Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Wed Post#1: Inventory Listings


Back on Saturday we made a post about the surge in Vancouver Real Estate listings inventory and asked what Macleans had stated on their magazine cover: Is it time to panic?

We noted that the blog Vancouver Condo Info was reporting daily updates on sales and listings with information provided by local realtor Paul B.

Those listings numbers have been telling an interesting tale since the beginning of the year.

On January 3rd, 2012 there was a total inventory of 10,671 listings.

By February 1, 2012 that number had soared to 13,368.

As of today we cracked the 15,000 mark with a total of 15,012.

Most of the surge came in January, but the trend has continued in February as listings of properties for sale are far outpacing properties sold. Take a look at data posted so far for in the month of February:


Date   Listing  Price(+-)  Sold   Inv    Inv(+-) 
Feb 1     305      74        38   13,368  
Feb 2     251      64       155   13,447    79
Feb 3     249      56       122   13,548   101
Feb 6     325      82       113   13,691   143
Feb 7     281      70       140   13,793   102
Feb 8     516     138       214   14,013   220
Feb 10    234      63        94   14,108    95
Feb 13    314     106       133   14,187    79
Feb 14    281      85       147   14,273    86
Feb 15    254      60       112   14,365    92
Feb 16    252      94       110   14,411    46
Feb 17    225      84       148   14,436    25
Feb 20    317     133       141   14,526    90
Feb 22    239      96       135   14,664   138
Feb 23    222      67       108   14,709    45
Feb 24    220      88       112   14,775    66
Feb 27    294     129       107   14,931   156
Feb 28    294     120       179   15,012    81

In two months we have added almost 50% more inventory to the total amount of Real Estate for sale.  Each and every single business day this year has seen more properties listed than sold.

And only now is the Housing Bubble truly going mainstream.

On the right you will see we have added a tracking box for daily inventory totals.  Will the onslaught of listings continue through what should prime selling time known as the 'Spring Market'?

At what point does inventory have significant impact on prices... 18,000? 20,000?

We will keep daily track on the left to chart this trend.

Hat tip to wreckonomics for the graphic above.

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2 comments:

  1. So much great economic news today... looks like we arnt going to need silver or gold much longer. Wheeww... glad to know everything is going to be okay after all.

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  2. It's a great question but for prices falling, it's the reverse of first expectation. For sellers, the dilusion of percieved value lags reality and those sellers will hold onto the dream of pricing of the past for some time, trying to catch the falling knife. I say its two years before it's widely accepted by sellers that prices have "really actually fallen in my neighbourhood" for the most part. As what buyers are prepared to pay will have actually gone down, this will result in substantial inventory gains at the start of the cycle while the new reality comes to hold. The small percentage that have to sell for whatever reason, will take the hit and start to set the stage for the new market pricing, and years of housing deflation as nominal value melts away.

    CanAmerican.

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