Friday, December 10, 2010

A significant day of reckoning is coming.

If you ever have any doubts about what looms on the horizon in the months ahead for Vancouver Real Estate (in general) and the North America economy (in particular), bookmark today's post and refer back to it.

Last week, after the U.S. debt panel failed to agree on measures to create more than $4 trillion in budget cuts over the next 10 years, BNN spoke to David Stockman, the former Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.

If there ever was a proponent of the current measures to repair the American economy, you would figure an architect of Reagan's trickle down economics would be it.

You'd be dead wrong.

Stockman spoke about the American situation and where America goes from here. He has a stark analysis of his country's situation.

You will not find a more succinct and insightful analysis of the current economic situation in 12 minutes anywhere. Click here to see the interview, and I highly encourage you to watch the full clip before it cycles off BNN's archive list.

You will have no doubt, after watching this, about the direction that the economy will ultimately follow.

A couple of quickly transcribed excerpts:

  • "It's just a further confirmation that we have a total paralysis/stalemate in our fiscal governance process, the whole process is in denial... What is actually happening is that Washington will be ADDING $350 Billion to next year's deficit (instead of cutting). They will extend the Bush tax cuts, they are going to extend the so called external tax patch - that's $60 Billion - they're going to extend a lot of the tax credits - that's 10's of Billions of dollars - what's more they're going to extend unemployment insurance for another year - that's another $60 Billion... and it gets worse from there.

    We're really rolling the dice thinking that somehow we can borrow another $5-6 Trillion - that's really what's baked in the cake - and that somebody's going to buy all these bonds. The fact is the only buyer on margin all of these bonds, hundreds of billions a month, is the Federal Reserve, in this so-called QE2. But it's just out and out money printing, monetization, and when they stop I think there is going to be a real day of reckoning in the global bond and currency markets because there is no indication anyone in Washington recognizes the gravity of the situation."

Stockman goes on the suggest both the Democrats and Republicans are completely unable to grapple with the breadth and depth of cuts that are needed combined with the massive amount of taxes that have to be increased. As a result America is...

  • "... drifting towards the wall waiting for the bond market system to wake up and take action. I don't know when that is going to happen, it may be in the next months, it may be in the next years, it may take longer but sooner or later there is going to be a day of reckoning."

Stockman then discounts those who believe the Reagan era of 'trickle down economics' is a solution to the current problem.

  • "I think the Fed went off the deep end in the 90s and especially in the last 4 or 5 years with very easy monetary policy of low, low interest rates that were inappropriate and encouraged businesses and the household sector to massively leverage up, that led to the crisis in 2008 and we're still only begining to dig our way out of that... We're going to have a significant day of reckoning here, there is no recovery."

The most chilling part is Stockman's assertion that the bond market is going to force America's hand before long.

As I said yesterday, this is EXACTLY the fear expressed by former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

We are seeing the effects of what happens when the bond market does this. Just look at Ireland, Iceland, Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Are you ready for double digit interest rates yet? They're coming.

Of course naysayers will simply dismiss this as yet another post from a disgruntled bear blogger fearmongering about interest rates.

Hey... speaking of fearmongering about interest rates, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney sent out another warning to Canadians yesterday.

In the December issue of its Financial System Review, the Bank of Canada warned Thursday that the risk of another global economic shock is rising and Canadians may not be prepared for it.

And in a veiled hint that the Bank of Canada won't shield Canadians they way they did after the 2008 crisis, the Bank said "Canadians won't be spared another shock because during the current period of tough economic times, they have continued to take on debt."

How can that be, Mr. Carney? How could be possibly suffer? I mean... you will slash interest rates to dirt so the impact won't be felt, right?

Apparently not.

  • "Developments since (June) suggest that the vulnerability of the Canadian household sector has increased."

    "The probability of an adverse labour market shock materializing is judged to have edged higher in recent months, owing to the downward revision... to the outlook for the global and Canadian economies."

Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said in a commentary the review suggests the bank won't resume increasing rates until the global economy picks up and Europe's credit crisis ebbs.

  • "However the bank is also cognizant of the risk to household finances (and the economy) of keeping rates too low for too long. This suggests it has every intention of guiding rates back toward more normal levels at the earliest opportunity, which in our view, is likely in May."

Hiking interest rates come May? Is this why Carney issues another direct warning to Canadians by saying:

  • “Households bear ultimate responsibility for ensuring that they will be able to service that debt in the future.”

Umm... why do you say that Mark? Are you getting ready to hand us debt serfs out to dry?

What about our 'sound Canadian banks', if I can't pay my debts, won't that hurt them?

Well it seems the BOC goes to great lengths to warn that the potential for harm to our 'sound banks' this time around might be severe.

Carney suggests that high household debt this time around is going to get kicked by high interest rates. This will affect Canada's banks 'as borrowers lose their ability to make debt payments.'

Now why would Carney hike interest rates this time around when he didn't in the last crisis?

The source of the problems all stem from from other countries, the bank said.

(Ahhh... time to start connecting the dots... see Stockman's comments above re: bond vigilantes wrath being unleashed on the United States)

The BOC forsee's the very real possiblity of a global trade war. It also foresee's the looming threat of much higher interest rates.

Carney see's them coming. He's warned you time after time and given you almost a year's advance warning.

The good news?

Re/Max was far more effective in manipulating the P/R machine two days ago and got far more coverage in the press to convinced you that Real Estate everywhere in Canada can only go up, up up (at least 10% next year) and that interest rates are going to stay low for a while.

Thus, if you are smart, it should be easy to dump your massively leveraged real estate on some simpleton or wealthy Asian and prepare for what's coming.

Speaking of what's coming, did you catch this Globe and Mail article profiling the musings of Stephen Jarislowsky, billionaire investor and CEO of Montreal-based Jarislowsky Fraser Ltd?

Jarislowsky offered his thoughts on the next lurking financial disaster.

  • "In Canada the hardship still lies ahead. Our houses are still 20 to 30 per cent above normal levels, salaries are shrinking and a lot of Canadians are heavily indebted. There’s a lurking disaster, to the extent that you have reduction of purchasing power and we are just not saving hardly anything as a nation. That’s pretty bearish. I think things are going to get a hell of a lot worse. We still have a trade deficit today despite the fact that commodity prices are incredibly high. I hope I’m wrong but I think Canada is on the edge of a lot of trouble."

What drivel, eh?

You can either connect the dots or you can dismiss Stockman, Carney and Jarislowsky et al as wanker renters who live in their parents basements while hiding behind their computers to dump on real estate investors.

If you do dismiss them, tho, don't say you weren't warned.

And remember... buy now or be priced out forever!



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1 comment:

  1. Now this is some real news, not mainstream (propaganda) news.