 billion at the end of December. Bank of America’s deposits climbed 3% to $1.04 trillion from $1.01 trillion.

Since late 2008, the Fed has been paying interest on deposits placed with the central bank, known as interest on excess reserves, or IOER. That rate is currently set at 25 basis points, or 0.25 percent.

At that rate, banks may struggle to profit from even non-interest-paying deposits, because the companies must pay premiums to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. when they route the money to the Fed.

Joseph Abate, a money-market analyst at Barclays Capital wrote in an Aug. 5 report that a game of monetary 'hot potato' could result.

The higher deposit cost, the potential need for additional capital and the flight-prone nature of these balances clearly outweigh the 25-basis-point return the banks would earn depositing the money at the Fed.

Abate wrote that any reduction in the interest rate on excess reserves - a move Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress in July might be possible - may create a “serial round of deposit fees” since banks would try to “push cash from their balance sheets” like a game of “hot potato.”

“Domestic banks will work very hard to shed those surplus reserves,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson, a New Jersey-based unit of London-based ICAP Plc, the world’s largest inter-dealer broker. “They’re not eager to expand their balance sheets with low-yielding assets even when they earn a small positive spread.”

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Thursday, April 28, 2011

Wal Mart CEO: "Shoppers Are Running Out Of Money"; There Is "No Sign Of A Recovery"


About a month ago we wrote a post about Walmart's CEO warning American's to prepare for serious inflation.  You can see that post here.

Walmart's CEO Bill Simon said at the time that:
  • "every single retailer has and is paying more for the items they sell, and retailers will be passing some of these costs along. Except for fuel costs, U.S. consumers haven't seen much in the way of inflation for almost a decade, so a broad-based increase in prices will be unprecedented in recent memory."

Well almost a month later, Simon is making news again on the inflation front and it comes a day after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke insisted that "the economic recovery was proceeding at a moderate pace, with little risk an inflationary psychology would take hold."

In an interview with USA Today, Simon says that consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products and that "we're seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate.".

John Long, a retail strategist, notes that labor costs in China and fuel costs for transportation are weighing heavily on retailers. He predicts prices will start increasing at all retailers in June.

"Every single retailer has and is paying more for the items they sell, and retailers will be passing some of these costs along," Long says. "Except for fuel costs, U.S. consumers haven't seen much in the way of inflation for almost a decade, so a broad-based increase in prices will be unprecedented in recent memory."

In another article, on CNN Money, Walmart noted that the store's core shoppers are running out of money much faster than a year ago due to rising gasoline prices, and the retail giant is worried.
  • "We're seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure. There's no doubt that rising fuel prices are having an impact.  Wal-Mart shoppers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, typically shop in bulk at the beginning of the month when their paychecks come in. Lately, they're running out of money at a faster clip. Purchases are really dropping off by the end of the month even more than last year. This end-of-month [purchases] cycle is growing to be a concern."
To that end, Walmart says they are not seeing any signs of a recovery yet.

(Note: I hope to have the COMEX post I refered to yesterday for you later tonight)

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Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Inflation actually near 10% according to CNBC


Quick post for today.

As faithful readers know, this blog has often posted that inflation is not only coming at us hard, but is in fact already here.

Numerous times we have talked about how the methods used to calculate inflation were changed in 2000. If you calculate inflation the way it was calculated in 1999 and before, the inflation rate is well into early 1970s levels.

And today, CNBC has come out with a story saying just that.

With an article titled "Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure", CNBC confirms what the blogosphere has been saying for almost a year now.

In case it gets yanked, here is the full story:


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After former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was appointed in 1979, the consumer price index surged into the double digits, causing the now revered Fed Chief to double the benchmark interest rate in order to break the back of inflation. Using the methodology in place at that time puts the CPI back near those levels.

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.

Since 1980, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it calculates the CPI in order to account for the substitution of products, improvements in quality (i.e. iPad 2 costing the same as original iPad) and other things. Backing out more methods implemented in 1990 by the BLS still puts inflation at a 5.5 percent rate and getting worse, according to the calculations by the newsletter’s web site, Shadowstats.com.

“Near-term circumstances generally have continued to deteriorate,” said John Williams, creator of the site, in a new note out Tuesday. “Though not yet commonly recognized, there is both an intensifying double-dip recession and a rapidly escalating inflation problem. Until such time as financial-market expectations catch up with underlying reality, reporting generally will continue to show higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected economic results in the month and months ahead.”
The pay-site and newsletter by Williams, an economic consultant for the last 30 years to companies, has gained a cult following among bloggers hungry to criticize Bernanke these days. The mission statement of the newsletter, according to the site, is to expose and analyze “flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting…net of financial-market and political hype.”

Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of March’s CPI reading on Friday. The consensus estimate from economists is for an annual inflation rate of 2.6 percent.
“Given ongoing inflation problems with food and the spreading impact of higher oil-related costs in the broad economy, reporting risk is to the upside of consensus expectation,” said Williams, citing a 10 percent jump in gasoline prices in March, in the note.
“While the federal government would have us believe the numbers are rather tame, our own personal gauge leads us to believe inflation is running between 5 percent to 6 percent annually,” wrote Alan Newman in his latest Crosscurrents newsletter that refers to Williams’ statistics.

Newman uses recent comments from Walmart CEO Bill Simon that inflation is going to be “serious” to back up the much higher CPI figures from him and Williams.

“Given Walmart's sales of $422 billion, we think Mr. Simon has a good idea of what’s in the pipeline,” said Newman.

To be sure, the BLS argues that the changes it has made over the last three decades more accurately reflect a true change in the cost of living. For example, in response to its hedonic adjustments, the BLS web site states, “to measure price change accurately, the CPI must be able to distinguish the portion of price change due to this quality change.
Still, going by recent strong comments from Federal Reserve officials, even members of the central bank must believe inflation is being underreported. Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said in a speech last week that the central bank was reaching a “tipping point” as far as changing its policy so it can react to inflation. Maybe Fisher stumbled across Shadowstats.com. The voting member did, after all, mention Volcker in the same speech.
“The need to break the back of that (budgetary debt) spiral is as dire now as was the need for Paul Volcker to break the back of inflation in the 1980s,” said Fisher on April 8th. “As a result of his steadfast determination to press on with exorcising inflation, Mr. Volcker is today among the most respected living Americans and widely considered an exemplar for public servants worldwide.”

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Monday, February 28, 2011

Peter Schiff on CNBC: Inflation, the collapsing US Dollar and rising interest rates in other countries


Peter Schiff comments on the sweeping inflation raging around the world and the impact it is going to start having on the US dollar. As we have been talking about on this blog for the past year, inflation - not deflation - is going to be our central story.

Speaking of other nations raising interest rates, Russia unexpectedly raised their prime rate again. It now stands at 8%.

And as Schiff says... higher rates will becoming to North America before long.

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Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Presto-Chango

I had to laugh this morning.

As many of you know I have been warning about cost-push inflation since Quantitative Easing began.

The flood of liquidity would find it's way into the markets, commodities would surge, and the cost of doing business would spike for business translating into higher prices. All while jobs numbers - and wages - stagnated.

