Saturday, February 25, 2012

"Officially Time to Panic"

If you click to enlarge the above image, you will see the upcoming March 5, 2012 cover of Maclean's magazine. And if you look below the headline, you can see the sub-heading heralding that it's 'officially time to panic.'

It seems the turnaround is now complete.  

We have gone from only having 'doom-and-gloom' blogs sounding the alarm to the warning signs being everywhere.

Is it time to panic?

Over on the blog Vancouver Condo Info, daily updates are maintained on sales and listings with information provided by a local realtor. And those numbers have been telling an interesting tale since the beginning of the year.

On January 3rd, 2012 there was a total inventory of 10,671 listings.

By February 1, 2012 that number had soared to 13,368.

As of today there are 14,709.

Most of the surge came in January, but the trend has continued in February as listings of properties for sale are far outpacing properties sold. Take a look at data posted so far for the month of February:

Day    Listing Price-Change  Sold  Inventory
Feb 01   305       74          38     13368  
Feb 02   251       64         155     13447
Feb 03   249       56         122     13548
Feb 06   325       82         113     13691
Feb 07   281       70         140     13793
Feb 08   516      138         214     14013
Feb 10   234       63          94     14108
Feb 13   314      106         133     14187
Feb 14   281       85         147     14273
Feb 15   254       60         112     14365
Feb 16   252       94         110     14411
Feb 17   225       84         148     14436
Feb 20   317      133         141     14526
Feb 22   239       96         135     14664
Feb 23   222       67         108     14709

Total inventory has surged from 13,368 to 14,709 in the last 15 business days, growing at about a rate of 90 per day.

Interestingly it doesn't seem that the message is filtering down to the street level yet.

Asking around, my experience is that the average joe is still oblivious to the concerns being expressed in the mainstream media about the Canadian and Vancouver real estate situation.

The Macleans cover calls it a "Real Estate Crisis".

It isn't yet. But I suspect that if (when?) panic does really set in, we will see extraordinary movement - both in those listing numbers and in declining prices on homes that do sell.

At this point events will cascade far faster than even the more ardent bears anticipate.


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  1. It's about time!!!
    This collective denial of reality has been truly amazing.

  2. would be interesting to see if there is a comparable time of having this much inventory came online... and if it "corrected"

  3. I hope friends and family survive this OK.

    As an aside the amount of manipulation is absurd to the point of being a Python sketch. Clearly all the ingredients for the bubble were contrived in the first place (0% - 40 years etc). And now the neolib rag Macleans sets the official date and time of the pop... (lockstep along with Flaherty and Carney

    This whole scheme playing out is a basic transfer of wealth - and easily blamed on a citizenry that "should have known better". Certainly should never have assumed their elected officials were looking after their interests!

  4. Haha you are absolutely right. Even the realtors start to publish articles about the housing crisis (yet only about US) and try to explain what is going on in the market (check this Are Realtors Responsible for the Crisis?).
    Macleans are right now going to publish (after two years of silence) an article about the housing bubble in Canada.
    I´m curious about the next quarter, because I fear the collapse of the market is coming (as those numbers show).

  5. Judging by the numbers, things are already unwinding. By this time in late Feb we should be well underway with the spring market but it doesn't seem to be happening.

  6. Can you imagine this real estate madness if a 10% interest rate arrive after a economic problem.