Saturday, November 3, 2012

A New Boom? Or an appeal to greed from an angry shyster?

Interesting tidbit in the Wall Street Journal the other day.

The WSJ was chronicling the plunge in Vancouver home sales. At the end of the article Flaherty is quoted commenting on the impact on house sale.

As the Journal analyzed the Vancouver situation, they observed:
There are several factors slowing the market. The Canadian economy has slowed along with the rest of the developed world. But a series of recent policy changes enacted by the federal government in Ottawa have had the most impact, according to Realtors, marketers, lawyers and bankers. 
This summer, Canada's immigration minister temporarily froze two programs for immigrants: the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Immigrant Investor Program. The latter program grants citizenship in five years to qualified immigrants who agree to invest at least C$800,000 in Canada. Real-estate agents said the freeze, which ends in January, has slowed buying from Chinese.
 Will the end of this freeze lead to another resurgent boom in Vancouver Real Estate?

Over on the VCI blog there have been a string of angry comments from the contributor IamTheChipman.

In one Chipman says:
You Shitbirds will be disappointed yet again. 
The WSJ article highlights how the Canadian immigration rules will change again in January. Watch houses in Richmond and the Westside EXPLODE higher. 
Can’t you read the tea leaves when it’s that EASY! 
I’d be buying now and flipping in a handful of months, if you did this with a few properties you could easily score a million or more in 5-7 months with perhaps 10-15 hours of total effort. 
Yes, I know for the average goofball on this blog that’s chump change, but for the rest of us mere millionaires it’s a decent return on our capital. Your invited to the party, all you have to do is say yes.
One thing that has always perplexed me is why contributors like him bother with the effort.

I mean let's face it.  When someone has opportunities to flip for sure fire gains, they are out making the purchases. Then they sell, realize the profit and look for another opportunity.

One thing they don't do it is waste time posting to a blog that is primarily focused on the complete opposite of what they are advocating in the hopes they will convince someone to go against the grain and buy.

So why make the post?

I think the likes of IamTheChipman are worked up because so many people are now reading blogs like VCI, and are finding strength in the message being conveyed.

They post as a way to vent their anger at that message.

I have a feeling the market's changing dynamics have a lot of people on edge,

We can read the tea leaves and - yes Mr. Chipman - it is that easy. I think we will say, "no thanks."

The real question is, why does it bother you so?


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  1. Last night I was at Bubble World in Richmond. I was sitting beside a table with some HAM people and they were discussing some sort of real estate properties. A man (I believe is a Chinese realtor) was showing some properties to his clients. Our real estate is considered a bargain for the HAM. In Shenzen and Shanghai, RE is much more expensive, and you get smaller and not as nice homes. If they continue to come, they will buy. But, is it enough to keep prices high. We will see. Unlikely, but wait and see.

    1. Very unlikely that they will continue to buy when you can live in a warm US city that has a lot more to offer than Vancouver and pay less than half the money for a house.

  2. If you didn't read the tea leaves in 2010-2011 and bought at the high, or are over leveraged right now, you aren't going to be very happy. In fact, you just might be very stressed out knowing you're already underwater and getting deeper every month.
    As for the HAMs and Vancouver being cheap, there are equally beautiful cities in the US which have come down in price and therefore represent a far better investment/value for their money. Vancouver is a falling knife, anyone who buys now, no matter how good a deal they make, will lose money over the next few years.

  3. Chipman is "talking his book". That's all.

  4. These foreign investors will be the first to default and run away.

    1. They usually pay in (corruption) cash and carry no mortgage. The question is the non-HAM. Will they default and run?

  5. Uhm, that's "Iamthechimpman", with an extra "m". The correct response on VCI is to downvote him/her into oblivion. Why would you dignify an obvious troll with a story here?

  6. Attributing the recent slow down in the market to temporary freeze in immigration might be a stretch。 Don't forget Canada is an approved destination for the Chinese which mean they can easily come here as visitors and buy real estate. Further, the Chinese immigrants I know typically come years in advance to scope Canada and buy real estate before their immigration papers are approved. Therefore, to attribute the slow down to the temporary freeze does not make sense.

  7. "Iamthechimpman" is probably a realtor who hasn't made a sale in a few months... :P

  8. According the Citizenship and Immigration Canada website, the Immigrant Investor program mentioned in the post is still suspended until further notice. This Chipman person is either misinformed, or spreading false information.

  9. I am the Chimpman is RJ who is Wow. He actually believes the opposite of what he posts. He's just letting off steam!