NONE of this, however, would show up in our Consumer Price Index because in 1999/2000 government changed the way the CPI was calculated and gutted all the factors like food and energy from the calculations.

Thus we have a situation where inflation, when calculated like it was in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, is surging along at about 8% while 'official' government statistics peg it at 1-2%.

Yesterday our friends over at Financial Insights commented how inflation is raging in China and retail margins over here are facing a coming squeeze.

(A squeeze which isn't just coming, it's already here. We're finally seeing it translate into higher prices but make no mistake, that squeeze has been going on for months)

I commented on the post at FI and jokingly said that China would just have to change the way they calculate inflation like we did in 1999/2000 and... presto-chango... no inflation.

Turns out is wasn't all that much of a joke as China is about to do just that.

The old saying goes that there are lies, damn lies and then there are government statistics.

Remember that the next time you're wallet is bare and the government (and some bloggers) tell you there is no inflation.

As I said last Friday, combine this squeeze on basics with rising interest rates and new mortgage rules... and life for home owners with a mortgage here in the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest is going to get very, very difficult.

Once this process kicks into high gear, and the serious price inflation comes, I think we will all look back and be shocked that there were people who actually worried about deflation in 2008-2010.

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Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Stagflation, anyone? (updated)

It is said that history doesn't repeat itself, but often follows similar patterns.

And if you have followed this blog for any length of time you know my thoughts about inflation are that we are following patterns similar to what we experienced in the 1970s.

Since Quantative Easing began in 2009, I have cautioned that the biggest looming threat is not deflation, but the inevitable inflation that all this liquidity is going to trigger combined with a stagnating economy.

Inflation is already with us.

It has been taking root around the world for the past 6 months, machinations of a deliberate monetary policy to debase the world’s reserve currency.

All that debasement has had one objective... the creation of a little inflation to get America and the west out of the deflationary spiral caused by the failure of those horrid financial instruments known as OTC Derivatives and un-payable government debt.

Around the world, inflation has erupted in global food prices. Most of the world has no savings to get through difficult times and “hedge” inflationary outcomes.

Those outcomes appear quickly and change realities violently. American monetary policy and the global “race to debase” is the reason you are seeing raging crowds on TV from Ireland to Greece and Egypt.

Looking at China and India alone, despite the fact that the yuan and rupee rose 2.4% and 1.3% respectively against the dollar through November of last year, inflation rates in both countries dwarfed the relatively tame readings we are reporting in North America; Chinese consumer prices up 4.4% and India's up 8.6%.

Frequently you hear people say "if inflation is such a problem, why isn't it registering in the consumer price index?"

The answer to this supposed riddle of non-existent inflation: inflation is all in how you measure it.

In North America food, along with energy have been stripped out of our CPI, and the result is a more tame inflation reading.

But those price pressures still exist notwithstanding.

30 years ago when Ronald Reagan entered the White House, it was precisely the spike in food and energy - ignored today - that had Reagan and others so concerned about inflation.

Times change, and governments become slick and manipulative, and now those price pressures have supposedly 'disappeared'.

Calculate inflation today the way it was calculated in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s and the federal government's measure of inflation would be substantially higher than what we are currently being told.

Once you understand that... then the latest statements from the Governor of the Bank of England that standards of living are about to plunge are not all that surprising.

Mervyn King, Britain’s counterpart to the Bank of Canada's Mark Carney, has delivered a stern, sobering message to his country:

  • "In 2011, real wages are likely to be no higher than they were in 2005... One has to go back to the 1920s to find a time when real wages fell over a period of six years."

    "The Bank of England cannot prevent the squeeze on real take-home pay that so many families are now beginning to realise is the legacy of the banking crisis and the need to rebalance our economy."

    "The squeeze on living standards is the inevitable price to pay for the financial crisis and subsequent rebalancing of the world and UK economies."

    "Furthermore, inflation may rise to somewhere between four per cent and five per cent over the next few months."

    "The idea that (we) could have preserved living standards, by preventing the rise in inflation without also pushing down earnings growth further, is wishful thinking."

    "Unpleasant though it is, the Monetary Policy Committee neither can, nor should try to, prevent the squeeze in living standards, half of which is coming in the form of higher prices and half in earnings rising at a rate lower than normal."

    "I sympathise completely with savers and those who behaved prudently now find themselves among the biggest losers from this crisis.”

The Governor of the Central Bank of England has looked his country in the eye and admitted that he is completely powerless to prevent the inevitable decline in living standards that inflation and a stagnating economy are about to ravage upon us.

Meanwhile in Canada, our Central Banker has been sounding alarm bells since last February about high debt and the impact of significant looming interest rate hikes combined with an economy that will not grow fast enough to offset them.

Both Governors can see what's coming.

And as the blog has repeatedly posted, it's all about inflation, a stagnating economy and the looming spectre of rising interest rates.

Meanwhile Reuters reports that more manufacturer's are warning of rising input costs.

Emerson CEO David Farr said inflation ran well ahead of the company's own projections, and the company was spending three times as much on materials as on labor.

"We'll have to significantly increase prices around the world because this is not a momentary blip," Farr told analysts on the company's conference call.

"In my opinion, I think net material inflation could run at higher levels for the next two or three years. That's a plus and a minus in many regards but in reality this is an issue we'll have to deal with. It's not going away."

Earlier this week, Illinois Tool Works, which makes a variety of products for the automotive, residential construction, and industrial marketplace, warned it might not be able to fully recoup all the raw material price increases it is seeing - even though it expects to raise prices this year.

Officially it's known as cost-push inflation. Wages don't rise, jobs don't increase and the economy founders, but manufacturing costs rise anyways pushing up prices.

QE1 and QE2 are the causes. And now there's talk of QE3.

Inflation has only just started.

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Monday, November 1, 2010

Every breath you take...

A couple of points for a post that is being written late on Hallow's Eve.

This week the US Federal Reserve is going to announce QE2.

Personally I suspect that it will be lower than what the market is expecting. The announcement of the amount, that is.

The real amount will far exceed expectations.

Bernanke is an intellectual, and a predictable one at that. He has neither said anything up to now nor will he dare process a thought that deviates from his doctoral thesis.

I personally expect that the announcement will be for moderate QE and over the weeks and months ahead additional QE will be implemented a little at a time.

And as I have said before, get ready for inflation.

The announced (and stealth) monetization that is coming is going to accelerate the inflation that already exists.

The Federal Reserve has already stated the objective is increased inflation. A recent Fed Report, released in September, even argues that such unacknowledged CPT shocks (like the surges in the price of oil we will likely experience courtesy of a fresh trillion in liquidity) are beneficial to GDP and stimulative to the interest-rate sensitive parts of the economy. "In fact, if the increase in oil prices is gradual, the persistent rise in inflation can cause a GDP expansion."

But this surge is not something we have to wait for. As I have said, inflation is already here.

The two key commodities that have been rising lately are oil and grains, specifically wheat, corn and livestock feed (see the BLS report on Producer Price Index of commodities).

Grains as a class have risen over 33% year-over-year. Refined oil products have risen just shy of 13%, and home heating oil 18% year-over-year.

That means food, gasoline and heating oil have risen by double digits since 2009.

