To be fair, inventory always expands in the first 4-6 months of the year and then subsides in the later half. The real story is the fact that there has never been this much inventory at this time of year, and the pace of expansion has been startling compared to other annual cycles.
It normally takes multiple years of inventory accumulation to equal a bust. This year it started high and went higher. When a downturn comes, that will happen year after year. Whether or not the price declines really depends on the MOI.
In the late 1990's people bought even though the price was falling because costs were low compared to rent. People are doing the same in the US today. But it also depends on how many people have money during the bust. Many people have already bought, and many incomes are tied to the real estate industry. This obviously makes a bust much worse.
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