Back on Saturday we made a post about the surge in Vancouver Real Estate listings inventory and asked what Macleans had stated on their magazine cover: Is it time to panic?
We noted that the blog Vancouver Condo Info was reporting daily updates on sales and listings with information provided by local realtor Paul B.
Those listings numbers have been telling an interesting tale since the beginning of the year.
On January 3rd, 2012 there was a total inventory of 10,671 listings.
By February 1, 2012 that number had soared to 13,368.
As of today we cracked the 15,000 mark with a total of 15,012.
Most of the surge came in January, but the trend has continued in February as listings of properties for sale are far outpacing properties sold. Take a look at data posted so far for in the month of February:
Date Listing Price(+-) Sold Inv Inv(+-) Feb 1 305 74 38 13,368 Feb 2 251 64 155 13,447 79 Feb 3 249 56 122 13,548 101 Feb 6 325 82 113 13,691 143 Feb 7 281 70 140 13,793 102 Feb 8 516 138 214 14,013 220 Feb 10 234 63 94 14,108 95 Feb 13 314 106 133 14,187 79 Feb 14 281 85 147 14,273 86 Feb 15 254 60 112 14,365 92 Feb 16 252 94 110 14,411 46 Feb 17 225 84 148 14,436 25 Feb 20 317 133 141 14,526 90 Feb 22 239 96 135 14,664 138 Feb 23 222 67 108 14,709 45 Feb 24 220 88 112 14,775 66 Feb 27 294 129 107 14,931 156 Feb 28 294 120 179 15,012 81
In two months we have added almost 50% more inventory to the total amount of Real Estate for sale. Each and every single business day this year has seen more properties listed than sold.
And only now is the Housing Bubble truly going mainstream.
On the right you will see we have added a tracking box for daily inventory totals. Will the onslaught of listings continue through what should prime selling time known as the 'Spring Market'?
At what point does inventory have significant impact on prices... 18,000? 20,000?
We will keep daily track on the left to chart this trend.
Hat tip to wreckonomics for the graphic above.
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So much great economic news today... looks like we arnt going to need silver or gold much longer. Wheeww... glad to know everything is going to be okay after all.
ReplyDeleteIt's a great question but for prices falling, it's the reverse of first expectation. For sellers, the dilusion of percieved value lags reality and those sellers will hold onto the dream of pricing of the past for some time, trying to catch the falling knife. I say its two years before it's widely accepted by sellers that prices have "really actually fallen in my neighbourhood" for the most part. As what buyers are prepared to pay will have actually gone down, this will result in substantial inventory gains at the start of the cycle while the new reality comes to hold. The small percentage that have to sell for whatever reason, will take the hit and start to set the stage for the new market pricing, and years of housing deflation as nominal value melts away.
ReplyDeleteCanAmerican.