Looming issues with the foreclosure crisis, the looming pension crisis', the looming individual US state budget crisis', all portent a massive amount of QE coming down the pike regardless of the amount announced by Bernanke this coming week.

Count on it.

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Tuesday, October 26, 2010

More on inflation and... why we will see the US print money to infinity

Adding further to my argument that we are actually dealing with inflation and deflation at the same time comes this little treatsie from McDonalds.

Yesterday McDonald's said it was preparing to raise prices to cover higher costs of commodities.

McDonald's has not raised prices since late 1990 and the firm has said it expected commodity costs to rise up to 3% in 2011. The price hikes are expected in Europe and the United States, but the firm did not release details.

Meanwhile, if it interests you, check out this excellent post on Washington's Blog on the real dangers of the Foreclosure Crisis.

As we have talked about the past few weeks, the potential securitization problem is why bank stocks are now in trouble. Along with those concerns come this intriguing quote from former Managing Director of Goldman Sachs, Nomi Prins. He points out that US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and US Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy Geithner are both terrified of a meltdown in the securitization market:
  • The reason TARP and all the other subsidies happened was that Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner (the pillage gang) and the most powerful Wall Street CEOs were scared. Banks had stopped trusting each other (no one cared about the person who couldn’t pay their mortgage, or had their home taken, whatever the reason). When there is no confidence in the market, there is no bid for securities, no matter what the reason.

    The banks couldn’t pay for all their leverage and they were facing bankruptcy if the system remained seized up. So the gang paid to keep the securitization market going, by finding a home or back-up home for the assets. They did not propose any remotely effective plan to help individuals at the loan level .... They merely enabled the worst practices and excesses to keep going in the name of saving the country from a greater depression, by shifting them to Washington and providing the illusion of demand for them.

Follow that up by checking out this interview with Chris Whalen on the Foreclosure Crisis, mortgage backed securities and the slow moving time bomb represented by the whole mess...


Then there is this from Nouriel Roubini on CNBC.

Roubini says U.S. states are in for it.

Municipal debt is up to 20% of GDP, he said. And unfunded liabilities of state and local pension funds? Those are as high as $3 trillion — another 20% of GDP. So, basically, get ready — especially in Quarter 1 when states can no longer use federal money to plug their budget holes.

“The issue is whether the Federal government will bail out state and local governments with a federal guarantee of their debt,” Roubini said, likening the scenario to the money received by Greece and to be generalized to other Eurozone members in trouble via the new European "stabilization fund."

Some might call it the trillion dollar question: what will the government do if the states fail?

The possibility of states failing, is no longer a scary hypothetical. Roubini said that many US states are semi-insolvent. According to a report by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, forty-eight states addressed shortfalls in their fiscal year 2010 budgets, totaling $191 billion or 29% of state budgets — the largest gaps on record.

QE 2 is not the question. The real question is, how large will QE 3 and 4 be.

Finally, via John Maullin, comes this excerpt from Michael Hudson's new book "How a Gang of Predatory Lenders and Wall Street Bankers Fleeced America - and Spawned a Global Crisis". The introduction gives an excellent peak into the beginnings of the Foreclose Mess.

  • Introduction:
    Bait and Switch

    A few weeks after he started working at Ameriquest Mortgage, Mark Glover looked up from his cubicle and saw a coworker do something odd. The guy stood at his desk on the twenty-third floor of downtown Los Angeles's Union Bank Building. He placed two sheets of paper against the window. Then he used the light streaming through the window to trace something from one piece of paper to another. Somebody's signature.

    Glover was new to the mortgage business. He was twenty-nine and hadn't held a steady job in years. But he wasn't stupid. He knew about financial sleight of hand—at that time, he had a check-fraud charge hanging over his head in the L.A. courthouse a few blocks away. Watching his coworker, Glover's first thought was: How can I get away with that? As a loan officer at Ameriquest, Glover worked on commission. He knew the only way to earn the six-figure income Ameriquest had promised him was to come up with tricks for pushing deals through the mortgage-financing pipeline that began with Ameriquest and extended through Wall Street's most respected investment houses.

    Glover and the other twentysomethings who filled the sales force at the downtown L.A. branch worked the phones hour after hour, calling strangers and trying to talk them into refinancing their homes with high-priced "subprime" mortgages. It was 2003, subprime was on the rise, and Ameriquest was leading the way. The company's owner, Roland Arnall, had in many ways been the founding father of subprime, the business of lending money to home owners with modest incomes or blemished credit histories. He had pioneered this risky segment of the mortgage market amid the wreckage of the savings and loan disaster and helped transform his company's headquarters, Orange County, California, into the capital of the subprime industry. Now, with the housing market booming and Wall Street clamoring to invest in subprime, Ameriquest was growing with startling velocity.

    Up and down the line, from loan officers to regional managers and vice presidents, Ameriquest's employees scrambled at the end of each month to push through as many loans as possible, to pad their monthly production numbers, boost their commissions, and meet Roland Arnall's expectations. Arnall was a man "obsessed with loan volume," former aides recalled, a mortgage entrepreneur who believed "volume solved all problems." Whenever an underling suggested a goal for loan production over a particular time span, Arnall's favorite reply was: "We can do twice that." Close to midnight Pacific time on the last business day of each month, the phone would ring at Arnall's home in Los Angeles's exclusive Holmby Hills neighborhood, a $30 million estate that once had been home to Sonny and Cher.On the other end of the telephone line, a vice president in Orange County would report the month's production numbers for his lending empire. Even as the totals grew to $3 billion or $6 billion or $7 billion a month—figures never before imagined in the subprime business—Arnall wasn't satisfied. He wanted more. "He would just try to make you stretch beyond what you thought possible," one former Ameriquest executive recalled. "Whatever you did, no matter how good you did, it wasn't good enough."

    Inside Glover's branch, loan officers kept up with the demand to produce by guzzling Red Bull energy drinks, a favorite caffeine pick-me-up for hardworking salesmen throughout the mortgage industry. Government investigators would later joke that they could gauge how dirty a home-loan location was by the number of empty Red Bull cans in the Dumpster out back. Some of the crew in the L.A. branch, Glover said, also relied on cocaine to keep themselves going, snorting lines in washrooms and, on occasion, in their cubicles.

    The wayward behavior didn't stop with drugs. Glover learned that his colleague's art work wasn't a matter of saving a borrower the hassle of coming in to supply a missed signature. The guy was forging borrowers' signatures on government-required disclosure forms, the ones that were supposed to help consumers understand how much cash they'd be getting out of the loan and how much they'd be paying in interest and fees. Ameriquest's deals were so overpriced and loaded with nasty surprises that getting customers to sign often required an elaborate web of psychological ploys, outright lies, and falsified papers. "Every closing that we had really was a bait and switch," a loan officer who worked for Ameriquest in Tampa, Florida, recalled. " 'Cause you could never get them to the table if you were honest." At companywide gatherings, Ameriquest's managers and sales reps loosened up with free alcohol and swapped tips for fooling borrowers and cooking up phony paperwork. What if a customer insisted he wanted a fixed-rate loan, but you could make more money by selling him an adjustable-rate one? No problem. Many Ameriquest salespeople learned to position a few fixed-rate loan documents at the top of the stack of paperwork to be signed by the borrower. They buried the real documents—the ones indicating the loan had an adjustable rate that would rocket upward in two or three years—near the bottom of the pile. Then, after the borrower had flipped from signature line to signature line, scribbling his consent across the entire stack, and gone home, it was easy enough to peel the fixed-rate documents off the top and throw them in the trash.

    At the downtown L.A. branch, some of Glover's coworkers had a flair for creative documentation. They used scissors, tape, Wite-Out, and a photocopier to fabricate W-2s, the tax forms that indicate how much a wage earner makes each year. It was easy: Paste the name of a low-earning borrower onto a W-2 belonging to a higher-earning borrower and, like magic, a bad loan prospect suddenly looked much better. Workers in the branch equipped the office's break room with all the tools they needed to manufacture and manipulate official documents. They dubbed it the "Art Department."

    At first, Glover thought the branch might be a rogue office struggling to keep up with the goals set by Ameriquest's headquarters. He discovered that wasn't the case when he transferred to the company's Santa Monica branch. A few of his new colleagues invited him on a field trip to Staples, where everyone chipped in their own money to buy a state-of-the-art scanner-printer, a trusty piece of equipment that would allow them to do a better job of creating phony paperwork and trapping American home owners in a cycle of crushing debt.

    Carolyn Pittman was an easy target. She'd dropped out of high school to go to work, and had never learned to read or write very well. She worked for decades as a nursing assistant. Her husband, Charlie, was a longshoreman.In 1993 she and Charlie borrowed $58,850 to buy a one-story, concrete block house on Irex Street in a working-class neighborhood of Atlantic Beach, a community of thirteen thousand near Jacksonville, Florida. Their mortgage was government-insured by the Federal Housing Administration, so they got a good deal on the loan. They paid about $500 a month on the FHA loan, including the money to cover their home insurance and property taxes.

    Even after Charlie died in 1998, Pittman kept up with her house payments. But things were tough for her. Financial matters weren't something she knew much about. Charlie had always handled what little money they had. Her health wasn't good either. She had a heart attack in 2001, and was back and forth to hospitals with congestive heart failure and kidney problems.

    Like many older black women who owned their homes but had modest incomes, Pittman was deluged almost every day, by mail and by phone, with sales pitches offering money to fix up her house or pay off her bills. A few months after her heart attack, a salesman from Ameriquest Mortgage's Coral Springs office caught her on the phone and assured her he could ease her worries. He said Ameriquest would help her out by lowering her interest rate and her monthly payments.

    She signed the papers in August 2001. Only later did she discover that the loan wasn't what she'd been promised. Her interest rate jumped from a fixed 8.43 percent on the FHA loan to a variable rate that started at nearly 11 percent and could climb much higher. The loan was also packed with more than $7,000 in up-front fees, roughly 10 percent of the loan amount.

    Pittman's mortgage payment climbed to $644 a month. Even worse, the new mortgage didn't include an escrow for real-estate taxes and insurance. Most mortgage agreements require home owners to pay a bit extra—often about $100 to $300 a month—which is set aside in an escrow account to cover these expenses. But many subprime lenders obscured the true costs of their loans by excluding the escrow from their deals, which made the monthly payments appear lower. Many borrowers didn't learn they had been tricked until they got a big bill for unpaid taxes or insurance a year down the road.

    That was just the start of Pittman's mortgage problems. Her new mortgage was a matter of public record, and by taking out a loan from Ameriquest, she'd signaled to other subprime lenders that she was vulnerable—that she was financially unsophisticated and was struggling to pay an unaffordable loan. In 2003, she heard from one of Ameriquest's competitors, Long Beach Mortgage Company.

    Pittman had no idea that Long Beach and Ameriquest shared the same corporate DNA. Roland Arnall's first subprime lender had been Long Beach Savings and Loan, a company he had morphed into Long Beach Mortgage. He had sold off most of Long Beach Mortgage in 1997, but hung on to a portion of the company that he rechristened Ameriquest. Though Long Beach and Ameriquest were no longer connected, both were still staffed with employees who had learned the business under Arnall.

    A salesman from Long Beach Mortgage, Pittman said, told her that he could help her solve the problems created by her Ameriquest loan. Once again, she signed the papers. The new loan from Long Beach cost her thousands in up-front fees and boosted her mortgage payments to $672 a month.

    Ameriquest reclaimed her as a customer less than a year later. A salesman from Ameriquest's Jacksonville branch got her on the phone in the spring of 2004. He promised, once again, that refinancing would lower her interest rate and her monthly payments. Pittman wasn't sure what to do. She knew she'd been burned before, but she desperately wanted to find a way to pay off the Long Beach loan and regain her financial bearings. She was still pondering whether to take the loan when two Ameriquest representatives appeared at the house on Irex Street. They brought a stack of documents with them. They told her, she later recalled, that it was preliminary paperwork, simply to get the process started. She could make up her mind later. The men said, "sign here," "sign here," "sign here," as they flipped through the stack. Pittman didn't understand these were final loan papers and her signatures were binding her to Ameriquest. "They just said sign some papers and we'll help you," she recalled.

    To push the deal through and make it look better to investors on Wall Street, consumer attorneys later alleged, someone at Ameriquest falsified Pittman's income on the mortgage application. At best, she had an income of $1,600 a month—roughly $1,000 from Social Security and, when he could afford to pay, another $600 a month in rent from her son. Ameriquest's paperwork claimed she brought in more than twice that much—$3,700 a month.

    The new deal left her with a house payment of $1,069 a month—nearly all of her monthly income and twice what she'd been paying on the FHA loan before Ameriquest and Long Beach hustled her through the series of refinancings. She was shocked when she realized she was required to pay more than $1,000 a month on her mortgage. "That broke my heart," she said.

    For Ameriquest, the fact that Pittman couldn't afford the payments was of little consequence. Her loan was quickly pooled, with more than fifteen thousand other Ameriquest loans from around the country, into a $2.4 billion "mortgage-backed securities" deal known as Ameriquest Mortgage Securities, Inc. Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates 2004-R7. The deal had been put together by a trio of the world's largest investment banks: UBS, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. These banks oversaw the accounting wizardry that transformed Pittman's mortgage and thousands of other subprime loans into investments sought after by some of the world's biggest investors. Slices of 2004-R7 got snapped up by giants such as the insurer MassMutual and Legg Mason, a mutual fund manager with clients in more than seventy-five countries. Also among the buyers was the investment bank Morgan Stanley, which purchased some of the securities and placed them in its Limited Duration Investment Fund, mixing them with investments in General Mills, FedEx, JC Penney, Harley-Davidson, and other household names.

    It was the new way of Wall Street. The loan on Carolyn Pittman's one-story house in Atlantic Beach was now part of the great global mortgage machine. It helped swell the portfolios of big-time speculators and middle-class investors looking to build a nest egg for retirement. And, in doing so, it helped fuel the mortgage empire that in 2004 produced $1.3 billion in profits for Roland Arnall.

    In the first years of the twenty-first century, Ameriquest Mortgage unleashed an army of salespeople on America. They numbered in the thousands. They were young, hungry, and relentless in their drive to sell loans and earn big commissions. One Ameriquest manager summed things up in an e-mail to his sales force: "We are all here to make as much fucking money as possible. Bottom line. Nothing else matters." Home owners like Carolyn Pittman were caught up in Ameriquest's push to become the nation's biggest subprime lender.

    The pressure to produce an ever-growing volume of loans came from the top. Executives at Ameriquest's home office in Orange County leaned on the regional and area managers; the regional and area managers leaned on the branch managers. And the branch managers leaned on the salesmen who worked the phones and hunted for borrowers willing to sign on to Ameriquest loans. Men usually ran things, and a frat-house mentality ruled, with plenty of partying and testosterone-fueled swagger. "It was like college, but with lots of money and power," Travis Paules, a former Ameriquest executive, said. Paules liked to hire strippers to reward his sales reps for working well after midnight to get loan deals processed during the end-of-the-month rush. At Ameriquest branches around the nation, loan officers worked ten- and twelve-hour days punctuated by "Power Hours"—do-or-die telemarketing sessions aimed at sniffing out borrowers and separating the real salesmen from the washouts. At the branch where Mark Bomchill worked in suburban Minneapolis, management expected Bomchill and other loan officers to make one hundred to two hundred sales calls a day. One manager, Bomchill said, prowled the aisles between desks like "a little Hitler," hounding salesmen to make more calls and sell more loans and bragging he hired and fired people so fast that one peon would be cleaning out his desk as his replacement came through the door.As with Mark Glover in Los Angeles, experience in the mortgage business wasn't a prerequisite for getting hired. Former employees said the company preferred to hire younger, inexperienced workers because it was easier to train them to do things the Ameriquest way. A former loan officer who worked for Ameriquest in Michigan described the company's business model this way: "People entrusting their entire home and everything they've worked for in their life to people who have just walked in off the street and don't know anything about mortgages and are trying to do anything they can to take advantage of them."

    Ameriquest was not alone. Other companies, eager to get a piece of the market for high-profit loans, copied its methods, setting up shop in Orange County and helping to transform the county into the Silicon Valley of subprime lending. With big investors willing to pay top dollar for assets backed by this new breed of mortgages, the push to make more and more loans reached a frenzy among the county's subprime loan shops. "The atmosphere was like this giant cocaine party you see on TV," said Sylvia Vega-Sutfin, who worked as an account executive at BNC Mortgage, a fast-growing operation headquartered in Orange County just down the Costa Mesa Freeway from Ameriquest's headquarters. "It was like this giant rush of urgency." One manager told Vega-Sutfin and her coworkers that there was no turning back; he had no choice but to push for mind-blowing production numbers. "I have to close thirty loans a month," he said, "because that's what my family's lifestyle demands."

    Michelle Seymour, one of Vega-Sutfin's colleagues, spotted her first suspect loan days after she began working as a mortgage underwriter at BNC's Sacramento branch in early 2005. The documents in the file indicated the borrower was making a six-figure salary coordinating dances at a Mexican restaurant. All the numbers on the borrower's W-2 tax form ended in zeros—an unlikely happenstance—and the Social Security and tax bite didn't match the borrower's income. When Seymour complained to a manager, she said, he was blasĂ©, telling her, "It takes a lot to have a loan declined."

    BNC was no fly-by-night operation. It was owned by one of Wall Street's most storied investment banks, Lehman Brothers. The bank had made a big bet on housing and mortgages, styling itself as a player in commercial real estate and, especially, subprime lending. "In the mortgage business, we used to say, 'All roads lead to Lehman,' " one industry veteran recalled.Lehman had bought a stake in BNC in 2000 and had taken full ownership in 2004, figuring it could earn even more money in the subprime business by cutting out the middleman. Wall Street bankers and investors flocked to the loans produced by BNC, Ameriquest, and other subprime operators; the steep fees and interest rates extracted from borrowers allowed the bankers to charge fat commissions for packaging the securities and provided generous yields for investors who purchased them. Up-front fees on subprime loans totaled thousands of dollars. Interest rates often started out deceptively low—perhaps at 7 or 8 percent—but they almost always adjusted upward, rising to 10 percent, 12 percent, and beyond. When their rates spiked, borrowers' monthly payments increased, too, often climbing by hundreds of dollars. Borrowers who tried to escape overpriced loans by refinancing into another mortgage usually found themselves paying thousands of dollars more in backend fees—"prepayment penalties" that punished them for paying off their loans early. Millions of these loans—tied to modest homes in places like Atlantic Beach, Florida; Saginaw, Michigan; and East San Jose, California—helped generate great fortunes for financiers and investors. They also helped lay America's economy low and sparked a worldwide financial crisis.

    The subprime market did not cause the U.S. and global financial meltdowns by itself. Other varieties of home loans and a host of arcane financial innovations—such as collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps—also came into play. Nevertheless, subprime played a central role in the debacle. It served as an early proving ground for financial engineers who sold investors and regulators alike on the idea that it was possible, through accounting alchemy, to turn risky assets into "Triple-A-rated" securities that were nearly as safe as government bonds. In turn, financial wizards making bets with CDOs and credit default swaps used subprime mortgages as the raw material for their speculations. Subprime, as one market watcher said, was "the leading edge of a financial hurricane."

    This book tells the story of the rise and fall of subprime by chronicling the rise and fall of two corporate empires: Ameriquest and Lehman Brothers. It is a story about the melding of two financial cultures separated by a continent: Orange County and Wall Street.

    Ameriquest and its strongest competitors in subprime had their roots in Orange County, a sunny land of beauty and wealth that has a history as a breeding ground for white-collar crime: boiler rooms, S&L frauds, real-estate swindles. That history made it an ideal setting for launching the subprime industry, which grew in large measure thanks to bait-and-switch salesmanship and garden-variety deception. By the height of the nation's mortgage boom, Orange County was home to four of the nation's six biggest subprime lenders. Together, these four lenders—Ameriquest, Option One, Fremont Investment & Loan, and New Century—accounted for nearly a third of the subprime market. Other subprime shops, too, sprung up throughout the county, many of them started by former employees of Ameriquest and its corporate forebears, Long Beach Savings and Long Beach Mortgage.

    Lehman Brothers was, of course, one of the most important institutions on Wall Street, a firm with a rich history dating to before the Civil War. Under its pugnacious CEO, Richard Fuld, Lehman helped bankroll many of the nation's shadiest subprime lenders, including Ameriquest. "Lehman never saw a subprime lender they didn't like," one consumer lawyer who fought the industry's abuses said.Lehman and other Wall Street powers provided the financial backing and sheen of respectability that transformed subprime from a tiny corner of the mortgage market into an economic behemoth capable of triggering the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

    A long list of mortgage entrepreneurs and Wall Street bankers cultivated the tactics that fueled subprime's growth and its collapse, and a succession of politicians and regulators looked the other way as abuses flourished and the nation lurched toward disaster: Angelo Mozilo and Countrywide Financial; Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo; Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve; and many more. Still, no Wall Street firm did more than Lehman to create the subprime monster. And no figure or institution did more to bring subprime's abuses to life across the nation than Roland Arnall and Ameriquest.

    Among his employees, subprime's founding father was feared and admired. He was a figure of rumor and speculation, a mysterious billionaire with a rags-to-riches backstory, a hardscrabble street vendor who reinvented himself as a big-time real-estate developer, a corporate titan, a friend to many of the nation's most powerful elected leaders. He was a man driven, according to some who knew him, by a desire to conquer and dominate. "Roland could be the biggest bastard in the world and the most charming guy in the world," said one executive who worked for Arnall in subprime's early days. "And it could be minutes apart."He displayed his charm to people who had the power to help him or hurt him. He cultivated friendships with politicians as well as civil rights advocates and antipoverty crusaders who might be hostile to the unconventional loans his companies sold in minority and working-class neighborhoods. Many people who knew him saw him as a visionary, a humanitarian, a friend to the needy. "Roland was one of the most generous people I have ever met," a former business partner said.He also left behind, as another former associate put it, "a trail of bodies"—a succession of employees, friends, relatives, and business partners who said he had betrayed them. In summing up his own split with Arnall, his best friend and longtime business partner said, "I was screwed."Another former colleague, a man who helped Arnall give birth to the modern subprime mortgage industry, said: "Deep down inside he was a good man. But he had an evil side. When he pulled that out, it was bad. He could be extremely cruel." When they parted ways, he said, Arnall hadn't paid him all the money he was owed. But, he noted, Arnall hadn't cheated him as badly as he could have. "He fucked me. But within reason."

    Roland Arnall built a company that became a household name, but shunned the limelight for himself. The business partner who said Arnall had "screwed" him recalled that Arnall fancied himself a puppet master who manipulated great wealth and controlled a network of confederates to perform his bidding. Another former business associate, an underling who admired him, explained that Arnall worked to ingratiate himself to fair-lending activists for a simple reason: "You can take that straight out of The Godfather: 'Keep your enemies close.' "

    Excerpted from The Monster by Michael W. Hudson
    Copyright 2010 by Michael W. Hudson
    Published in 2010 by Times Books/Henry Holt and Company

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Saturday, October 16, 2010

Inflation... and Realtor 'Incentive'

On the right side of this blog some of you will have noticed that under the spot price of Gold and Silver, there is a chart called the US Dollar Index.

This index measures the strength of the US Dollar. A few weeks ago it was up over 80. This week it slid below 77 - which is big news.

It's indicative of a weakening US Dollar.

Perhaps at work you know some co-workers who this week are all giddy that the Canadian Dollar and the US Dollar moved to parity. Some, no doubt, rushed out to exchange loonies for greenbacks for upcoming trips to Vegas or other locals south of the border.

It's not so much a testament to the strength of the loonie, but it owes more to the weakening of the US Dollar.

Such developments are a big concern to OPEC. The oil producing Arab nations trade oil in US Dollars. And a weakening US Dollar means they are getting less for the same amount of product.

"The U.S. currency’s weakness means the 'real price' of oil is about $20 less than current levels," said Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez after yesterday’s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna.

Their response?

The OPEC nations want to push the price of oil from the current $80 to $100 to offset the declining value of the dollar.

And since the Canadian Dollar is at par with the American Dollar, it means you and I will also feel this 20% increase in the cost of everything oil related - which is just about every aspect of our lives.

This is another example of currency induced cost push inflation at work.

'Real' inflation last month raged at 8.5%. Look for it to accelerate in the coming months.

Vancouver Real Estate

As we noted earlier this week, the slow melt is meeting the winter freeze and the chilling sales climate will clash with stubborn sellers in a stalemate which will probably last until spring.

Come springtime many observers believe you will start to see sellers move on their prices and the decline will finally start.

And a primary impetus that will push the stubborn sellers to move on their asking price will be Realtors.

This month BCREA's pumper-in-chief, Cameron Muir, has made much of the declining numbers of listings on the market. He pumps this as a move to a 'more balanced market'.

Through the late summer and early fall, many owners have tested the market waters. They put properties on the market, only to remove them when buyer interest proved to be reduced. Many of these owners plan to put those same properties back on the market and many will likely do so in spring of 2011

As our friends over at VREAA have noted these sellers will be re-entering a market in which local Realtors has seen sales (and by 'sales' we actually mean to say 'commissions') have been at 10 - 15 year lows.

There are a great many Realtors feeling an income pinch right now, a situation which will be greatly exacerbated come Spring 2011.

As VREAA notes,

  • Sales are down year-over-year in the lower mainland, in some areas of BC they are down as much as 50%. There are twice as many Realtors in BC now than there were 10 years ago, and they are now competing for a shrinking pie. In many markets we are seeing Realtors talk about the importance of ‘sharp pricing’. They are applying pressure on sellers to drop prices to points at which they meet buyers. They are a force against the ‘sticky pricing’ that is characteristic of this stage of a bubble burst.

Look for this pressure to be severely ramped up when many of these sellers return to the market in Spring 2011.

Many observers anticipate ongoing minor price drops through October, November and December. Then, in the first half of 2011, you will probably start to see significant changes.

Speculators, boomers, foreign holders, overextended locals and developers will all come to the market and be met by hungry Realtors desperate for income after 8-10 months of the worst sales in over a decade.

Eager to close deals at almost any price, significant pressure will be exerted to speed the price decline.

It could be an intense spring.

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Thursday, August 5, 2010

I light a fire...

Faithful readers know that in the inflation/deflation debate I side solidly on the side of looming inflation.

We may go through a period of deflation first... but inflation is coming: guaranteed.

That's why I note today's decision by the Bank of England to keep interest rates at historic lows.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has announced he is setting aside his inflation target to protect the economy from the biggest budget cuts since World War II.

And this action is taken as a split widens on the nine-member British Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the danger posed by rising prices. Resisting calls to increase interest rates, King insists it may be a “considerable” time before the benchmark interest rate of 0.5 percent returns to “normal.”

Prices continue to rise in England and King is tolerating faster inflation as Prime Minister David Cameron’s push to slash the Group of 20’s largest budget deficit threatens to hurt the economic recovery. Policy maker Andrew Sentance, for now the only advocate of higher rates, counters that growth is solid enough for the bank to withdraw emergency stimulus.

Inflation has exceeded the bank’s 2% target since December.

“King is willing to take risks with inflation,” said Steven Bell, chief economist at London-based hedge fund GLC Ltd. and a former U.K. Treasury official.

The combination of persistent inflation and budget cuts has widened the debate about when to raise rates in England.

Sentance voted for higher rates at the last two meetings of the MPC. And while there are calls for the central bank to be “incredibly vigilant” on prices, inflation was allowed to rise to 3.2% in June and has exceeded the government’s 3% limit since March.

King said last week the rate is likely to stay above the bank’s target “for much of next year”. King “sees no need to try and offset what is likely to be rather a temporary continuing overshoot,” said former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart.

Fears of continued recession have economists and central bankers eager to ignite inflation and King's actions are sure to be echoed in North America.

Goodhart says officials may find it hard to justify their actions after a “pretty poor” forecasting record in the past two years.

With the inflation overshoot set to persist. Goodhart make an interesting observation.

“In a sense we’re in the worst possible situation, with inflation above target and output growth well under target.”

Meanwhile, on the real estate front in Vancouver

Check out this Global TV clip on the declining real estate sales environment.

How desperate is the climate getting in the industry?

At the end of the clip we have our favorite downtown huckster, Ian Watt, actively encouraging buyers to start pitching low ball offers to undercut asking prices.

Will wonders ever cease?

(hat tip to Observer in yesterday's comments)

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Monday, August 2, 2010

A stunning statement by Greenspan

Local blogs continue to ruminate on the pending release this week of the R/E sales statistics for the month of July.

(And for those who are interested in such numbers there is a breakdown at the bottom of this post of the Unit sales per municipality and the percentage drop experienced from July 2009 vs July 2010)

But there was something mentioned on Sunday morning political TV that will ultimately impact Vancouver Real Estate far more profoundly than the start of this current downward trend.

For those of you who believe interest rates will never rise again because the government will not allow it - heed these words of former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan;

"There is no doubt that the federal funds rate can be fixed at what the Fed wants it to be but what the government has no control over is long-term interest rates and long-term interest rates are what make the economy move. And if this budget problem eventually merges to the point where it begins to become very toxic, it will be reflected in rising long-term interest rates, rising mortgage rates, lower housing. At the moment there is no sign of that because the financial system is broke and you can not have inflation if the financial system is not working."

In other words, we will be in deflation until the broken financial system is unbroken. And when it does start to repair - look out - because we will then have severe inflation.

And THAT will make this months declining sales numbers look like a selling bonanza.

You can see the Greenspan clip here.

For those are interested, statistics by area from the same source as yesterday:

Real Estate Unit sales comparing July 2009 to 2010

Burnaby East: -64% (57 to 20)
Burnaby North: -47% (215 to 112)
Burnaby South: -52% (257 to 123)
Coquitlam: -45% (304 to 166)
Islands-Van. & Gulf: -75% (12 to 3)
Ladner: -77% (79 - 18)
Maple Ridge: -36% (215 to 136)
New Westminster: -52% (170 to 80)
North Vancouver: -42% (273 to 158)
Pitt Meadows: -46% (41 to 22)
Port Coquitlam: -50% (152 to 75)
Port Moody: -47% (119 to 62)
Richmond: -53% (632 to 292)
Squamish: -3% (31 to 30)
Tsawwassen: -56% (55 to 24)
Vancouver East: -42% (461 to 267)
Vancouver West: -37% (880 to 553)
West Vancouver: -20% (97 to 77)
Whistler: -45% (35 to 19)

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Monday, May 3, 2010

The Swirling Winds

Hi Gang.

Sorry for the lack of posts recently. Tax week combined with other matters have kept me busy.

Sovereign debt remains front and center on the world stage and the concern is gaining momentum.

As I have stated over and over again, we still do not fully understand the depth and breadth of the financial earthquake that rocked our financial system in 2008.

Even now, a year and a half later, we still do not realize it's significance.

It has been downplayed so much that the average person is completely oblivious in Canada to what is going on.

I note with keen interest that there were another 7 bank failure in the US on the most recent 'Bank Failure Friday'. And despite the almost complete lack of press coverage, last week's losses were extremely serious. They were the largest in any single week since the failure of IndyMac Bank on July 11, 2008.

IndyMac had assets of about $32 billion and deposits of $19 billion. Its failure cost the FDIC an estimated $8 billion.

The seven banks that failed this week had combined assets of about $25.8 billion and deposits of $19.6 billion. These failures cost the FDIC an estimated $7.33 billion.

Prior to this week, the FDIC’s estimated losses from 57 bank failures in 2010 stood at about $8.6 billion. This week’s failures practically doubled that figure, to $15.93 billion.

According to an AP article posted Friday, the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund “fell into the red last year, hitting a $20.9 billion deficit as of [Dec. 31, 2009].” With this year’s losses, the fund’s deficit has grown to at least $36.8 billion. In addition, the FDIC has a huge exposure for worse-than-expected losses on some $165 billion of assets taken over by acquiring banks.

That pretty much wipes out the $45 billion the FDIC announced it was going to raise by requiring banks to pre-pay premiums for the period, 2010 through 2012. Obligations of the FDIC will soon become obligations of the U.S. taxpayer, adding billions of dollars each year to already out-of-control federal deficits.

Speaking of out of control sovereign debt, I notice that Warren Buffett has finally broken his 'everything will be alright' facade and is now acknowledging what is coming.

From the article: "The financial crisis was stemmed by massive monetary and fiscal intervention in developed economies like the U.S. and the U.K. That's shifted a private-sector debt mountain on to governments, increasing concern about sovereign risks. One concern is that governments will print lots of new money to pay debts, undermining the value of currencies and triggering a damaging bout of inflation. 'Events in the world over the last few years make me more bearish on all currencies in terms of holding their value over time,' Buffett said."

Interest rates and inflation: the watch words of the next 10 - 15 years.

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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Blissful Ignorance?

On a day when the Bank of Canada makes news for what it doesn't say, and Macleans magazine states the obvious, the item that catches my eye is a poll by the Investors Group which concludes that Canadians "may be overly confident that they can take higher borrowing costs in stride."

You got that one right!

Discussing Canadians' apparent confidence to deal with rising mortgage rates, Peter Veselinovich (the Investors Group's vice-president of banking and mortgage operations) said: "Part of that may be because they are fully knowledgeable about what's going on because they have a financial plan, they've had discussions, they've looked at what their risk tolerance is and what their affordability tolerances are. Or part of it may be some blissful lack of knowledge."

The reason for the overconfidence/blissful ignorance?

No one believes rates will rise more that about 3%.

This also comes on the day we learn that, in the UK, inflation rose at a higher rate than expected. It's up sharply to 3.4% in March from 3% the month before.

Watch for a similar scenario to start becoming evident in North America as well. As we pointed out last week, reports are surfacing that significant inflation is working it's way through the inventory replacement process.

After summarizing his experiences, one volume importer of industrial hardware (mostly out of Asia), who just received his April ocean freight rate update, concluded that "anyone who tells me that there is no inflation on the horizon is delusional and in for one hell of a shock.”

That's going to be pretty much every person with a mortgage in this country.

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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Ferris... the miles aren't coming off!

Last week I started to talk about how I believe the stage is being set for a Canadian real estate collapse of historic and massive proportions.

Since the collapse of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, western governments have manipulated economic conditions so that we moved quickly from the unwinding of one bubble and into another.

Within a year of the collapse of the Internet Bubble, we moved seamlessly into the Real Estate Bubble. And within a year of the collapse of the Real Estate Bubble we have moved into another bubble… and it’s as if nobody can see that there are any similarities.

The only reason it worked in 2000 (and it didn’t really work then), is because we were able to borrow the money from the rest of the world and spend it. And we were able to live in the delusion that we were getting richer even when we were getting poorer.

We believed this because we looked at our asset prices (real estate and stocks) and we saw the prices going up and we said “hey, were actually getting wealthier”.

But we weren’t getting richer because we were spending money at the same time instead of saving money. We would borrow on the asset value and spend it consuming. And as we spent money, the government counted that money as GDP.

And as long as our GDP was rising then we thought our economy was growing.

But the whole time our GDP was going up, we weren’t measuring how much our wealth was going up. We thought we were okay because some appraiser said that our house was worth more. Or the stock market was still going up.

The 2008 Financial Crisis was simply the inevitable collapse of this ponzi mindset.

But when that collapse happened, it was SO intense…. SO profound... that our political masters panicked.

What happened in September and October 2008 had previously been considered completely impossible and totally unthinkable. We have always been told that the lessons of 1929 and the Great Depression had resulted in changes to the financial system so that NEVER AGAIN could the financial system come close to totally collapsing.

Yet we were within two hours of a complete collapse of our banking system and of our economy... and governments responded with panic measures.

They responded the same way they did each time there was a ‘financial emergency’ over the past several decades... with stimulus money and bailouts. Only this time they did it on a scale that has never been seen in the history of the world.

  • In the 1990s the US Federal Reserve had been too easy and loose with money. Interest rates were too low and we created too much money. And that facilitated massive investments in the stock market.
  • This created the 1997-1999 NASDAQ bubble. When that market crashed the government responded with even lower interest rates and easier access to stimulus money.
  • And the exact thing that had happened with the Internet Bubble... now starts occurring with real estate.

We had the internet bubble because the US Federal Reserve was too easy with money.

Easy money allowed people to invest in companies that were tremendously overvalued. None of the dot.com stocks were paying dividends because none of the companies had a realistic chance of making money. But it didn’t matter. The frenzy was pushing stock prices up so people grabbed all the money they could and kept investing in them.

Recognizing what was going on, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sought to intervene. In 1996 he talked about irrational exuberance and they took him to the woodshed for saying something negative. But he still went ahead and raised interest rates to correct the imbalance.

And the bubble burst.

Of course, when the stock market crashed, a lot of the malinvestments were exposed. A lot of the people working at the dot.com’s were going to have to be unemployed. A lot of companies who were given a lot of capital who shouldn’t have been given capital, were going to lose it all. And a lot of investors who invested foolishly who were going to lose a lot of money.

We were destined for a long, painful recession. Those malinvestments were going to have to be worked off. Capital would have to be reallocated to where it could be productively used, and labour would have to be laid off and rehired as that capital found productive uses.

As painful as it might be, it would be a necessary recesiion; the free market's way of correcting the imbalances.

But government intervened in the free market.

Rather than permit the painful process to play out, government would ‘stimulate’ the economy... again.

As always, the stimulus money created a catastrophe. This time in real estate.

During the dot-com, if you questioned the wisdom of what was happening, the reply was always, ‘you don’t understand the stock market’. Now, when anyone questioned the wisdom of what was happening in real estate, the reply was, ‘you don’t understand the real estate market’.

People were told rents don’t matter to real estate in the same way they said dividends don’t matter to stocks. What evolved was a rationalization that said all real estate would appreciate, year after year, for no other reason than a belief that real estate appreciates.

Everyone bought into the idea that it was going to go up... year after year... just because.

And it made no sense. Were incomes going up each year? Would you be able to charge 10, 20, 30 percent higher rents each year? No? Then why is the value going to go up 10, 20, 30 percent?

And the answer was... ‘it just will’.

And for the last nine years it has, fueled by easy money which is being invested in something that does not make fiscal sense – other than the value of the ‘asset’ seems to be rising by 10 – 30% each year.

The real estate bubble, and the financial services industry it created, has grown stupendously out of proportion.

The 2008 Financial Crisis is a result of the stimulus that created the dot-com bubble, the stimulus that tried to prevent the correcting of the dot-com bubble and the real estate bubble it all created.

A long, painful recession is needed to correct the imbalances.

But by responding in the same egregious manner to the 2008 Financial crisis, another catastrophe is inevitable.

Not only have we failed to correct the imbalances, western governments have liquefyed the system beyond any rational explanation in response to fears the entire system could collapse.

In the United States, the U.S. money supply has been expanding at an absolutely unprecedented rate (more than doubling the monetary base since the collapse of Lehman Brothers).

Fears of inflation – even hyperinflation – have been propagated throughout the blogosphere.

So why are we not experiencing rampant inflation?

Why is the U.S. dollar not falling through the floor?

Well, the truth is that all of this new money has gotten into the U.S. financial system but it is not getting into the hands of U.S. businesses and consumers. In fact, even though the money supply is exploding, U.S. banks have dramatically decreased lending. This has brought us to a very bizarre financial situation.

What we have seen is the U.S. government shovel massive amounts of cash into the U.S. financial system and then watch as the big banks sit on that cash and refuse to lend it. The biggest banks in the U.S. reduced their collective small business lending balance by another 1 billion dollars in November 2009.

That drop was the seventh monthly decline in a row. In fact, in 2009 as a whole U.S. banks posted their sharpest decline in lending since 1942.

So all of this money that the U.S. government pumped into the financial system has been doing American businesses and consumers very little good. That is why we can have a vastly increased money supply and very little inflation.

So if the banks are not lending the money to the American people, what are they doing with it?

One of the things they are doing with it is buying U.S. government debt. While U.S. banks have cut business lending by approximately 350 billion dollars since early 2009, they have meanwhile been purchasing approximately 300 billion dollars worth of U.S. Treasury securities.

So instead of loaning money to American businesses and consumers who desperately need it, a ton of this new money is being used to pump up yet another bubble. This time the bubble is in U.S. Treasuries. Asia Times recently described how this trillion-dollar carry trade in U.S. government securities works...

  • Remarkably, the most aggressive buyers of US government debt during the past several months have been global banks domiciled in London and the Cayman Islands. They borrow at 20 basis points (a fifth of a percentage point) and buy Treasury securities paying 1% to 3%, depending on maturity. This is the famous "carry trade", by which banks or hedge funds borrow short-term at a very low rate and lend medium- or long-term at a higher rate. This works as long as short-tem rates remain extremely low. The moment that borrowing costs begin to rise, the trillion-dollar carry trade in US government securities will collapse.

Anyone who has dealt with carry trades in the past knows that when carry trades unwind they can do so very, very quickly and the results can be nightmarish.

And this one will unwind too, causing the bubble it is supporting (US Treasuries) to collapse.

You’ve heard it said that doctors 'practice' medicine and lawyers 'practice' law?

They say this for a reason. These 'professionals' never really know their craft. They learn about past mistakes and try to utilize tried techniques to address problems. When something goes wrong, they learn from it and ‘tweak’ their responses.

It is no different for economists, even those entrusted with running the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve (recall Saturday’s post of a paper by Alan Greenspan admitting how the Federal Reserve had failed).

The ‘experts’ panicked when the crisis of 2008 hit.

And they responded with tried techniques (plus a few new tricks) to address the problem.

The truth is that the U.S. financial system is a house of cards that could fall at any time. A lot of economic pain is on the horizon - it is only a matter of when it comes and how bad it is going to get.

And when it does come, interest rates are going to shoot up like nothing we have seen in over 30 years.

Tomorrow, the reckoning that Canada faces.

To read the next part of our series, click here.

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